Accurate and reliable prediction of groundwater level is a critical component in coastal water management. It is important to find a suitable model with acceptable accuracy. This paper presents a comparative study with seasonal decomposition method of time series analysis and GM (1,1) method, which are applied to test the model accuracy by simulating groundwater levels of two representative wells located at a coastal aquifer in Fujian Province, South China. The average monthly groundwater level was monitored during 2006–2011, the data set from 2006–2010 was used for model establishment, and that of 2011 used for predicting the dynamic change of groundwater level. The results indicate that the multiplicative model fits better than the additive model for seasonal decomposition method. Finally, the effectiveness of the model and prediction accuracy was evaluated based on root mean square error (RMSE) and regression coefficient (R2). From the obtained results, it is concluded that the GM (1,1) method can be a promising tool to simulate and forecast groundwater level and serve as an alternative physically based model.
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9 December 2015
This article was originally published in
Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua
Article Contents
Research Article|
July 14 2015
Stochastic simulation of groundwater dynamics based on grey theory and seasonal decomposition model in a coastal aquifer of South China
Qingchun Yang;
1Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
E-mail: [email protected]
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Yanli Wang;
Yanli Wang
1Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
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Jianing Zhang;
Jianing Zhang
1Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
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Jordi Delgado Martín
Jordi Delgado Martín
2Escuela de Ingenieros de Caminos, Universidad de A Coruña, Campus de Elviña, 15192, Spain
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Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua (2015) 64 (8): 947–957.
Article history
Received:
April 05 2015
Accepted:
June 08 2015
Citation
Qingchun Yang, Yanli Wang, Jianing Zhang, Jordi Delgado Martín; Stochastic simulation of groundwater dynamics based on grey theory and seasonal decomposition model in a coastal aquifer of South China. Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua 9 December 2015; 64 (8): 947–957. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2015.047
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