A conceptual precipitation–runoff model was applied in five glacierized catchments in Central Asia. The model, which was first developed and applied in the Alps, works on a daily time step and yields good results in the more continental climate of the Tien Shan mountains for present-day climate conditions. Runoff scenarios for different climates (doubling of CO2) and glacierization conditions predict an increased flood risk as a first stage and a more complex picture after a complete glacier loss: a higher discharge during spring due to an earlier and more intense snowmelt is followed by a water deficiency in hot and dry summer periods. This unfavourable seasonal redistribution of the water supply has dramatic consequences for the Central Asian lowlands, which depend to a high degree on the glacier melt water for irrigation and already nowadays suffer from water shortages.
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Research Article| April 01 2006
Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate
W. Hagg, L.N. Braun, M. Weber, M. Becht; Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate. Hydrology Research 1 April 2006; 37 (2): 93–105. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2006.0008
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