The Northwest of Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an arid and semi-arid region. This study employs wavelet analysis, dry area coverage, drought frequency, and Mann–Kendall test trend to investigates the evolution characteristics of drought in the Northwest of YRB and the impact of macro climatic conditions on drought. The scale of season and year Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was mostly represented as alternating dry and wet weather in this region. SPEI decreased significantly in each season, indicating increased drought. The drought situation changed abruptly in 1968, and the change was more obvious around 2000. Drought trend in autumn is more noticeable than in the other three seasons. The average annual dry area covers 34%. The drought frequency in each station at the annual scale was between 30.78% and 46.15%, its high values are mainly concentrated in the western region. The main cycles of annual SPEI changes are 37 and 5 years; spring is 45 and 10 years; summer is 20 and 5 years; autumn is 36, 10, and 5 years; winter is 45, 22, and 5 years. Furthermore, drought occurrence and changes are closely related to large-scale climatic factors, with El Niño-Southern Oscillation having the greatest impact on drought.

  • Calculation of multi-scale SPEI based on the Penman–Montieth model.

  • Employing Morlet wavelet analysis, dry area coverage, drought frequency, Mann–Kendall sudden change examination, and other methods to conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the region's spatial and temporal distribution of drought.

  • Using cross-wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence analysis to enhance the research of the response of drought to large-scale climatic influences.

Graphical Abstract

Graphical Abstract
Graphical Abstract

Drought is a major natural cause of agricultural, economic, and environmental devastation (Cook et al. 2014). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report, global warming has resulted in a significant increase in global drought events over the last century (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2021). Furthermore, drought is one of the most destructive climatic phenomena, which can occur in almost all climatic regimes (Band et al. 2022).

Extreme drought events have had a significant impact on water resources, ecological water environment, and agricultural production in many regions of China (Mishra & Singh 2010; Esfahanian et al. 2017). Drought will undoubtedly occur after prolonged periods of no precipitation, but its occurrence, extent, and duration are difficult to predict. As a result, objectively quantifying their characteristics is difficult. The drought happening in most parts of the world depends mostly on lack of precipitation and increased temperature profoundly (Shamshirband et al. 2020). Arid and semi-arid regions are more sensitive to climate change (Huang et al. 2016a). As the global climate continues to warm, droughts in these places are anticipated to grow more frequent and severe (Dai 2013). This implies that these areas will experience more difficulties.

Hydrological drought results in a water deficit with river runoff insufficient to meet water supply needs in a given period. A drought index is an effective way to monitor hydrological drought (Mishra & Singh 2011). These dry and semi-arid areas have been the subject of much research and monitoring of drought conditions. Kousari et al. (2014) used the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) to research the trend of drought severity in the areas mainly covered by arid and semi-arid climate conditions in Iran. The results show that the decreasing trend of RDI time series means the worsening of drought severity (Lashkari et al. 2021) investigated the effects of changes in precipitation and temperature on spatio-temporal drought and humidity variations throughout the diverse (principally arid- and semi-arid) climates during recent decades using the Pedj Drought Index (PDI). The results show that droughts were more frequent than humidity events in the study area in the past, and that temperature warming was the main driver of severe droughts in history. Like many other areas in arid or semi-arid climates, the Northwest of Yellow River Basin suffers significant drought-related issues. This area's environment has changed to become drier and warmer, and as a result, the risk of drought is predicted to increase.

In studies on drought analysis and monitoring systems in the Yellow River Basin, most scholars have employed the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI; Palmer 1965) or the standardized precipitation index (SPI; McKee et al. 1993). Some researchers examined the drought detection adaptability of various satellite precipitation products using the SPI index, as well as the hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin (Liu et al. 2015; Wei et al. 2019). The results show that SPI has good application in drought monitoring. Although the SPI includes multi-scale properties, it solely examines precipitation and does not account for the impact of temperature and evapotranspiration on regional dry and wet conditions. PDSI takes rainfall and evapotranspiration into consideration, but PDSI has a fixed time scale and therefore cannot be used to assess types of droughts that occur at different time scales (Musei et al. 2021). As a result, the SPI and PDSI have several flaws in terms of monitoring the area's dry and wet conditions. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is more flexible because it is based on the SPI calculation but combines precipitation and evapotranspiration, thus, making up for the shortcomings of PDSI's fixed time scale and numerous required parameters (Tan et al. 2015). Currently, SPEI has been widely used in regional dry and wet weather monitoring (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2010). Some researchers employed the SPEI in conjunction with the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) to examine the transfer link between agricultural drought and hydrological drought time, as well as the frequency and intensity of drought based on grid division (Wang et al. 2018; Hao et al. 2021; Cao et al. 2022). The results showed that SPEI and VCI could effectively reveal the change law of meteorological drought and agricultural drought (Liu et al. 2016).

