Climate change-induced glacier recession has sparked a dynamic transformation of glaciers in high-mountain areas worldwide, resulting in genesis, expansion, and dissipation of glacial lakes that pose a potential threat to downstream communities, underscoring the need for regular monitoring. This study incorporates the automated glacier extraction index to improve debris-free glacier mapping accuracy by reducing water and shadow area categorization errors using multi-temporal Landsat-5 Thermal Mapper, Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager, and digital elevation model (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) to obtain precise glacier extent. Waterbodies were delineated using thresholding techniques applied to water indices: normalized difference water index, modified normalized difference water index, normalized difference turbidity index, and slope information. The study attempted to map and analyze the temporal variations of glaciers and glacier lakes in the glaciated sub-basins of Arunachal Pradesh: Dibang Basin, Mago Basin, and Subansiri Basin. Glaciers receded at a shrinkage rate of 1.08% per year (1988–2017) in Mago Basin, 1.01% per year (2013–2022) in Subansiri Basin, and 1.42% per year (1995–2021) in Dibang Basin. Glacier lakes showed an increasing trend in number and area due to glacier melt, expanding at rates of 3.31% in the Mago Basin, 0.48% in the Subansiri Basin, and 0.68% in the Dibang Basin per year. Findings suggest that global climate change is likely the primary factor driving glacier changes in these basins.

  • Studied temporal variations of glacier surface area and glacier lakes associated with selected glaciated basins of Eastern Himalaya, namely Mago Basin (1988–2017), Subansiri Basin (2013–2022), and Dibang Basin (1995–2021).

  • The study observed and discussed the glacier dynamics of unexplored basins in Eastern Himalayan, which exhibit distinct characteristics compared to the extensively studied Western Himalayan Basins.

The cryosphere constitutes an integral aspect of the global climate system, exerting a significant impact on global change due to its interlinked influences (Kargel et al. 2014). The multifaceted and intricate phenomenon of climate change is best comprehended via substantial alterations occurring within the cryosphere (Kaushik et al. 2019). Glacier research is crucial for the systematic observation of the hydrological cycle and the evaluation of climate change impacts (Kaushik et al. 2019; Patel et al. 2019). Ice shelves and glacier fronts serve as crucial markers of glaciological processes, responsive to sensitivity and playing a critical role in the dynamics and overall mass equilibrium of ice sheets (Baumhoer et al. 2019). Glaciers retain essential information about the climate, historical climatic, and atmospheric disruptions. In the absence of direct communication, glaciers have been used as a proxy for measurements (Zhang et al. 2021). Changes in glaciers have a direct influence on the dimensions and occurrence frequency of lakes found in glaciated and high-altitude regions globally. The shifting dynamics of glacial and high-altitude lakes are at potential risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), posing a significant threat to downstream communities (Worni et al. 2013; Peng et al. 2014). To effectively address this risk, it is recommended to prioritize the evaluation of lakes with significant flood volumes and the highest risk of self-destructive and dynamic failures (Rounce et al. 2017). By concentrating future efforts on these lakes, the focus can be placed on mitigating the most critical hazards. Because of their sensitivity to minute climate shifts, glaciers are acknowledged as crucial markers of climate change (Zhang et al. 2019).

