Uncertainty and risk in water quality modelling and management

The case is presented for increasing attention to the evaluation of uncertainty in water quality modelling practice, and for this evaluation to be extended to risk management applications. A framework for risk-based modelling of water quality is outlined and presented as a potentially valuable component of a broader risk assessment methodology. Technical considerations for the successful implementation of the modelling framework are discussed. The primary arguments presented are as follows. (1) For a large number of practical applications, deterministic use of complex water quality models is not supported by the available data and/or human resources, and is not warranted by the limited information contained in the results. Modelling tools should be flexible enough to be employed at levels of complexities which suit the modelling task, data and available resources. (2) Monte Carlo simulation has largely untapped potential for the evaluation of model performance, estimation of model uncertainty and identification of factors (including pollution sources, environmental influences and ill-defined objectives) contributing to the risk of failing water quality objectives. (3) For practical application of Monte Carlo methods, attention needs to be given to numerical efficiency, and for successful communication of results, effective interfaces are required. A risk-based modelling tool developed by the authors is introduced.