Changes in global temperature and atmospheric circulation, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Rasmusson & Wallace 1983), Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; Hurrell & Loon 1997), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; Mantua & Hare 2002), and Arctic Oscillation (AO; Thompson & Wallace 1998), have been shown in previous studies to play a major role in drought formation (Mishra & Singh 2010; Dai 2011). Exploring the evolutionary link between these factors would aid current knowledge of drought changes in the research area. As a result, it is critical to investigate the impact of macroclimate factors on regional drought, which has a significant impact on drought warning and water resource management. However, it is still unclear what atmospheric circulation index most affects the Northwest of Yellow River Basin. In this research area, there are also not many investigations on the connections between atmospheric circulation parameters and drought. Therefore, cross-wavelet analysis and cross-wavelet coherence analysis are used in this study to reveal the correlation between SPEI and large-scale factors as well as their common energy region and phase relationship.

The majority of research in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin on drought-related features focuses on the effect of rainfall on wet and dry conditions. However, with rising temperatures and, consequently, increased reference evapotranspiration, declining precipitation and severe climate change are putting more pressure on water resources and agriculture (Byakatonda et al. 2018); therefore, decision makers must have accurate information about the amount of evapotranspiration and drought risk assessment for each region (Sharafi & Ghaleni 2022). Therefore, the selection of climate parameters that affect the accurate evaluation of evapotranspiration is of great significance for the accurate evaluation of drought indicators. Moreover, the accuracy of evapotranspiration is so important that it could even provide important evidence for identifying models that more accurately estimate drought under climate change conditions. To determine monthly potential evapotranspiration, most studies (Wang et al. 2020; Cao et al. 2022) employ the Thomthwaite (Thornthwaite 1948) and Hargreaves–Samani model (Hargreaves & Samani 1985). This method, on the other hand, ignores the impact of meteorological conditions. This study uses temperature, rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, and other variables to discuss 52 meteorological stations in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin, based on previous research. Furthermore, the multi-scale SPEI analysis is based on the Penman–Monteith (P-M) model, and employs Morlet wavelet analysis (Fengying 1999), dry area coverage, drought frequency, Mann–Kendall sudden change examination (Gocic & Trajkovic 2013) to conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the region's spatial and temporal distribution of drought. The association of SPEI with large-scale climate conditions is also discussed in this study by cross-wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence analysis. These researches can help with drought evaluation and forecasting in the study area.

The Northwest of Yellow River Basin has high terrain in the west and low terrain in the east. The source area in the west has an average elevation of more than 4,000 m. The topography is dominated by plateaus, covered by glaciers and snow. Most areas receive between 200 and 650 mm of precipitation per year, with an average annual temperature of 12–14 °C. Summer temperatures are high, and precipitation decreases gradually from east to west; winter is cold and dry, water resources are scarce, and the ecological environment is fragile. Extreme drought events are common in this region as a result of human activity and climate change. Affected by geographical location and East Asian monsoon climate, hydrometeorological conditions in the Yellow River Basin are complex and changeable. Due to water scarcity and an uneven distribution of precipitation, the Yellow River Basin is one of China's drought-affected regions (Huang et al. 2015). Consequently, it is crucial to monitor the drought in the Yellow River Basin. The production, life, and environment of this region have all been severely impacted by the trend of drought intensity and persistence in recent years (Wang et al. 2018). The Northwest of Yellow River Basin is located in the Northwest of China. The region is arid and semi-arid, which is more susceptible to drought and has the basic characteristics of drought.

Data sources

In this study, 52 meteorological stations in relevant provinces around the study area were selected. The data of the maximum temperature, wind speed at 2 m height, rainfall, sunshine hours, minimum temperature and relative humidity from 1961 to 2020 of 52 meteorological stations (The location is shown in Figure 1) are from the National Meteorological Science Data Center (data.cma.cn). These meteorological data are enough for studying changes in SPEI and climatic components. This is also one of the paper's research goals.
Figure 1

Northwest of Yellow River Basin Meteorological station map. (a) Elevation and Meteorological station. (b) Rainfall contour and spatial distribution.

Figure 1

Northwest of Yellow River Basin Meteorological station map. (a) Elevation and Meteorological station. (b) Rainfall contour and spatial distribution.

Close modal

The relationship between SPEI and large-scale oceanic atmospheric circulation in the research area, including ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AO, is covered in this article. Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2) is the multivariate ENSO index, which is a novel version of the conventional Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) index. On top of the classic MEI index, it is derived using six variables as proxies for ENSO-related atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and it uses OLR data of monthly output longwave radiation (OLR) from the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR). The data time period for the MEI.v2 index is from 1979 to 2020, hence, the MEI.v2 index in this article only looks at data from 1979 to now. The other three indices are following the SPEI time series, from 1961 to the present. The data of ENSO, NAO, and PDO data is downloaded from NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) (ucar.edu). AO data is collected from NCEI (National Center for Environmental Information) (noaa.gov).

Research methods

The SPEI is used in this study to evaluate the characteristics of interdecadal, interannual, and seasonal droughts in the study area, as well as drought area coverage and frequency. It employs spatial interpolation to investigate the spatial and temporal aspects of drought in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin during the last 60 years, as well as Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann–Kendall sudden change examination to investigate drought trends and cycle characteristics. Using crossed wavelet power spectrum (Rioul & Vetterli 1991) and coherence spectrum (Torrence & Compo 1998), the impact of significant climatic influences on regional drought is investigated.

