Abstract

The present study assessed the impact of climate change in the Anandapur catchment of Baitarani River basin, India, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The future climatic alterations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e. 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, are quantified by an ensemble of two different CMIP5 models, i.e. CNRM-CM5.0, GFDL-CM3.0. The outcomes of this study reveal that the future rainfall and temperature may experience an increasing trend with gradual shifting of monsoon from mid-June to mid-May. The average annual streamflow experienced the highest increase during the period 2071–2095, whereas the highest average annual ET is observed for the period 2046–2070 under both the RCPs and resulting in comparatively slower GWR over the basin. In order to implement suitable adaptation strategies for possible flood scenario on the concerned study basin, three critical sub-basins namely, sub-basin 1, 4, and 5, were identified. Furthermore, the altered streamflow and ET dynamics may result in a significant shifting in the conventional agricultural practice in the coming future time scales. Conclusively, the outcomes of this study have potential implications for policy makers in formulating the policies related to sustainable water resources management in future scenarios.

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