Evaluating the effectiveness of smart water management systems in enhancing the resilience and sustainability of water infrastructure in Nigeria

Ensuring access to safe and affordable drinking water is fundamental for sustaining life and supporting the global development framework (Bain et al. 2014). Central to this framework is the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6.1 (SDG 6.1), which aims to achieve universal and equitable water access for all by 2030 (United Nations 2015). This goal is integral to the global sustainability agenda, intersecting with other SDGs focused on education, economic growth, and environmental sustainability (UN-Water 2016; Satterthwaite et al. 2020; Aly et al. 2022). However, escalating challenges from climate-induced droughts, floods, pollution, alongside rapid population growth and urbanization, intensify pressures on water infrastructure assets (Misra 2014; Sachidananda et al. 2016; Gupta et al. 2020). These challenges highlight the urgent need for innovative technologies and adaptable solutions that can effectively respond to changing environmental conditions and demographic demands, ensuring sustainable water access for all (Ramos et al. 2019).

In response to these escalating challenges, many countries are increasingly adopting smart water management systems (Gupta et al. 2020). These systems leverage advancements in the Internet of Things (IoT) to revolutionize water management and distribution (Ramos et al. 2019; Singh & Ahmed 2021). Recent studies, including those by Fatehi-Nobarian et al. (2023), and Fatehi-Nobarian & Fard Moradinia (2024), highlight the effectiveness of advanced modeling techniques, such as wavelet–artificial neural network (ANN) hybrid models and harmony search algorithms. These models optimize hydraulic operations and predict seepage in earthen dams, offering more precise, cost-effective solutions that enhance the forecasting and management of water-related challenges. Smart systems improve the efficiency of water management, promotes sustainable water use, and enable detection and management of potential issues like leaks or contamination (Ramos et al. 2019; Adeoti et al. 2024a; Olatunde et al. 2024). The shift toward smart water management systems represents a critical evolution in the approach to water sustainability, embodying a tech-forward solution to some of the most pressing environmental and water resources management challenges of our time.

However, developing countries face challenges more complex than those in developed nations, grappling not only with global climate change threats but also with infrastructural deficiencies that cannot meet the escalating water demands of rapidly growing populations (Adeniran et al. 2021, 2023, 2024a; Olatunde et al. 2024). These challenges are further exacerbated by a high failure rate of existing water infrastructure, frequently causing service disruptions and inefficiencies that stall progress, despite increased efforts and investments (Adeoti et al. 2023). This infrastructural inadequacy undermines water security and hampers economic development and health outcomes, perpetuating a cycle of adversity (Hope et al. 2020). Therefore, adopting smart water management strategies in these regions must be tailored to address both universal environmental challenges and unique local infrastructural deficits.

Smart water management in developing countries requires strategic implementation to tackle the unique complexities affecting water infrastructure sustainability. Highlighting these complexities, Olatunde et al. (2024) compare smart water management systems in Africa with those in developed regions such as the United States, elucidating the distinct challenges that developing nations face. Nigeria, Africa's most populous country and severely impacted by water management issues, serves as a pivotal case study. This context positions Nigeria as an ideal location to assess the efficacy of smart water management systems and gain insights into overcoming sustainability challenges in developing regions, underscoring the significance of our study.

Recognizing the multifaceted challenges to infrastructure sustainability, we adopted a transdisciplinary approach that integrates technical, environmental, social, and economic perspectives (Lawrence & Després 2004; Brandt et al. 2013). Utilizing ecological systems theory for nuanced community selection and Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory for dynamic infrastructure design, our methodology facilitated a comprehensive framework that addresses socio-ecological interactions. Engagement with local experts ensured that our solutions were both innovative and culturally appropriate. This integrative approach resulted in the development of a technologically sophisticated smart water kiosk, attuned to the cultural and economic realities of Nigerian public boreholes.

In Nigeria, boreholes are essential for tapping into extensive groundwater reserves, to supply domestic and communal water needs. However, these systems often face technical failures and socio-political challenges that impair their efficiency (Andres et al. 2018; Adeniran et al. 2021; Adeoti et al. 2024a). This research examines a smart water kiosk as a strategic solution to enhance the use of borehole water. The primary objective is to assess the effectiveness of smart water management systems in improving resilience, reducing failure rates, and ensuring sustainability in an underserved Nigerian community.

Key metrics detailed in the methodology section of this study were analyzed to achieve our research objectives. Utilizing a transdisciplinary framework, this study addresses both technical and socio-economic aspects of smart water solutions, ensuring contextually relevant and sustainable approaches. This systematic analysis, the first of its kind in applied research, offers actionable insights into addressing infrastructure deficits and failures in Nigeria and similar socio-economic regions.