Potential evapotranspiration

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) recommends the Penman–Monteith (Allen et al. 1998) equation as the standard approach for evaluating evapontranspiration. The SPEI is calculated using the output values after the meteorological data is entered into the equation. The P-M formula is calculated using the FAO official website's suggested Calculator software, and its calculation formula is:
(1)

In this formula, is canopy net radiation (MJ·m2·d−1), and , respectively, are saturation pressure and actual vapor pressure (kPa), T is average temperature (°C), G is soil heat flux (MJ·m2·d−1), γ and are hygrometer constant (kPa·°C−1) and wind speed at 2 m height (m·s−1), respectively, is the slope of saturated water vapor pressure vs temperature curve (kPa·°C−1).

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

The calculation of the SPEI includes the time series of water surplus and deficit (Begueria et al. 2014). The SPEI uses the deficit between precipitation and evapotranspiration, as well as the degree of deviation from the average state to characterize drought. The calculation formula is:
(2)
where and are rainfall (mm) and evaporation (mm), respectively.
(3)

In this formula, is scale parameters, and , respectively, are morphological parameters and initial parameters.

The log-logistic parameter can be calculated by the L-moment method. When calculating L-moment, the parameters of the Pearson III distribution can be obtained from the following equations:
(4)
(5)
(6)
where , , , and are factorial functions and probability weighted moments, respectively.
Normalize the F(x) distribution, the SPEI calculation result is:
(7)
(8)
(9)
where W is distance weighted moment. P is the probability of exceeding a determined D value, P = 1 − F(x). If P > 0.5, then P is replaced by 1 − P and the sign of the resultant SPEI is reversed. The constants are C0 = 2.515517, C1 = 0.802853, C2 = 0.010328, d1 = 1.432788, d2 = 0.189269, and d3 = 0.001308.

The drought standard (Wang et al. 2011) is shown in Table 1.

Table 1

SPEI drought grading standard

Drought ratingSPEI value
Extremely drought <, −2.0 > 
Severe drought <− 2.0, −1.5 > 
Moderate drought <− 1.5, −1.0 > 
Light drought <− 1.0, −0.5 > 
No drought <0.5, > 
Drought ratingSPEI value
Extremely drought <, −2.0 > 
Severe drought <− 2.0, −1.5 > 
Moderate drought <− 1.5, −1.0 > 
Light drought <− 1.0, −0.5 > 
No drought <0.5, > 

The SPEI values of 3-month and 12-month time series are analyzed in this study. The four seasons are defined by SPEI_3 and are March–May, June–August, September–November, and December–February, respectively. SPEI_12 characterizes the year scale. SPEI_3 represents the short-term impact of water scarcity on drought, whereas SPEI_12 represents the interannual fluctuation features.

Dry area coverage

According to Thiessen Polygons (Thiessen 1911), the area weights of meteorological stations where drought occurs are accumulated to obtain the coverage of drought areas. The calculation formula is:
(10)
where and n are the area weight of drought meteorological sites and a total number of weather stations with drought, respectively.

Drought frequency

Drought frequency is calculated by the formula:
(11)
where and N are the number of droughts and total number of time series, respectively.

Mann–Kendall examination method

The Mann–Kendall examination method (Gocic & Trajkovic 2013) is a rank-based nonparametric trend test method. It does not require samples to conform to a certain distribution law, and the change trend is not need to follow the linear law. It is unaffected by a few outliers, and results are unaffected by partial missing data. The Mann–Kendall examination method can not only test the change trend of time series, but also test whether the time series has a sudden change.

Wavelet analysis

Climate factors will show periodic changes, so exploring the periodic changes of climate factors plays an important role in climate prediction and prevention of climate disasters. Wavelet analysis (Fengying 1999) is used to explore the periodic change law of climate elements, it not only can count the frequency components of sequence signals effectively, but also the frequency distribution in time domain can be located. Cross-wavelet analysis (Rioul & Vetterli 1991) combines the characteristics of wavelet transform and cross-spectrum analysis. Compared with Fourier transform, cross-wavelet analysis can better reflect the time–frequency domain variation characteristics and coupling oscillations of two time series (Hudgins et al. 1993). The cross-wavelet transform cannot reveal the low energy region of the two time series in the time–frequency domain, but the cross-wavelet coherence (Torrence & Compo 1998) analysis offsets this limitation (Adamowski & Prokoph 2014). Therefore, cross-wavelet analysis and cross-wavelet coherence analysis are used in this study to reveal the correlation between SPEI and large-scale factors as well as their common energy region and phase relationship. The detailed calculation method is given in Grinsted et al. (2004). In this study, Morlet is used as a complex-valued wavelet, because complex-valued wavelet has imaginary part, which can express the phase well, and Morlet wavelet is not only non-orthogonal, but also an exponential complex-valued wavelet regulated by Gaussian, which can have a good balance between the localization of time and frequency. The periodic variation law of SPEI_3 and SPEI_12, as well as the multi-time scale characteristics, are analyzed using the wavelet real part contour map and wavelet variance map of complicated Morlet wavelet analysis to disclose the cyclical characteristics of drought.

