RT Journal Article
A1 Jasper-Tönnies, Alrun
A1 Hellmers, Sandra
A1 Einfalt, Thomas
A1 Strehz, Alexander
A1 Fröhle, Peter
T1 Ensembles of radar nowcasts and COSMO-DE-EPS for urban flood management
JF Water Science and Technology
JO wst
YR 2018
DO 10.2166/wst.2018.079
JF Water Science and Technology
VO 2017
IS 1
SP 27
OP 35
SN 0273-1223
AB Sophisticated strategies are required for flood warning in urban areas regarding convective heavy rainfall events. An approach is presented to improve short-term precipitation forecasts by combining ensembles of radar nowcasts with the high-resolution numerical weather predictions COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service. The combined ensemble forecasts are evaluated and compared to deterministic precipitation forecasts of COSMO-DE. The results show a significantly improved quality of the short-term precipitation forecasts and great potential to improve flood warnings for urban catchments. The combined ensemble forecasts are produced operationally every 5 min. Applications involve the Flood Warning Service Hamburg (WaBiHa) and real-time hydrological simulations with the model KalypsoHydrology.
RD 2/19/2019
UL https://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2018.079