Asbestos cement (AC) pipes are among the oldest assets in many water supply networks. With increasing failure rates and cost consequences, asset management tools are required to pre-empt unplanned failures and schedule future replacement at the most cost-effective time during service. This paper develops a physical probabilistic failure model for AC pipes under combined internal pressure and external loading. Uncertainty in the degradation process is accounted for using the Weibull extreme value probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to estimate the probability of pipe failure as ageing proceeds. In the final stage of the model, a cost/benefit analysis is conducted to determine optimal scheduling of future inspection and replacement activities. The end result is a potentially useful asset management methodology in which both the probable physical lifetime and the economic lifetime of an AC pipe can be estimated.
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Research Article|
June 01 2008
Failure prediction and optimal scheduling of replacements in asbestos cement water pipes
Paul Davis
;
1
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia
E-mail: paul.davis@csiro.au
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Dhammika De Silva
;
Dhammika De Silva
1
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia
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David Marlow
;
David Marlow
1
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia
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Magnus Moglia
;
Magnus Moglia
1
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia
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Scott Gould
;
Scott Gould
1
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia
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Stewart Burn
Stewart Burn
1
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Division of Land and Water, 37 Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia
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Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua (2008) 57 (4): 239-252.
Article history
Received:
February 12 2007
Accepted:
August 21 2007
Citation
Paul Davis, Dhammika De Silva, David Marlow, Magnus Moglia, Scott Gould, Stewart Burn; Failure prediction and optimal scheduling of replacements in asbestos cement water pipes. Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua 1 June 2008; 57 (4): 239–252. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2008.035
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Paul Davis, Dhammika De Silva, David Marlow, Magnus Moglia, Scott Gould, Stewart Burn; Failure prediction and optimal scheduling of replacements in asbestos cement water pipes. Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua 1 June 2008; 57 (4): 239–252. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2008.035
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