Conventional ground-based methods are impractical for monitoring glaciers across extensive areas due to their remote and inaccessible locations in high-mountain terrain. Remote sensing technology is highly efficient due to its capability to offer detailed spatial and temporal data on various physical characteristics of the Earth's surface that can be effectively leveraged to map the extent of water bodies regionally or even globally and to closely track their dynamics at regular and frequent intervals (Huang et al. 2018) compared to traditional in situ measurement. In recent years, the extraction of more accurate glacier boundaries from satellite data has become a prevalent practice, particularly when assessing changes in glaciers (Paul et al. 2013). Leveraging satellite data to demarcate glacier limits is manifold. Many studies have been reported using these techniques for delineating clean ice glaciers (Bhambri et al. 2011; Mir et al. 2017; Alam & Bhardwaj 2020). Automated and semi-automatic methods exploit the distinctive spectral reflectance characteristics of ice and snow in the shortwave infrared (SWIR) and visible and near-infrared (VNIR) ranges to differentiate debris-free glacier margins from darker features like rock, soil, or vegetation (Zhang et al. 2019). The single band ratio approach incorporates the Red/SWIR ratio and the near-infrared (NIR)/SWIR ratio method, which detects glaciers efficiently in thin clouds and shadow zones; however, this method also tends to identify various water features, along with glaciers. On the other hand, the NIR/SWIR ratio precisely exempts most water features, is prone to overlooking locations with shadowing glaciers, and may misidentify shadowed vegetation as glaciers (Paul et al. 2013). To overcome these flaws in glacier mapping and to enhance the accuracy of glacier mapping by effectively differentiating glaciers located in shadowed areas and neighboring proglacial lakes, a new index called the automatic glacier extraction index (AGEI) has been devised by Zhang et al. (2019). This index incorporates a weighted average of the red and NIR bands, thereby improving the precision of delineating debris-free glaciers (Zhang et al. 2019). Several studies have proven that using various water indices from remotely sensed images to distinguish water bodies is effective in delineating surface water from its surroundings (Haibo et al. 2011; Rokni et al. 2014; Naik & Anuradha 2018). Multi-band techniques amalgamate different reflective bands to efficiently extract surface water. The normalized difference water index (NDWI) was specifically devised to extract water features from Landsat data, but NDWI cannot separate shallow water features from built-up land. A modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) detects and enhances the water features for water regions within predominated built-up areas, vegetation, or soil features (Rokni et al. 2014; Mishra & Prasad 2015). The threshold method relies on differentiating water from other objects such as vegetation and bare soil based on the lower reflected radiance of water in the SWIR band. This method is crucial to determine whether pixels belong to a water class or not (Mishra & Prasad 2015; Huang et al. 2018). Pure water exhibits a unique radiometric response. Small ponds and other muddy and clogged waterbodies with suspended sediments behave like bare soils as a result of the rise in turbidity and the radiometric reactions (Lacaux et al. 2007; Gardelle et al. 2010; Bid & Siddique 2019). Images are then sorted using normalized difference turbidity index (NDTI) thresholds.

Several studies show that glaciers in the Indian Himalayas are experiencing rapid decline at an alarming rate, contributing to an overall loss in the frozen component of the Himalayan cryosphere indicative of climate change consequences (Kulkarni et al. 2005, 2007; Gurung et al. 2011; Kaushik et al. 2019). Because of the rocky and inaccessible alpine environment, Himalayan glaciers are typically challenging for field evaluation (Mir et al. 2017), making frequent monitoring and data gathering using field methods challenging (Mir et al. 2014). Arunachal Pradesh in the Eastern Himalayas is the region with the least glacier coverage in the Himalayas but it has an immense impact on the runoff regime and hydrology of the drainage region, which manifests the necessity of obtaining a data hub exclusively for watershed management of the region. Studies have used satellite images to create glacier and glacier lake inventories for various sections of the Himalayan region (Worni et al. 2013; Bhambri et al. 2018); however, Arunachal Pradesh, Eastern Himalayas, lacks an updated glacier, glacial lake inventory, and classification type (Mal et al. 2020). This study aims to employ a remote sensing method to gather glacier extent and glacier lake inventory in Arunachal Pradesh and analyze changes over a decade to fill the study gap.

Study area

The Arunachal Himalayas constitute the eastern boundary of the Eastern Himalayas, with the Namcha Barwa massif in the far east of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh recognized as the easternmost point of the Himalayas. This range is modest by Himalayan standards for the majority of its length and the region comprises a sequence of elevated ridges and lower valleys, with the altitude ranging from 800 to 7,000 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.). The Himalayan range extends into the state of Arunachal Pradesh, entering from Bhutan and spanning through the Tawang and West Kameng districts. The selected glaciated basins in the study area are Mago River Basin, Subansiri River Basin, and Dibang River Basin toward the east, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1

Selected glaciated River Basins.

Figure 1

Selected glaciated River Basins.