The findings from our study are poised to significantly advance access to safe and affordable drinking water in Nigeria and have implications for similar global regions, contributing to the discourse on sustainable water management and infrastructure resilience. This research aligns with national and international development goals, including the UN's SDG 6.1, and demonstrates the scalability of smart water management systems to address widespread infrastructure challenges.

This research employs a transdisciplinary theoretical framework, integrating academic theories with practical insights from industry experts and local community experiences (Robinson 2008). This approach ensures that the smart water management systems developed are scientifically robust and tailored to meet the specific needs and conditions of the study community. By addressing complex water management challenges, the aim is to create solutions that are effective, sustainable, and contextually relevant.

Employing a case study design, this study explores the effectiveness of a smart water kiosk in an underserved Nigerian community. The case study method allows for detailed analysis of operational metrics and their impact on the community's water infrastructure, resilience, and sustainability. The definition of ‘sustainability’ within this research encompasses the durability of the infrastructure, its resilience to environmental changes, and its capacity to enhance community well-being by providing safe drinking water. Crucially, it includes the infrastructure's ability to remain functional throughout its designated lifespan, generating enough funds to cover operational, maintenance, and repair costs (Adeoti et al. 2024b).

The selection of key operational metrics – specifically the self-sustainability rating (SSR), sustainability rating (SR), and reliability rating – reflects a strategic approach to quantifying the performance of the smart water kiosk. These primary performance metrics, complemented by additional metrics such as revenue water, non-revenue water (NRW), water credit, overall water dispensed (WD), and overall kiosk usage, were meticulously chosen to provide detailed insights into the operational dynamics of the kiosk. Collectively, these metrics enable a comprehensive evaluation of its performance. This detailed assessment not only underscores the kiosk's financial viability and operational reliability but also highlights its social impact, offering critical insights into operational challenges and presenting data-driven solutions.

• SSR: This metric quantifies the infrastructure's ability to cover all operational and maintenance costs through revenue from water sales, without reliance on external funding.

  
• SR: Measures the ability of the infrastructure to cover operational and maintenance costs through combined revenue streams, including water sales and external support such as donations and government funding

  

• Revenue water: Income from water sales over the period N.

  Expenses: Total cost of operation, maintainance & repair over the period N

  N: Total number of days in the period

• Support: Income from donations and other contributions, excluding revenue from water sales

• Reliability rating: Evaluates the functionality of the kiosk over time, reflecting its dependability and capacity to provide uninterrupted service.

• Total operational days: Total number of days in the period N

• Days with interruptions: Days of service disruption or failure during the N period

• Overall WD:

  
• Water credit:

  
• NRW:

  

Utilizing the ecological systems theory adapted by Crawford (2020), the Abeku Community in Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, was selected from 1,696 communities assessed by Adeoti et al. (2024a). Abeku, with significant water-related challenges and prevalent poverty, exemplified by reliance on unhygienic water sources, provided a pertinent setting for testing the water kiosk's impact and scalability. Community engagement was essential, beginning with pre-construction consultations that incorporated local inputs into the kiosk's design and continuing with their active participation in operational feedback. This involvement ensured the kiosk adapted to local needs and facilitated dynamic system refinement. A community-nominated kiosk attendant, employed full-time, played a pivotal role in bridging communication between the research team and the community, providing crucial feedback and community insights to adjust kiosk operational strategies.

The kiosk utilizes advanced IoT technology and algorithmic software to remotely monitor and analyze key operational metrics, adapting to environmental and social changes to meet community needs. This setup ensures the kiosk is effectively tailored to achieve the research objectives.

The system's scientific and practical robustness is underpinned by a framework built on prior research, including operational metrics derived from Adeoti et al. (2024b)'s sustainability research. This study employed a Likert scale questionnaire to analyze 265 sustainability factors, forming a solid foundation for applying SSR and SR to assess infrastructure sustainability. The integration of rigorous, evidence-based frameworks with modern technologies and active collaboration with local experts and users validates the kiosk's scientific and practical relevance, exemplifying the transdisciplinary approach of this study.

Strategically placed within a 10- to 15-min walk for 1,000 of the estimated 2,200 community members, the kiosk's location maximizes accessibility and operational efficacy, operating 12 h daily throughout the week.

