Short-term forecasting of urban storm water runoff in real-time using extrapolated radar rainfall data

Model-based short-term forecasting of urban storm water runoff can be applied in real-time control of drainage systems in order to optimize system capacity during rain and minimize combined sewer overflows, improve wastewater treatment or activate alarms if local flooding is impending. A novel online system, which forecasts flows and water levels in real-time with inputs from extrapolated radar rainfall data, has been developed. The fully distributed urban drainage model includes auto-calibration using online in-sewer measurements which is seen to improve forecast skills significantly. The radar rainfall extrapolation (nowcast) limits the lead time of the system to 2 hours. In this paper, the model set-up is tested on a small urban catchment for a period of 1.5 years. The 50 largest events are presented.