Climate change trends

Figure 2 shows a rising trend in annual average potential evapotranspiration in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin, which is linked to temperature increases in all four seasons and throughout the year. The highest and lowest points are 1,152.3 mm (1969) and 1,008.7 mm (1967), respectively. The potential evapotranspiration in the study area showed an upward trend from 1960 to 1980, and it showed a downward trend from 1981 to 2000 and an upward trend from 2000 to 2020. The trend of potential evapotranspiration varies by stages, so the overall upward trend is not significant, with a 1.95 mm every 10 years trend rate. The average annual precipitation is 401.5 mm, with a maximum of 411.3 mm in 2018 and a minimum of 254.5 mm in 2017 (1968). With a rate of 5.21 mm every 10 years, the precipitation in the research area is increasing.
Figure 2

Trend change between rainfall year and .

Figure 2

Trend change between rainfall year and .

Close modal

Analysis of SPEI change trend

Figure 3 shows the annual variation in SPEI variations. SPEI_12 has been on a declining trend since 1979, climbing slightly between 1979 and 1993. Since 1994, it has been on a declining trend, with a linear trend rate of −0.03 every 10 years. This indicates that droughts have become more frequent in the study area in the last 60 years. In 1967, the SPEI_12 value was 1.35, and in 1969, it was −1.01, which were moderately wet and moderately dry years, respectively, and the wettest and driest in the previous 60 years. UF and UB are standard normally distributed statistics, which are sequences of statistics calculated in order (in reverse order) of time series. If UF is greater than 0, the sequence shows an upward trend, while if UF is less than 0, the sequence shows a downward trend. When it exceeds the critical line, it indicates a significant upward or downward trend. If UF and UB curves intersect, and the intersection is between the critical boundary, then the moment corresponding to the intersection is the time when the mutation starts. Within the confidence interval, the UF and UB curves intersected in 1968, showing that the drought condition quickly shifted in 1968. Previously, the drought trend had been minor. The drought trend became significant after 1968, and it reached 0.05 significance level after 1974.
Figure 3

Changes in SPEI and M-K statistic in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin. (a) Annual, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, (d) Autumn, and (e) Winter.

Figure 3

Changes in SPEI and M-K statistic in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin. (a) Annual, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, (d) Autumn, and (e) Winter.

Close modal

Figure 3(b)–3(e) depicts the seasonal fluctuations in SPEI_3 and their M-K test curves. In spring, SPEI_3 has a linear trend rate of −0.05 every 10 years. The SPEI_3 value in 1967 was 1.67, which was the rainy spring in the preceding 60 years and reached a slightly humid level. The SPEI_3 reading in 2000 was −1.34, indicating considerable dryness and the driest spring in 60 years. SPEI has a linear trend rate of −0.02 every 10 years in the summer. In 1979, the SPEI_3 value was 0.98, the wettest summer in the previous 60 years, with a somewhat humid level. In 2018, the SPEI_3 rating was −1.07, indicating moderate dryness, and it was the driest summer in the past 60 years. In the autumn, the SPEI linear trend rate was −0.02 every 10 years. The SPEI_3 values in 1961 and 1972 were 1.14 and −1.62, respectively, signifying the two wettest and driest autumns, with moderately humid and severely dry conditions. In the winter, the linear trend rate of SPEI was −0.05 every 10 years. In 1999, the SPEI_3 value was −1.36, while in 2008, it was 1.45. They were the wettest and driest years on record, with moderately humid and moderately dry conditions.

To summarize, the SPEI_3 value variations in the four seasons have been trending downward for the past 60 years. The SPEI_12 drought index is on the decline, and the drought situation is becoming increasingly dire. On a long time scale, the SPEI is less affected by precipitation than by temperature. The seasonal SPEI varies a lot, and it is easily influenced by precipitation and temperature fluctuations. The variations in trend are largely consistent, and the changes in trend slope become increasingly apparent around the year 2000.

Analysis of SPEI spatial variation

The spatial distribution of the M-K test statistic Z is shown in Figure 4. It demonstrates that in SPEI_12, there are a lot of sites with a decreasing trend, and the fraction of stations with a Z value less than zero has reached 75%. Five of them reached highly significant levels, indicating that the Northwest of Yellow River Basin witnessed a dry trend from 1961 to 2020. The stations with a negative trend in SPEI_3 in spring accounted for 40% of the total, with Lintao, Lenghu, Qingshuihe, and Xifeng stations showing a considerable increasing trend. This phenomenon could be induced by increased humidification as a result of increased spring rains. In the summer (Figure 4(c)), the majority of regions showed a moderate aridification trend, with 70% of stations showing a decreasing trend in SPEI and only a few areas in the southwest and central parts showing a humidification trend. In the autumn (Figure 4(d)), most areas showed an aridification trend, with 79% of stations showing a decreasing trend in SPEI. The majority of the territories, with the exception of a few locations in Qinghai Province, exhibited signs of aridification. This occurrence could be linked to recent environmental preservation measures in Qinghai Province, as well as the increase in ice and snow meltwater and river flow caused by climate change. In the winter, 76% of stations showed a falling trend (Figure 4(e)). Only the Nuomuhong station had a substantial increase trend, whereas Huanxian and Lintao had a large decreasing trend. There was no noticeable change at the remaining stations and sites. Compared with the other three quarters, winter showed a trend of aridification from east to west.
Figure 4

Spatial trend change of SPEI in annual and seasons from 1961 to 2020. (a) Annual, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, (d) Autumn, and (e) Winter.

