Forecasts of 10-day average inflow into the Ertan hydropower station of the Yalong river basin are needed for seasonal hydropower operation. Medium-range inflow forecasts have usually been obtained by Auto-Regressive-Moving-Average (ARMA) models, which do not utilize any precipitation forecasts. This paper presents a simple GFS-QPFs-based rainfall - runoff model (GRR) using the 10-day accumulated Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS-QPFs) run at the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In this study, 10-day accumulated GFS-QPFs over the Yalong river basin are verified by first using a three-category contingency table. Then this paper presents the results from a proposed hydrological model using 10-day accumulated GFS-QPFs. Results show that inflow forecast errors can be reduced considerably, compared with those from the currently used ARMA model by both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Finally, simulations of medium-range hydropower operation are also presented using the historical data and forecasts of 10-day average inflows into the Ertan dam during May to September 2006 to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed hydrological model using the GFS-QPFs. The simulations demonstrate that the use of GFS-QPFs has improved reservoir inflow predictions and hydropower operation of the Ertan hydropower station in the Yalong river basin during the wet season.
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Research Article|
April 09 2010
Evaluation of precipitation forecasts from NOAA global forecast system in hydropower operation
Huicheng Zhou;
1School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China
E-mail: wonderlandsh@gmail.com
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Guolei Tang;
Guolei Tang
1School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China
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Ningning Li;
Ningning Li
2Department of Computer Science and Technology, Dalian Neusoft Institute of Information, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China
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Feng Wang;
Feng Wang
1School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China
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Yajun Wang;
Yajun Wang
3Ertan Hydropower Development Company, Ltd, Chengdu 610021, Sichuan, China
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Deping Jian
Deping Jian
3Ertan Hydropower Development Company, Ltd, Chengdu 610021, Sichuan, China
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Journal of Hydroinformatics (2011) 13 (1): 81–95.
Article history
Received:
February 25 2009
Accepted:
August 26 2009
Citation
Huicheng Zhou, Guolei Tang, Ningning Li, Feng Wang, Yajun Wang, Deping Jian; Evaluation of precipitation forecasts from NOAA global forecast system in hydropower operation. Journal of Hydroinformatics 1 January 2011; 13 (1): 81–95. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2010.005
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