Close modal

The Mago River Basin, located in the Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh, is marked by narrow undulating features extending from 92° 0′ 28.5″ E to 92° 0′ 28.5″ E longitude and 27° 53′ 17.5″ N to 27° 31′ 16.5″ N latitude at 2,438 to 6,443 m.a.s.l., with a drainage basin area of 841 km2 originating from the Gorichen glacier in India. The Subansiri River Basin is the largest tributary of Brahmaputra River, extending between the latitude of 28° 55′ 25.1868″ N to 27° 25′ 58.6416″ N and longitude of 91° 33′ 31.9968″ E to 94° 48′ 46.5372″ E, with a drainage basin area of 32,640 km2 between an elevation range extending from 99 to 6,692 m.a.s.l. originating near Mount Porom in Tibet, Himalayas. The Dibang River Basin, extending between a latitude of 29° 22′ 26.1876″ N to 28° 5′ 45.078″ N and a longitude of 95° 14′ 25.044″ E to 96° 38′ 49.0236″ E, courses along the Mishmi hill toward the south, with a drainage basin of 13,933 km2 and elevation from 178 to 5,421 m.a.s.l.

Data acquisition

For automated/semi-automated glacier mapping approaches, Landsat data offer enhanced accuracy, efficiency, and repeatability (Zhang et al. 2019). Because of the huge swath width (185 km), moderate spatial resolution (30 m), and extensive temporal record, Landsat data are commonly recognized as extremely valuable for glacier mapping within the wide array of remote sensing datasets available (Bolch et al. 2010). The most recent Landsat data (5 Thermal Mapper (TM) and 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI)) for least snow and cloud coverage were acquired from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) website (https://glovis.usgs.gov/) and processed for atmospheric correction and scanline correction resulting from any scanline error in the image. The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) is a comprehensive collection of glacier outlines on a global scale. This dataset supplies a singular delineation for each glacier and is created in collaboration with the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) initiative. The Landsat images obtained for the study area were mosaiced and clipped within the areal extension for each River Basin. Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6.0 released on July 28, 2017 (RGI v 6.0) for Southeast Asia was obtained from the GLIMS website (https://www.glims.org/RGI/rgi60_dl.html). Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) was acquired from the NASA website (http://search.earthdata.nasa.gov/) for the study area. The data are detailed in Table 1.

Table 1

Details of data acquired

DataSourceYearWorldwide Reference System path/rowResolutionDescription
Landsat-8 OLI US Geological Survey 2013 136/40 30 Optical 
2017 137/41 30 Optical 
2021 134/40 30 Optical 
2022 136/40 30 Optical 
Landsat-5 TM US Geological Survey 1988 137/41 30 Optical 
1995 134/40 30 Optical 
DEM (SRTM) NASA   30 Optical 
RGI v 6.0 GLIMS 2017   Map 
DataSourceYearWorldwide Reference System path/rowResolutionDescription
Landsat-8 OLI US Geological Survey 2013 136/40 30 Optical 
2017 137/41 30 Optical 
2021 134/40 30 Optical 
2022 136/40 30 Optical 
Landsat-5 TM US Geological Survey 1988 137/41 30 Optical 
1995 134/40 30 Optical 
DEM (SRTM) NASA   30 Optical 
RGI v 6.0 GLIMS 2017   Map 

Glacier area extraction

To extract the glacier area accurately in the study area, different remote sensing methods were applied and compared with each other through high-resolution Google Earth images and RGI v6.0 within the Mago River Basin.

Several automated glacier delineation methods based on remote sensing, namely normalized difference snow index (NDSI), single band ratio (BR) (NIR/SWIR, Red/SWIR), and AGEI, were applied to extract glaciers within the Mago Basin for the comparison and selection of the best-suited method. The test for best fit was conducted, and the optimal threshold value was carefully determined for each method by employing a range of threshold values. Through a rigorous comparative analysis, the most accurate and precise glacier delineation method was selected and, subsequently, the superior method was employed to delineate the glaciers within the study area. Our findings and methodology hold significant implications for glacier analysis. The overall methodology is illustrated in Figure 2. The different remote sensing methods are detailed below.
Figure 2

Flow chart of AGEI method for mapping glaciers in the study area.

Figure 2

Flow chart of AGEI method for mapping glaciers in the study area.

