As climate change could have considerable influence on hydrology and corresponding water management, appropriate climate change inputs should be used for assessing future impacts. Although the performance of regional climate models (RCMs) has improved over time, systematic model biases still constrain the direct use of RCM output for hydrological impact studies. To address this, a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed that adjusts precipitation and temperature from RCMs to better reflect observations. Statistical properties, such as daily mean, standard deviation, distribution and frequency of precipitation days, were much improved for control periods compared to direct RCM output. DBS-adjusted precipitation and temperature from two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESA1B) transient climate projections were used as inputs to the HBV hydrological model for several river basins in Sweden for the period 1961–2100. Hydrological results using DBS were compared to results with the widely-used delta change (DC) approach for impact studies. The general signal of a warmer and wetter climate was obtained using both approaches, but use of DBS identified differences between the two projections that were not seen with DC. The DBS approach is thought to better preserve the future variability produced by the RCM, improving usability for climate change impact studies.
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Research Article|
April 01 2010
Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies
Wei Yang;
1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
E-mail: [email protected]
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Johan Andréasson;
Johan Andréasson
1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
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L. Phil Graham;
L. Phil Graham
1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
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Jonas Olsson;
Jonas Olsson
1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
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Jörgen Rosberg;
Jörgen Rosberg
1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176, Norrköping, Sweden
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Fredrik Wetterhall
Fredrik Wetterhall
2Department of Geography, King's College London, Strand, London, UK
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Hydrology Research (2010) 41 (3-4): 211–229.
Article history
Received:
December 22 2008
Accepted:
September 15 2009
Citation
Wei Yang, Johan Andréasson, L. Phil Graham, Jonas Olsson, Jörgen Rosberg, Fredrik Wetterhall; Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies. Hydrology Research 1 June 2010; 41 (3-4): 211–229. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2010.004
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