A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south-western Norway. The physical interpretation of the forecasting skill is that stations close to the Norwegian coast are directly exposed to prevailing winds from the Atlantic Ocean, which constitute the principal source of predictive information from the atmosphere on the seasonal timescale.
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Research Article|
February 01 2008
Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia
Patrik Nilsson;
Patrik Nilsson
1Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Box 118, Lund, S-221 00, Sweden
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Cintia B. Uvo;
1Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Box 118, Lund, S-221 00, Sweden
E-mail: [email protected]
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Willem A. Landman;
Willem A. Landman
2South African Weather Service, Private Bag X097, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
3Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology of the University of Pretoria, South Africa
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Tinh D. Nguyen
Tinh D. Nguyen
4Institute of Environment & Resources, Technical University of Denmark, DK-2800, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
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Hydrology Research (2008) 39 (1): 17–26.
Article history
Received:
May 26 2006
Accepted:
July 06 2007
Citation
Patrik Nilsson, Cintia B. Uvo, Willem A. Landman, Tinh D. Nguyen; Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia. Hydrology Research 1 February 2008; 39 (1): 17–26. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2008.027
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