Close modal

Normalized difference snow index

NDSI is the most widely used method for determining snow/glacier area.
(1)
where is the spectral reflectance values of the green band (Band 3) and is the spectral reflectance values of the SWIR band (Band 6). The pixel value that we obtained from the Landsat image is a raw digital number (DN). These pixels are converted into reflectance before applying them to NDSI. The conversion of DN into reflectance is as follows:
(2)
where is the reflectance value of the nth band, is the reflectance-multi-band of the nth band, is the reflectance-add-band of the nth band, is the digital number of the nth band, and is the sun elevation. These data were obtained from the MLT file from the Landsat data. In the case of NDSI, the threshold value spanned from 0.4 to 0.9.

Single BR

There are two single BR methods.
(3)
(4)
where DNRed is the raw digital number values of the red band, DNNIR is the raw digital number values of the NIR band, and DNSWIR is the raw digital number values of the SWIR band. For the single band ratio method, the threshold value ranged from 2 ± 0.5.

Automatic glacier extraction index

AGEI was proposed by Zhang et al. (2019) to mitigate errors associated with the classification of water and shadowed regions and to enhance the overall precision of mapping according to the following equation:
(5)
where α ∈ [0,1] is a weighted coefficient, DNRED, DNNIR, and DNSWIR are the unprocessed digital number values of the red band, NIR band, and SWIR band, respectively. The weighted coefficients were tested 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9. For the single band ratio method, the threshold value ranged from 2 ± 0.5.

Comparison and selection of most suitable glacier delineation methods

The Landsat 8 OLI images, post-processing, featured a range of threshold values for various methods. These images were transformed into polygons, and glacier maps for the year 2017 were created. The generated glacier maps were imported into Google Earth with the closest available Landsat image acquisition date to ensure accuracy. A meticulous assessment was conducted to determine optimal threshold values for all the methods. The resulting glacier maps were collectively imported into Google Earth for a comprehensive comparative analysis to verify the glacier extent, as well as identifying and distinguishing water features and shadowed glacier areas. This comparison enabled us to identify the most effective remote sensing method.

Following the method selection, the glaciers for Mago Basin, Subansiri Basin, and Dibang Basin were generated using the chosen approach and manually delineated down to their snouts. The delineated glaciers underwent a validation process by cross-referencing them with the Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6.0 (RGI v6.0) for accuracy and consistency.

Glacier lake extraction

Water bodies extracted as ‘high-altitude lakes’ serve as a broad descriptor encompassing regions consisting of swamps, marshes, meadows, fens, peatlands, or bodies of water situated at elevations above 3,000 m.a.s.l. They are characterized by permanent or temporary water bodies, either static or flowing, with varying degrees of salinity, including fresh, brackish, or saline conditions (Panigrahy et al. 2012) and are differentiated into glacier-fed lakes and glacial lakes. Landsat images were used for NDWI, MNDWI, and NDTI for waterbody delineation. Selected threshold values were applied to classify the images belonging to a water body. During water body extraction, a subset of small areas or individual pixels, called noise, are also extracted as a result of the existence of minor water features created by factors such as heavy precipitation or other causes (Mishra & Prasad 2015) which needs to be filtered. In this study, the identification of glacial lakes was performed using the glacier layer extracted using AGEI. The change detection technique was applied to accomplish the spatial and temporal tracking of waterbody changes and monitoring of waterbody dynamics over time and space. Generally, there are two approaches: the first approach involves acquiring multiple images at various time points and subsequently comparing the classification outcomes. On the other hand, the second approach directly compares images obtained at different periods and classifies the resulting comparisons into distinct change statuses. As the first approach is tedious and accumulates many errors, the second approach is more favorable (Huang et al. 2018). The overall methodology adopted for waterbody extraction and change analysis in this study is shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3

Methodology framework of waterbody layer delineation.

Figure 3

Methodology framework of waterbody layer delineation.