Figure 4

Spatial trend change of SPEI in annual and seasons from 1961 to 2020. (a) Annual, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, (d) Autumn, and (e) Winter.

Close modal

To summarize, most locations in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin have had an increase in aridity during the last 60 years, while a minor portion has experienced an increase in humidification. The aridification sites are mostly in the north-central part of the country, and a higher percentage of them passed the significance test (0.01 level). Several stations in Qinghai Province, particularly Golmud and Nuomuhong, have been humidified to significant levels on different scales. In comparison to the other three seasons, the autumn drought trend is more noticeable, followed by summer and winter, while spring has the least noticeable drought trend.

Variation trend of drought coverage area

Figure 5 shows that the drought coverage area in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin has a minor rising tendency, and the annual and seasonal drought coverage areas in the study region have not changed dramatically. The average yearly dry zone coverage is 34%, while there are 10 years where the drought coverage rate is greater than 50%. Its area coverage was 71% in 1969, the highest in the previous 60 years. There were no droughts in 1967 and 1998, as well as the drought coverage was 0. The region drought in the spring shows a little decrease trend, with an average of 33% of the area covered. There were 16 years with drought coverage of more than 50%, mostly in the 1970s and 1990s. In the summer, the average coverage rate in dry areas is 33%, with a little negative tendency. There were 12 years when area coverage was greater than 50%. In autumn, the dry area's average coverage rate was 32.6%, a little drop. There were 14 years in which the area coverage rate was greater than 50%, with the highest coverage rate of 80% in 1991. In the winter, the average coverage of the dry area is 30.9%, with a small rising tendency. There are 10 years in which the drought coverage area is greater than 50%, and the winter drought area is 0% between 1964 and 1993.
Figure 5

The approach to drought in each season from 1961 to 2020.

Figure 5

The approach to drought in each season from 1961 to 2020.

Close modal

Analysis of spatial variation of drought frequency

Figure 6 depicts the regional distribution of drought frequency over the last 60 years in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin. Each station's spring drought frequency ranges from 30.77 to 46.15%. Mazongshan Station has the highest distribution, while Shiquan Station has the lowest. From southeast to north, the area with a drought frequency of more than 25% accounts for 33.12% of the total area. During the summer, the drought frequency of each station varies from 32.69 to 44.20%, with Yuzhong Station having the greatest value and Cooperative Station having the lowest. Drought frequency more than 25% accounts for 41.59% of the area, which increases from southeast to northwest. Each station's drought frequency varies from 28.86 to 48.01% in the autumn. The cooperative station has the most value, while the Wudaoliang station has the lowest. Drought frequency more than 25% accounted for 29.61% of the total. Drought frequency has altered dramatically since summer, and it is progressively increasing from the northwest to the center and east. Each station's drought frequency varies from 23.08 to 44.22% in the winter, with Xinghai station having the highest frequency and Zhangye station having the lowest. The area with a greater than 25% drought frequency accounts for 26.48% of the overall area, steadily increasing toward the middle. The interannual drought frequency varies from 30.78 to 46.15% at each station, with the highest and lowest values occurring at Linxia and Hexi, respectively. Drought frequency more than 25% accounts for 38.11% of the total area, and drought frequency shows a progressive rising trend from southeast to west. It has a similar distribution to that of the winter, with the highest value concentrated in the western region. The central section of Qinghai Province has a high drought frequency at all scales, according to the temporal and spatial distribution of drought frequency at different scales, and appropriate mitigation measures should be performed.
Figure 6

Drought tolerance allocation. (a) Annual, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, (d) Autumn, and (e) Winter.

Figure 6

Drought tolerance allocation. (a) Annual, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, (d) Autumn, and (e) Winter.

