The potential effects of climate change on future water budget components and streamflow in the Mississippi River (Ontario) are assessed. Analyses of historic hydrometric data indicate an increasing trend in winter streamflows due to the rising winter air temperatures across the region over the latter half of the 20th century. These temperatures have resulted in reduced snow accumulation and earlier spring snowmelt. Projected future climate data are developed using the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model and downscaled using the change factor method for the Mississippi River watershed (Ontario). The projected future climate data are then used as input to a calibrated hydrologic model for simulation of future water balance and streamflows in this river basin. These simulations predict a gradual annual rate of change of: 0.1% increase in total precipitation; 0.2% increase in rainfall; 0.7% decrease in snowfall; 0.2% increase in potential evapotranspiration; 0.1% decrease in soil moisture; 1.4% increase in water deficit; 0.5% increase in streamflow during winter months; and 0.3% decrease in summer streamflows. Cyclic pattern analysis of the historic streamflow records suggests the existence of pronounced 3-year and 12-year cycles, providing short-term streamflow forecasting opportunities for optimum reservoir management operations during the wet-year/dry-year cycles.
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Research Article|
April 08 2015
Reservoir management under predictable climate variability and change
Ahmad Asnaashari;
Ahmad Asnaashari
1Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development, Edmonton, AB T7X 3B4, Canada
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Bahram Gharabaghi;
2School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Room 2417, Thornbrough Building, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
E-mail: [email protected]
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Ed McBean;
Ed McBean
2School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Room 2417, Thornbrough Building, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
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Ali Akbar Mahboubi
Ali Akbar Mahboubi
2School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Room 2417, Thornbrough Building, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
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Journal of Water and Climate Change (2015) 6 (3): 472–485.
Article history
Received:
March 27 2013
Accepted:
March 03 2015
Citation
Ahmad Asnaashari, Bahram Gharabaghi, Ed McBean, Ali Akbar Mahboubi; Reservoir management under predictable climate variability and change. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 September 2015; 6 (3): 472–485. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.053
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