Close modal

Water body extraction indices

NDWI uses the green band and NIR band to distinguish water features from dry land and also measures the interaction of sunlight with liquid molecules present within the foliage of vegetation canopies. NDWI exhibits sensitivity to built-up land, leading to an overestimation of water bodies. In the green band, water reflects strongly, while in the NIR band, it has high absorption (Tuan et al. 2019). MNDWI, developed by Xu (2006), uses the SWIR band and green band. As NDWI cannot absorb water features properly where built-up areas and vegetation are associated, MNDWI can extract better water features as it can reduce and minimize noises. The SWIR band demonstrates greater water feature absorption compared to the NIR band. NDTI uses the green band and red band to identify water turbidity. The radiometric response of pure water follows distinct patterns, with weak reflectance in the green band (less than 10%), significantly reduced reflectance in the red band, and almost no reflectance in the NIR band. However, the presence of turbidity changes these radiometric responses, causing open-water features like ponds to exhibit similarities to exposed soil (Guyot 1989). Due to the substantially higher values of radiometric responses in the red band compared to the green band, the relationship between the green and red wavelengths becomes reversed (Verbyla 1995). The threshold value determines the classification of a pixel as belonging to a water body or not. The higher range of positive values observed in water indices: NDWI and MNDWI indicate water pixel class and negative values indicate non-water land cover types. The negative NDTI indicates clear water, whereas the positive NDTI indicates highly turbid water. The resultant NDWI, MNDWI map of Mago Basin for 1985 and 2017, Subansiri Basin for 2013 and 2022, and Dibang Basin for 1995 and 2021 show that the glacier present in the study areas has positive NDWI values as well, but this was filtered and eliminated using other water indices layers. Table 2 shows the various threshold values of water indices values obtained for different River Basins. The slope map was reclassified into two classes that are below 20% and above 20%. Waterbody is expected to be present in slope areas below 20%. The values of NDWI, MNDWI, and NDTI vary from −1 to +1 and are calculated as:
(6)
(7)
(8)
Table 2

Threshold values for waterbody extraction

Water indicesMago Basin
Subansiri Basin
Dibang Basin
1988
2017
2013
2022
1995
2021
MinMaxMinMaxMinMaxMinMaxMinMaxMinMax
NDWI 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.9 −0.99 0.88 −0.99 0.88 −2.48 0.28 −0.99 0.76 
MNDWI 0.4 0.62 0.65 0.98 −0.99 0.73 −0.99 0.73 −0.58 0.79 −0.99 
NDTI −0.99 −0.43 −0.2 −0.05 −0.03 −1 −0.9 −0.32 0.39 −0.10 0.99 
Slope% 20 20 20 20 20 20 
Water indicesMago Basin
Subansiri Basin
Dibang Basin
1988
2017
2013
2022
1995
2021
MinMaxMinMaxMinMaxMinMaxMinMaxMinMax
NDWI 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.9 −0.99 0.88 −0.99 0.88 −2.48 0.28 −0.99 0.76 
MNDWI 0.4 0.62 0.65 0.98 −0.99 0.73 −0.99 0.73 −0.58 0.79 −0.99 
NDTI −0.99 −0.43 −0.2 −0.05 −0.03 −1 −0.9 −0.32 0.39 −0.10 0.99 
Slope% 20 20 20 20 20 20 

Generation of waterbody map

Generation of water bodies was carried out using NDWI, MNDWI, and NDTI indices along with the slope of the region. The indices used in the present study have the potential to demarcate the waterbodies individually. However, these individual indices could not efficiently bifurcate waterbodies from hill shadows, built-up areas, and sometimes glaciers. The present study utilizes the thresholding method to classify water bodies in the region. Thresholding or reclassification is a method to create a binary image in terms of foreground and background. To find out the threshold value, multiple sample points were created and pixel values for waterbodies were extracted. The extracted pixel value for water was then used for thresholding the indices to extract the area that has a high probability of water. In this study, the water spread area is considered as foreground, and non-water pixels are considered as background values. The resulting individual reclassified layers were then intersected with each other to estimate the final waterbodies. However, the present study is only concentrated on high-altitude lakes; therefore, waterbodies above 3,000 m.a.s.l. were considered. The Eastern Himalayan region has high topographical variations, and these variations create noises in the resulting waterbody layer due to hill shadows. To avoid these hill shadows, a percent slope was incorporated by considering that the waterbodies were present in relatively flatter areas. The size of the mapping of waterbodies is limited by the spatial resolution of the dataset (30 m in this case). The assumption was made that at least three continuous pixels both in the x and y directions are required to identify any object efficiently in an optical dataset. Therefore, in the present study, a 3 × 3 window size was considered while mapping the waterbodies. The entire process was performed in the ERDAS Imagine model builder tool.

