The impact of waterborne micro-organisms (potentially pathogenic) on public health may be exacerbated by the combined effects of climate and land use change. We used watershed modeling to assess the potential effects of climate change and future land management scenarios on microbial water quality in the Pigg River watershed, located in southwest Virginia, USA. The hydrologic simulation program in Fortran, climate forecasts from the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment, future projections for land management, and current watershed data were used to simulate a range of potential future scenarios for the period 2040–2069. Results indicate that changes in climate will have the most significant impact on microbial fate and transport, with increased loading driven by trends in seasonal and annual precipitation. High flow and low flow periods represent periods of greatest uncertainty. As climate factors are to an extent uncontrollable, adaptation measures targeting land based source loads will be required to maintain water quality within existing regulatory standards. In addition, new initiatives may need to be identified and incorporated into water policy. This is likely to have repercussions for all watershed inhabitants and stakeholders, but will assist in sustaining water quality standards and protecting human health.
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Research Article|
February 19 2015
Modeling the impacts of climate change and future land use variation on microbial transport
Rory Coffey;
1UCD School of Biosystems Engineering, Agriculture and Food Science Center, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
E-mail: [email protected]
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Brian Benham;
Brian Benham
2Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Seitz hall, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA
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Karen Kline;
Karen Kline
2Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Seitz hall, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA
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Mary Leigh Wolfe;
Mary Leigh Wolfe
1UCD School of Biosystems Engineering, Agriculture and Food Science Center, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
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Enda Cummins
Enda Cummins
1UCD School of Biosystems Engineering, Agriculture and Food Science Center, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
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Journal of Water and Climate Change (2015) 6 (3): 449–471.
Article history
Received:
April 25 2014
Accepted:
December 22 2014
Citation
Rory Coffey, Brian Benham, Karen Kline, Mary Leigh Wolfe, Enda Cummins; Modeling the impacts of climate change and future land use variation on microbial transport. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 September 2015; 6 (3): 449–471. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.049
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