Close modal

Analysis of Morlet continuous complex wavelet transform

Figure 7 shows the contour map and variance map of the real component of the SPEI exponential wavelet. Figure 7 indicates that the yearly SPEI oscillates between 37 and 5 years, with two wet and dry alternations on the 37-year long-term scale. It is currently in a wet period. The research area will be dominated by dryness in the short term and wetness in the long term due to a drier tendency in the short-term 5-year timeframe. Spring SPEI has a 45-year and 10-year oscillation cycle, with two wet and dry alternations on the 45-year long-term scale. It is in a wet period. It is currently in a dry phase on a 10-year scale. As a result, the research region will be mostly dry in the short term but moist in the long run. SPEI has a summer oscillation cycle of 20, 5–8 years, with four distinct dry and wet alternations on a long-term scale of 20 years. It is now experiencing a dry spell. In the short cycle, it is in a drier stage on a scale of 5–8 years, and the long-term summer will certainly be dominated by a drier drought trend. Autumn SPEI has 36-year, 10-year, and 5-year oscillation cycles, as well as three wet and dry alternations on a 36-year long-term scale. It is now experiencing a dry spell. It is currently in the wet stage for the next 5–10 years, thus the fall in the research area will be mostly rainy in the near term and dry in the long run. On the long-term scale of 45 years, the winter SPEI has 45 years, 22–29 years, and 5–10 years of periodic variation, with two wet and dry alternations. On a short-cycle scale of 5–10 years, it is currently at the end of the wet phase and entering a humid period, implying that the winter will be dominated by a humid trend in the long run.
Figure 7

SPEI exponential wavelet real part contour plot and variance plot. (a) Annual, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, (d) Autumn, and (e) Winter.

Figure 7

SPEI exponential wavelet real part contour plot and variance plot. (a) Annual, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, (d) Autumn, and (e) Winter.

Close modal

Warming and humidification trends have been observed in desert parts of Northwest China from 1961 to 2018 (Zhang et al. 2021), which agrees with our findings. However, the current humidification trend reflects merely a change in amount, which is insufficient to modify the region's underlying climate state. It is still in the arid and semi-arid climate zones, as well as the temperate arid zone.

Response analysis of SPEI to large-scale climate factors

The MEI.v2, PDO, AO, NAO, and SPEI index were re-analyzed using cross-wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence analysis to enhance the research of the response of drought in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin to large-scale climatic influences (Grinsted et al. 2004). Figure 8 depicts the cross-wavelet power spectrum and coherence spectrum of SPEI and big climate parameters in the research area. The arrows in the diagram represent the phase relationship between the variables. Positive correlations are indicated by arrows to the right, whereas negative correlations are indicated by arrows to the left. The up and down arrows represent a quarter-period lead or lag between the two indices. A nonlinear correlation can also be seen in the up/down arrow. The bold black outlines imply a 95% confidence level of passing the red noise test. The wavelet energy is represented by the colored stripes on the right, and the black solid line represents the influence cone, suggesting that the region is substantially impacted by the data edge effect during the continuous wavelet transform process. In most years, as shown in Figure 8(a), the SPEI and AO index demonstrated a substantial association at the 95% confidence level. It displayed oscillation cycle signals of 28.8–61.5, 67.1–122.5, 28–49, and 24.3–34.8 months in the years 1961–1972, 1972–1987, 1985–1994, and 2007–2012, respectively. The phase difference demonstrates that during the resonance period, both the SPEI and the AO index change in a positive phase, and the AO index steadily advances the SPEI by 1/4 period as the year changes. Figure 8(b) reveals that the high-energy duration of the SPEI and AO index was 37–76.8 months from 1978 to 1986, and the correlation coefficients on a scale of 128 months were both greater than 0.65. In the 28.8–61.5 month period, there is a clear positive association, which is consistent with Figure 8(a). The findings showed that AO helped to alleviate drought conditions in the research area.
Figure 8

Cross-wavelet power spectrum and coherence spectrum of SPEI and large-scale climate factors: (a,b) AO, (c,d) NAO, (e,f) PDO, (g,h) MEI.v2. Please refer to the online version of this paper to see this figure in colour: http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.535.

Figure 8

Cross-wavelet power spectrum and coherence spectrum of SPEI and large-scale climate factors: (a,b) AO, (c,d) NAO, (e,f) PDO, (g,h) MEI.v2. Please refer to the online version of this paper to see this figure in colour: http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.535.

Close modal

Figure 8(c) shows that the performance of the SPEI and NAO indexes in the power spectrum is nearly identical to that of the AO index. The NAO index exhibits a significant positive association with the SPEI, implying that it has a comparable impact on drought in the research area as the AO index. The SPEI and the PDO index, shown in Figure 8(e), exhibit two distinct and substantial resonance periods, 1967–1973 and 1989–1995, with vibration period signals of 14–23.5 and 38.3–51.5 months, respectively. The phase difference shows that the SPEI and the PDO index both have positive phase shifts during the substantial resonance period, but a negative correlation during the non-significant resonance period from 2007 to 2018. The high-energy parts of the power spectrum and the coherence spectrum are nearly identical, implying that the PDO index has an important effect on SPEI in these periods. However, the correlation changed in different periods, so the impact of PDO index on drought conditions was different in different periods. This may be due to the influence of human activities and the change of the underlying surface, so that it has undergone a stage change (Begueria et al. 2014). The relationship between these indicators during the various eras indicated above may undergo periodic modifications as a result of this changing pattern. In earlier years, PDO reduced drought conditions in the study area. However, in later years, PDO increased drought conditions. The SPEI and the MEI.v2 index are substantially correlated at the 95% confidence level, as shown in Figure 8, and there are two unique significant resonance periods. It showed oscillation cycle signals of 33.5–76.8 months from 1983 to 1999 and 22.4 to 48 months from 2004 to 2019. Its phase difference implies that during the resonance period, the SPEI and MEI.v2 index are in the negative phase. Figure 8 illustrates that high energy was exhibited as modest periodic fluctuations with durations of 0–6 months from 1995 to 2012. All of them revealed a strong negative connection, showing that MEI.v2 exacerbated drought conditions in the study area. This suggests that the ENSO phenomenon has exacerbated the region's drought. ENSO, PDO, AO, and NAO are all intimately linked to drought conditions in the research area and have a significant impact on the climate. ENSO had a greater link than the other three indices, showing that ENSO had a significant impact on the drought in the study area. ENSO is the most significant interannual oscillation signal among climatic components, according to certain studies, and it is the influence of air-sea coupling on climate (Webster et al. 1998; Ye & Wu 2018). This is in line with the finding that the ENSO event had a significant impact on the drought in the study area.