Data collection period: Data were systematically collected from the smart water kiosk over 1,095 days (3 years), from May 21, 2021, to May 19, 2024. This period was chosen to encompass a full range of operational scenarios, which is critical in settings like Nigeria where infrastructure often fails within such a timeframe (Khan et al. 2018). Monitoring the kiosk over these years was vital for capturing detailed data on wear and tear and other technical issues, providing an in-depth evaluation of the effectiveness of smart water management strategies in enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Data collection methods: Data collection over the 1,095-day period at the smart water kiosk was conducted through a combination of automated and manual methods, ensuring continuous and comprehensive data acquisition. Automated data were gathered via IoT devices, while manual entries were recorded daily by the kiosk attendant. The detailed methodologies for both data collection and subsequent analysis, utilizing the Target 6.1 software with various statistical techniques for real-time analysis, are provided below.

Automated data collection: The smart water kiosk utilizes IoT technology provided by Farmbot, an Australian IoT company, to monitor and record key operational data such as the volume of WD, tank water levels, and overall system functionality. The data are transmitted to the Farmbot system. The Application Programming Interface (API) of the Farmbot system is integrated with the Target 6.1 Software, an algorithmic platform developed by an Australia-based research and development company, which facilitates real-time analysis and comparison of both automated and manually entered data.

Manual data collection: Concurrently, with IoT measurements, the kiosk attendant manually collects daily data on essential user metrics such as water credit and revenue water, which is entered into the Target 6.1 software. This software validates the manually reported data by cross-referencing it with the overall WD as recorded by IoT technology.

Anomaly detection and data integrity: When IoT data are unavailable, the Target 6.1 software employs the predictive formula outlined below to estimate WD in real-time, ensuring data continuity. This approach also helps detect erroneous inputs, as predicted values typically align closely with actual IoT data. Significant deviations from predicted and IoT values would prompt a thorough investigation to identify and rectify the cause. Discrepancies are meticulously analyzed, and any detected anomalies were corrected or removed from the dataset to ensure accuracy. This method effectively manages and rectifies data anomalies, ensuring the integrity of our research findings.

• Formula validation: The predictive formula is validated against actual IoT data from periods when IoT was operational, ensuring its accuracy and reliability under real-world conditions.

• Utility during IoT downtimes: The formula continues to monitor and estimate water usage when IoT is offline, maintaining essential data continuity for system management.

• Combined use with IoT: By merging formula-based predictions with IoT data, the approach enhances data integrity, enabling the identification and investigation of anomalies and outliers.

• Methodological uncertainties: The formula's primary limitation is its inability to immediately detect sudden outliers caused by external factors such as community gatherings or holidays, which can significantly alter usage patterns.

• Mitigation of uncertainties: To mitigate this, the strategy involves minimizing IoT downtimes and relying on the synergy between formula-based predictions and IoT data, which collectively improve data accuracy and reliability.

Method of data analysis: This study utilizes the Target 6.1 software system, designed for comprehensive real-time analysis of various water management metrics such as revenue water, NRW, water credit, and total WD. Employing analytical techniques like descriptive statistics and time-series scatter plots, the system is crucial for performing comparative and trend analysis and for assessing the impact of these metrics. It facilitates effective visualization and contextual evaluation of data trends and temporal variations.

Furthermore, the Target 6.1 software allows the kiosk attendant to manually input data, such as revenue water, which is automatically synchronized with data from the Farmbot IoT for robust real-time analysis. This real-time analysis is essential for the immediate verification of manual entries, enhancing data accuracy and reliability by swiftly enabling identification and correction of any discrepancies. This feature is vital in dynamically responding to community interactions with the kiosk, which significantly influence metric evaluations. For instance, an increase in kiosk usage due to a community event was quickly detected and analyzed to understand the surge's causes, enriching the dataset for ongoing analysis and offering insights into external factors impacting the kiosk's operation.

Real-time analysis of evaluated metrics enhances the management of the smart water kiosk, facilitating prompt identification and correction of operational inefficiencies. This targeted analysis is crucial for progressing toward key performance indicators, specifically aiming to achieve a SSR of 100% and a high reliability rating. These metrics are fundamental in measuring the success and long-term viability of the kiosk.

Despite the theoretical capacity to serve up to 1,000 people daily from a community of 2,200, based on the UN's recommendation of 20 L per person per day (Howard et al. 2020), actual usage was significantly low, averaging about 7.63% of the total capacity. This notable underutilization underscores the discrepancy between potential and actual water use, reflecting a complex interplay of factors that influence consumption rates.

The investigation into the underutilization of the smart water kiosk uncovered key challenges that hinder its full potential:

• Proximity: Although the kiosk is suitably located within 10 to 15-minute walking distance for approximately 1,000 of the estimated 2,200 people in the community, many households within this radius still find the distance inconvenient.

