The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty.
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Research Article|
April 16 2013
Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China
Qiuan Zhu;
1Laboratory for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
E-mail: qiuan.zhu@gmail.com
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Hong Jiang;
Hong Jiang
2International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Hankou Road 22, Nanjing 210093, China
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Changhui Peng;
Changhui Peng
1Laboratory for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
3Institute of Environment Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal H3C 3P8, Canada
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Jinxun Liu;
Jinxun Liu
4Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies (SGT, Inc.), contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, 47914 252nd St., Sioux Falls, SD 57198, USA
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Xiuqin Fang;
Xiuqin Fang
5School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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Huai Chen;
Huai Chen
1Laboratory for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
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Shirong Liu
Shirong Liu
6Institute of Forest Ecology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
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Journal of Water and Climate Change (2013) 4 (3): 302–316.
Article history
Received:
November 01 2012
Accepted:
March 15 2013
Citation
Qiuan Zhu, Hong Jiang, Changhui Peng, Jinxun Liu, Xiuqin Fang, Huai Chen, Shirong Liu; Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 September 2013; 4 (3): 302–316. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2013.072
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