The Northwest of Yellow River Basin is an arid and semi-arid region. Low precipitation and rising temperatures increase moisture deficits and thus increase meteorological and hydrological droughts. Here, we use multiple aspects of drought to specify the severity of the drought, and the annual SPEI in the region shows a clear downward trend, with over 75% of the sites declining. The amount of drought in the study area did not significantly alter, but there was an increase in the frequency and severity of drought occurrences. Although there was little change in the study area's drought coverage, but drought events increased in frequency and severity. The total yearly precipitation trend in the studied area was insignificantly increasing (Guo et al. 2020). The occurrence of a local increase in precipitation in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin is insufficient to affect the current state of water scarcity in the studied area. According to some research, the positive vorticity advection anomaly over the region may be produced by the subtropical westerly jet's southern displacement in Asia, which causes the cyclone to migrate upward, resulting in higher precipitation (Peng & Zhou 2017). But water is still scarce in the research region. The Northwest of Yellow River Basin is located in the interaction zone of southeast monsoon and southwest monsoon. Precipitation and temperature changes are impacted by energy shifts in the Pacific Ocean. Due to the research area's large temperature increase brought on by global warming, the region's evapotranspiration likewise exhibits an increasing tendency, which causes a significant drop in SPEI (Figure 2). However, evapotranspiration has not shown a significant upward trend in the past 60 years, which indicates that evapotranspiration is not only affected by temperature, but also related to all parameters of the P-M model. Therefore, a more accurate evapotranspiration calculation model can comprehensively consider the influence of meteorological factors.

From 1961 to 2020, drought conditions in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin became more severe, and worsened after the 2000s. In recent years, the rise rate of evapotranspiration was significantly accelerated (5.29 mm/10a). As a result, increased warming and reduced precipitation in most areas have increased the severity of droughts. Related studies (Zhu & Chang 2017) show that the climate in recent 55 years is warmer and the precipitation fluctuates significantly, so the decrease of precipitation and the rise of temperature are the main reasons for the worsening of drought. Abnormal atmospheric circulation makes warm and cold air masses weak and unable to accumulate, which is one of the main reasons for the drought in the study area. In addition to the causes of climate change, human activities have also influenced the development of drought by altering the underlying surface of the Northwest of Yellow River Basin. A series of ecological and environmental problems, such as the over-exploitation of water resources, the decrease of vegetation coverage, and the decrease of groundwater level, will reduce the ability to resist drought and accelerate the formation of drought (Miao et al. 2016). Some scholars have shown that irrigation index, water fraction, and groundwater availability are the most important parameters for assessing drought vulnerability (Sahana et al. 2021). In addition, the excess greenhouse gases generated by rapid economic and social development also contribute to the development of drought (Bista et al. 2017). Therefore, under the specific natural geographical and climatic conditions, coupled with the influence of human activities, the drought in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin is becoming more and more serious. The research area has experienced substantially higher temperatures due to global warming (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2021), as well as dramatic melting and shrinking of glaciers, which has increased soil moisture content and river runoff (Liu 2006). These occurrences could explain the research area's growing wetness patterns. Although the warming and humidification trend in local areas will help to mitigate the negative effects of drought to some extent, the local hydrological system and ecological environment must still be enhanced (Wang et al. 2019). However, changing the local basic climatic state is far from sufficient. The climate in the research area is still arid and semi-arid.

The characteristics of drought trend based on M-K trend test show that the drought has an aggravating trend during 1961–2020, which is consistent with the findings of some scholars (Liu et al. 2020; Wang et al. 2020). The SPEI in spring showed the most significant downward trend (−0.05/10a). Previous studies have found that droughts were more frequent in spring and summer than in autumn and winter (Qin et al. 2016). This is consistent with the results of this research, which found that the frequency of droughts was higher in spring and summer (38.04% and 38.48%) than in autumn and winter (37.72% and 36.47%). The distribution of precipitation in different seasons is unbalanced, with less rainfall in spring and great interannual variation, accompanied by rising temperature and decreasing rainfall, so the drought in spring and summer is the most severe (Qin et al. 2016). In addition, the frequency of drought is higher in the western part of the study area, so the western part of the study area (such as Qinghai Province) is more prone to drought, indicating that the drought resistance measures in Qinghai Province are relatively weak.