• Persistent underutilization across payment periods: while usage dropped significantly during the paid period, underutilization persisted even during free periods. average daily usage was 1,898 L (9.49% of the kiosk's 20,000-L capacity) during the initial free period, which fell to 578 L (2.89%) during the paid period, and rose slightly to 1,821 L (9.11%) in the final free period (see supplementary material, items 2 and 3, figures s2 and s3).

• Dry and rainy seasons: seasonal variations show slightly higher usage during the dry season (December to February), averaging 1,747 L per day (8.74% of capacity), compared to 1,454 L per day (7.27%) during the rainy season (March to November) (Kirk-Greene et al. 2024). Despite this increase, utilization remained significantly below capacity during both seasons (see Supplementary material, Item 1 and Figure S1).

• Preference for unsafe alternative water sources: Residents predominantly use unprotected wells, considered unsafe and unhygienic by national and UN standards for safe drinking water. These sources are favored due to their proximity and convenience, illustrating a community preference for accessibility over quality. Despite the visibly unsafe conditions of these water sources, residents report no negative health effects from their long-term use. The absence of adverse health effects, despite using wells deemed unsafe, contradicts formal definitions of water poverty that label these communities as water-poor. This disparity highlights the need to revise how water poverty is assessed, ensuring evaluations reflect the actual conditions and perceptions of the communities.

As detailed in Items 2 and 3 of the Supplementary material, the estimated average daily water usage during the water credit period was 1,831 L, which decreased to 578 L during the paid period. This represents a 68.4% decrease in usage. This significant drop highlights the economic challenges within the community, with many residents either unable or unwilling to pay even the nominal fee of 25 Naira per 25-L jerrican (approximately $0.06 USD). This finding underscores the need for strategies to enhance community willingness to pay and supports the implementation of policies that provide federal and state subsidies for those who cannot afford water costs.

The SSR of the kiosk was 22%, indicating that revenue from water sales accounted for 22% of its operational, maintenance, and repair costs, as depicted in Figure S4 of the Supplementary material. Although this is below the desired 100% SSR, it is notable, particularly since some developed countries, such as Italy, report recovery rates below 44% (Reynaud 2016). Traditionally, service costs in these contexts are subsidized by donor agencies and government budgets (Erm 2003). This 22% cost recovery reflects a partial willingness within the community to pay for water services. Strategies to enhance SSR could include increased community education on the benefits of sustainable infrastructure.

This transition caused a complete loss of revenue water, critically impacting the kiosk's ability to cover operational, maintenance, and repair costs, as the community was no longer willing to pay for kiosk water due to the alternative free-use well. To prevent the abandonment of the kiosk, water was subsequently offered for free as credit, causing the SSR to plummet from 22% to zero.

This scenario also highlights the missed opportunity to educate the community on the importance of paying for water, critical for securing funds needed to sustain water infrastructure assets. Moreover, the free-use well, lacking a structured revenue model for maintenance, risks disrepair and abandonment, compounding sustainability challenges across the community (Adeoti et al. 2024a). These dynamics underscore the need for coordinated strategies among aid organizations to ensure the long-term sustainability of infrastructure projects.

Analysis of NRW showed minimal variation between free and paid periods, with NRW remaining high at 40.75 and 41.8%, respectively, as detailed in Items 5 and 6 and Figures S5 and S6 of the Supplementary material. This consistency contradicts the assumption, argued by Liemberger & Farley (2005), that charging for water could significantly reduce water wastage. Our data suggest that NRW rates are consistent regardless of the pricing strategy, supporting Van den Berg's (2014) assertion that effective metering, not just pricing strategies, is crucial for managing NRW. Implementing technologies like ‘Automatic Shutdown Devices’ for accurate metering could offer a more effective strategy. Future pilots should explore the efficacy of such technologies in reducing NRW.

Analysis of weekly water consumption at the smart water kiosk shows the lowest usage on Mondays at 12.77% and the highest on Sundays at 18.1%, as illustrated in Figure S7 of the Supplementary material. This trend suggests Monday as the optimal day for maintenance activities such as borehole flushing and tank washing, to minimize user disruption. Implementing smart water management systems nationally could facilitate strategic maintenance scheduling, boost operational efficiency, and ensure uninterrupted service. This approach highlights the value of real-time data in enhancing water infrastructure management and user satisfaction.

The smart water kiosk demonstrated significant operational success, maintaining a 97.1% reliability rate by functioning effectively for 1,063 out of 1,095 days. This high level of reliability was achieved through continuous monitoring and maintenance facilitated by IoT-based technologies. These systems were instrumental in detecting and addressing operational issues promptly, such as underground leakages, and optimizing the timing for routine maintenance without service disruption, thereby ensuring minimal impact on system reliability.