Accuracy assessment

Accuracy assessment is the probability of a reference pixel being correctly classified. Assessing the accuracy is essential to give reliable information. In this study, the classified pixels were further examined for accuracy assessment using Google Earth Pro as a reference for validation. Missing/unclassified lakes were marked, and the lake area below 0.008 km2 was excluded. The ground data were acquired from imagery with a high level of detail from Google Earth, and a confusion matrix was created with the help of these point datasets. The formula used to calculate the accuracy assessment in this study is as follows:
(9)
(10)
(11)

Here, omission and commission error are the classification errors used for calculating the producer's and user's accuracy, respectively. Omission errors evaluate the pixels that are left out to classify in that particular class, whereas commission errors evaluate the pixels that are incorrectly classified.

Selection of automated glacier delineation method

The assessment of the AGEI method involved experimenting with a range of weighted coefficients spanning from 0 to 1. Since these weighted coefficients were applied across the entire River Basin, pinpointing the optimal value proved to be a somewhat challenging task. Building upon the findings of Zhang et al. (2019), which demonstrated that a weighted coefficient of 0.5 yielded the highest accuracy across four test regions, the same approach was adopted. Therefore, a weighted coefficient of 0.5 was used in the AGEI method and its performance evaluated with various threshold values. Through a systematic evaluation of various remote sensing methods with the ground exposed ice (GEI), it was determined that the optimal threshold values were 0.8, 2, and 2 for NDSI, two single BRs, and AGEI, respectively. When comparing all the remote sensing methods using their respective best threshold values (as depicted in Figure 4), a notable observation emerged: NDSI tended to erroneously classify non-glacial features like water bodies and bare rock as glaciers, while the other methods did not exhibit this issue. This discrepancy arose because NDSI assigned similar signatures to glaciers, water features, and bare rock. Consequently, it was deduced that the single BRs and AGEI methods outperformed NDSI in accurately delineating glaciers. Moreover, when comparing the two single BRs and AGEI, it was evident that AGEI excelled in capturing glacier extents, especially in the case of shadowed glaciers.
Figure 4

(a) NDSI with threshold value of 0.8, (b) Red/SWIR with threshold value of 2, (c) NIR/SWIR with threshold value of 2, (d) AGEI with threshold value of 2, (e) comparison of all the methods with Google Earth Image: NDSI , Red/SWIR , NIR/SWIR , AGEI , basin boundary .

Figure 4

(a) NDSI with threshold value of 0.8, (b) Red/SWIR with threshold value of 2, (c) NIR/SWIR with threshold value of 2, (d) AGEI with threshold value of 2, (e) comparison of all the methods with Google Earth Image: NDSI , Red/SWIR , NIR/SWIR , AGEI , basin boundary .

Close modal
The result was validated by comparing the glacier extracted with the RGI v6.0 data as depicted in Figure 5, resulting in a conclusion that glacier delineation achieved through the AGEI method was in evident agreement with the RGI v6.0 map. Hence, after considering all the comparisons made among the various remote sensing methods examined, the AGEI method with a 0.5 weighted coefficient was selected as the most effective and accurate one for determining glacier extents within the area.
Figure 5

Comparison between AGEI extracted glacier and RGI v6.0 for Mago Basin (2017), Dibang Basin (2021), and Subansiri Basin (2022).

Figure 5

Comparison between AGEI extracted glacier and RGI v6.0 for Mago Basin (2017), Dibang Basin (2021), and Subansiri Basin (2022).

Close modal

Glaciers and their temporal analysis

Due to the restricted availability of suitable cloud- and snow-free sceneries, mapping glacier lakes using satellite imagery is a difficult undertaking in the Himalayas. It is critical to have reliable data on glacier surface area and to monitor changes regularly (Worni et al. 2013; Nie et al. 2017). The years for temporal change analysis were selected differently for the three basins based on image availability: 1988 and 2017 for Mago Basin; 2013 and 2022 for Subansiri Basin; and 1995 and 2021 for Dibang Basin. The Landsat data available were acceptable based on governing factors, i.e., cloud cover and snow cover.