Furthermore, large-scale climatic conditions play an important role in the research area's drought fluctuation trend (Huang et al. 2016b). By affecting the westerlies, the NAO and AO have a substantial impact on temperature and precipitation (Sung et al. 2006), changing the aridity of the study area. In this study, it was found that the NAO, AO, and SPEI index all changed in positive phase during the resonance period, and the correlation coefficient reached more than 0.65. This showed that AO and PDO reduced drought conditions in the study area. Changes in wind speed and air temperature are linked to ENSO and PDO is directly tied to snowmelt timing, which has an impact on water vapor transfer and glacier melting (Casey & Adamec 2002). In our research, SPEI and MEI.v2 index changed in negative phase during the resonance period, while SPEI and PDO index changed in positive phase during the significant resonance period, so ENSO and PDO had opposite effects on the generation of drought. It is worth noting that the PDO index and SPEI showed a negative correlation during the non-significant resonance period from 2007 to 2018. Therefore, the regulation of PDO index on the occurrence of drought is not invariable and will change in different periods. In addition, the significant resonance periods (1983–1999 and 2004–2019) of SPEI and MEI.v2 index are significantly longer than those of the other three indexes, so ENSO time has the most significant influence on drought in this region. On a worldwide scale, ENSO is a significant indication of interannual and interdecadal climate change (Webster et al. 1998; Ye & Wu 2018), and research has demonstrated that it interacts with other atmospheric oscillations (PDO, AO, NAO, MJO) (Tang & Yu 2008; Santoso et al. 2012; Wang et al. 2017). As a result, ENSO is recognized as a significant influencing factor in the region's extreme weather (drought, flood), which is consistent with the research findings indicating ENSO has the greatest impact on drought in this study area.

This research uses precipitation and meteorological data to determine the SPEI in the research area. It analyzes the link between SPEI and large-scale climate variables, as well as interannual fluctuations in precipitation, air temperature, and SPEI. However, the drought factors described in this study are limited. Furthermore, the physical mechanisms of drought are not considered, such as topography, vegetation, and soil. According to studies, human activities will increase the occurrence of heat and drought, and their influence will grow in the future (Samaniego et al. 2018). As a result, greater research into the interplay of physical mechanisms and drought at different geographic scales is required in order to develop targeted drought resistance approaches. Possible measures include strengthen regional farmland water conservation infrastructure, promoting a variety of farmland water-saving technology, and regularly varying the agricultural planting structure.

The trend changes in the time series of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and SPEI in the research area from 1961 to 2020 are discussed in this work. Drought area coverage and drought frequency were used to examine the characteristics of interdecadal, interannual, and seasonal droughts in the research area. Cross-wavelet analysis is also used to investigate the possible link between large-scale climate causes and dryness in this region. When paired with the research on the drought features of the Northwest of Yellow River Basin in this paper, different measures for different locations will help to raise the total study area's drought resistance level. The following are the primary conclusions:

  • 1.

    The annual-scale precipitation and evapotranspiration interannual fluctuation trends in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin were not substantial, and the seasonal and annual SPEI indicate different dry and wet phases. The drought situation quickly altered in 1968, and by 1974, it had reached a significant level of 0.05. Spring, summer, autumn, and winter SPEI values all showed a clear decrease trend, with the change becoming more apparent about 2000.

  • 2.

    The majority of the research region indicated a drying tendency, with the upper and middle parts of the watershed becoming drier and the downstream areas more humid. The places with an aridification tendency are predominantly found in the center and northern sections of the region, in terms of geographical disparities. In comparison to the other three seasons, the autumn drought trend is more noticeable, followed by summer and winter, while spring has the least noticeable drought trend.

  • 3.

    Drought coverage in the Northwest of Yellow River Basin revealed no notable rising trend, and annual and quarterly drought coverage in the study area did not change significantly. The dry area in winter exhibited an insignificant increase trend, while the spring, summer, and autumn showed an insignificant downward trend. Drought frequency displayed an erratic and fluctuating fluctuation pattern, with a high value localized primarily in the western region.

  • 4.

    In the studied area, the major cycle of yearly drought variation is 37 and 5 years. The primary spring cycle lasts 45 years or 10 years. Summer's main cycles are 20 and 5 years in length. The main autumn cycles are 36, 10, and 5 years. Winter cycles last 45, 22, and 5 years, respectively. Furthermore, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AO are all closely linked to the incidence and change of drought in the research area, with ENSO having a larger association than the other three indexes and hence having a greater impact on the drought.

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant numbers 52169010 and 51869023), the Training Project for the Top Young Talents in Ningxia (Grant number 030103030008), the Natural Science Foundation of Ningxia (Grant number 2021AAC03043), and Ningxia Key Research and Development Program (Grant number 2019BEB04029).

Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by YF and XS. The first draft of the manuscript was written by YF. WL and XW performed supervision, and reviewed paper. QZ helped in producing figures and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Data cannot be made publicly available; readers should contact the corresponding author for details.

The authors declare there is no conflict.

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