Moreover, despite an initial drop to a 0% SSR due to aid overlap, meaning the kiosk cannot self-sustain without external support, the kiosk achieved a 100% SR supported entirely by external funding, covering all operational costs as detailed in Figure S8 of the Supplementary material.

The operational efficacy of IoT in our study aligns with the theoretical frameworks proposed by Lee et al. (2015), who advocate for integrating ICT with smart water grids to enhance urban water management systems. Similarly to our findings, Lee et al. (2015) suggest that ICT integration can significantly streamline operational processes and enhance efficiency in managing water resources within smart cities.

Moreover, the empirical results of our study serve as a practical benchmark for assessing theoretical models on smart water management systems. For instance, the models developed by Fatehi-Nobarian et al. (2023) have demonstrated effectiveness in optimizing hydraulic operations and predicting seepage in earth dams using advanced meta-heuristic and wavelet–ANN hybrid models in water management. Such theoretical models could leverage our methodology, which offers a practical framework for evaluating the effectiveness of theoretical models in real-life scenarios.

Overall, our research demonstrates the effectiveness of smart water management systems in enhancing the resilience and sustainability of water infrastructure by identifying new challenges such as infrastructure underutilization and aid overlap – phenomena previously undocumented in the literature – and providing empirical data for data-driven solutions. By leveraging these technologies, our study advances the discourse on integrating innovative solutions to enhance water infrastructure resilience and sustainability in Nigeria and similar socio-economic regions globally, offering strategic insights for policy development and further technological enhancements.

Our extensive three-year study provides critical insights into the efficacy of smart water management systems, revealing essential strategies for their broader application. The findings highlight the necessity of diverse funding models, combining government subsidies, donations, and user fees for sustainability. Engaging communities in system design and operation is crucial to ensure that systems are well-adapted to meet local needs. Additionally, real-time IoT monitoring proves essential for prompt issue detection, enabling proactive repairs and infrastructure reliability. Findings on infrastructure underutilization suggest revising demand assessment methodologies to accurately identify water-poor communities and actual infrastructure needs.

• Enhanced household-level demand analysis: Develop techniques for precise demand analysis at the household level to prevent infrastructure underutilization and maximize resource efficiency. Predictive models should be utilized for accurate infrastructure demand forecasting (Adeoti et al. 2024b).

• Institutionalizing smart water management: Mandate smart system integration in national water projects to replicate the high reliability observed in this study.

• Targeted financial support and subsidies: Support water infrastructure that is unable to achieve 100% SSR, helping it reach 100% SR like the smart water kiosk in this study.

• Iterative research and development: Promote ongoing innovation in water management, treating each project as a pilot to refine practices based on empirical data and community feedback.

• Infrastructure underutilization: The phenomenon of water infrastructure underutilization and its impact on infrastructure sustainability is under-explored. There is a need for exploration into this topic and development of a framework to solve this challenge.

• Advanced metering solutions: Explore advanced metering technologies like automatic shutdown devices to improve water conservation and reduce NRW, offering alternatives to traditional pricing strategies that have shown limited efficacy in our findings.

This study rigorously evaluated the effectiveness of smart water management systems over 3 years, employing real-time data analytics at a smart water kiosk in an underserved Nigerian community. Initially, the kiosk achieved a 22% SSR, which subsequently dropped to zero due to overlapping aid efforts, a novel challenge identified in this research. Despite several obstacles, the kiosk attained a 100% SR through external support and maintained a high reliability rating of 97.1%. This research validates the effectiveness of smart water management systems in enhancing infrastructure resilience and sustainability by identifying previously undocumented challenges and proposed solutions based on empirical findings.

Our findings make a significant contribution to the discourse on sustainable water management, providing empirical evidence and practical insights vital for policy development, future research, and technological enhancements in the Nigerian water sector. The research highlights the potential of advanced technologies to address the complex challenges faced by water infrastructure in Nigeria and similar socio-economic regions.

One of the strategic recommendations from this study is to view each water project as a pilot within a continuous research and development framework, aiming to refine practices based on empirical evidence. Future research should explore the scalability of these systems across diverse geopolitical contexts utilizing our methodology to gather longitudinal data to ensure their broad applicability. This study establishes a foundation for further research to elaborate on the parameters of smart water management effectiveness and its integration into global sustainability practices, supporting global efforts to ensure access to safe and affordable drinking water.

The support of Fairaction International Pty Ltd, The University of Technology Sydney, Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship, Clean Water for All Pty Ltd and Essential Need Projects Ltd is gratefully acknowledged.

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.

The authors declare there is no conflict.