This study used Landsat images for all three methods and selected AGEI method after comparison with the NDSI and single band ratio methods for determining the glacier extent. The AGEI weighted coefficient of 0.5 was the best fit to map glaciers. The AGEI extracted glacier map of the Mago, Dibang, and Subansiri River Basins for 2017, 2021, and 2022, respectively, after comparison with RGI v6.0 for validation, demonstrated good threshold similarity, as shown in Figure 5. The glacier coverage maps of the selected River Basins of Arunachal Pradesh extracted using AGEI for the latest observation period data available are shown in Figure 6.
Figure 6

Glacier coverage of selected River Basins of Arunachal Pradesh.

Figure 6

Glacier coverage of selected River Basins of Arunachal Pradesh.

Close modal
The study area witnessed overall glacier retreat during the observation period, as evident in Figures 79 for Mago Basin, Subansiri Basin, and Dibang Basin, respectively. In Mago Basin, the glacier area reduced from 79.97 km2 (55 glaciers) in 1988 to 57.65 km2 in 2017 (49 glaciers), resulting in an annual retreat rate of 0.74 km2 per year. This retreat also led to a decrease in the total number of six glaciers, diminishing by 22.32 km2 over the study period. The Mago Basin further observed glacier thinning at a rate of 1.08% per year. In the Subansiri Basin, glacier recession occurred at a rate of 0.72 km2 per year from 2013 (52 glaciers, 75.06 km2) to 2022 (52 glaciers, 67.85 km2). Notably, the number of glaciers remained constant during the study period, resulting in a glacier retreat rate of 1.01% per year. The Dibang Basin experienced glacier retreat and thinning from 1995 (76 glaciers, 88.88 km2) to 2021 (62 glaciers, 60.3 km2), occurring at an annual rate of 1.06 km2. This led to a total glacier area reduction of 28.58 km2 (14 glaciers) in the Dibang Basin. The quantitative analysis of the glacier study unveiled a consistent trend of retreat, albeit at varying rates. The Dibang Basin exhibited the most substantial glacier retreat, with an annual rate of 1.42%. Temporal variations in glacier retreat are summarized in Table 3 and depicted in Figure 10.
Table 3

Glacier invention and glacier retreat analysis

River BasinGlaciers invented
Glacier area changes
YearNo. of glaciersTotal glacier area (km2)Total difference (km2)Percentage difference (%) Retreating rate (km2/year)Retreating rate (% per year)
Mago Basin 1988 55 79.97 22.32 32.44 0.74 1.08 
2017 49 57.65     
Subansiri Basin 2013 52 75.06 7.21 10.09 0.72 1.01 
2022 52 67.85     
Dibang Basin 1995 76 88.88 28.58 38.32 1.06 1.42 
2021 62 60.3     
River BasinGlaciers invented
Glacier area changes
YearNo. of glaciersTotal glacier area (km2)Total difference (km2)Percentage difference (%) Retreating rate (km2/year)Retreating rate (% per year)
Mago Basin 1988 55 79.97 22.32 32.44 0.74 1.08 
2017 49 57.65     
Subansiri Basin 2013 52 75.06 7.21 10.09 0.72 1.01 
2022 52 67.85     
Dibang Basin 1995 76 88.88 28.58 38.32 1.06 1.42 
2021 62 60.3     
Figure 7

Mago Basin glaciers in 1988 and 2017.

Figure 7

Mago Basin glaciers in 1988 and 2017.

Close modal
Figure 8

Subansiri Basin glaciers in 2013 and 2022.

Figure 8

Subansiri Basin glaciers in 2013 and 2022.

Close modal
Figure 9

Dibang Basin glaciers in 1995 and 2021.

Figure 9

Dibang Basin glaciers in 1995 and 2021.

Close modal
Figure 10

Temporal variation in glacier area distribution.

Figure 10

Temporal variation in glacier area distribution.

Close modal
The glaciers were categorized into five categories based on their size: ‘very small’ (less than 0.5 km2), ‘small’ (0.5–1 km2), ‘medium’ (1–3 km2), ‘large’ (3–5 km2), and ‘very large’ (exceeding 5 km2). Further insights into the distribution of glacier sizes are presented in Table 4 and Figure 11.
Table 4

Glacier size distribution

Glacier size (km2)Mago Basin
Subansiri Basin
Dibang Basin
No.
Area (km2)
No.
Area (km2)
No.
Area (km2)
198820171988201720132022201320221995202119952021
<0.5 19 24 6.64 6.41 18 21 5.17 5.49 32 25 8.787 6.40 
0.5–1 14 10.1 5.72 16 15 10.89 9.82 16 20 11.78 13.95 
1–3 14 11 25.85 20.23 12 11 21.32 19.67 19 12 29.38 20.47 
3–5 20.27 25.3 9.68 6.28 28.22 19.48 
>5 17.13 28.00 26.60 10.70 0.00 
Total 55 49 79.97 57.66 52 52 75.06 67.85 76 62 88.8827 60.31 
Glacier size (km2)Mago Basin
Subansiri Basin
Dibang Basin
No.
Area (km2)
No.
Area (km2)
No.
Area (km2)
198820171988201720132022201320221995202119952021
<0.5 19 24 6.64 6.41 18 21 5.17 5.49 32 25 8.787 6.40 
0.5–1 14 10.1 5.72 16 15 10.89 9.82 16 20 11.78 13.95 
1–3 14 11 25.85 20.23 12 11 21.32 19.67 19 12 29.38 20.47 
3–5 20.27 25.3 9.68 6.28 28.22 19.48 
>5 17.13 28.00 26.60 10.70 0.00 
Total 55 49 79.97 57.66 52 52 75.06 67.85 76 62 88.8827 60.31 
Figure 11

Temporal variation in glacier size distribution.

Figure 11

Temporal variation in glacier size distribution.

Close modal

The temporal analysis reveals distinct patterns in the number of glaciers falling within the ‘very small’ category (<0.5 km2). Both the Mago Basin and the Subansiri Basin displayed an increase in the number of these small glaciers. In the Mago Basin, the total area of such glaciers rose from 6.64 km2 (19 glaciers) in 1988 to 6.41 km2 (24 glaciers). A similar trend was observed in the Subansiri Basin, where the area increased from 5.17 km2 (18 glaciers) in 2013 to 5.49 km2 (21 glaciers). This phenomenon is primarily attributed to the deglaciation process, resulting in the larger glaciers melting and transforming into smaller ones. Conversely, the Dibang Basin exhibited a decrease in the number of ‘very small’ glaciers between 1995, when 32 glaciers covered 8.787 km2, and 2021, when there was only 25 glaciers with a total area of 6.40 km2. This decline is attributed to the basin's lower elevation, which is more susceptible to deglaciation, causing the melting and eventual disappearance of these small-sized glaciers.

The ‘small’ glacier category (0.5–1 km2) exhibited varying trends in glacier retreat within the Mago Basin and the Subansiri Basin. In the Mago Basin, there was a notable reduction from a total of 10.1 km2 (14 glaciers) in 1988 to 5.72 km2 (8 glaciers) in 2017. Similarly, the Subansiri Basin experienced a retreat from 10.89 km2 (16 glaciers) in 2013 to 9.82 km2 (15 glaciers) in 2021. These changes are primarily attributed to the process of larger glaciers melting and transforming into smaller sizes, particularly those falling below 0.5 km2. Conversely, the Dibang Basin exhibited an upward trend, with the total area covered by ‘small’ glaciers increasing from 11.78 km2 (16 glaciers) in 1995 to 13.95 km2 (20 glaciers) in 2021. This trend is associated with the melting of larger glaciers into smaller ones, contributing to this expansion in the ‘small’ glacier category.

The medium-sized glaciers (1–3 km2) experienced a consistent retreat across all three basins. In the Mago Basin, the total coverage of such glaciers decreased from 25.85 km2 (14 glaciers) in 1988 to 20.23 km2 (11 glaciers) in 2017. Likewise, the Subansiri Basin saw a reduction from 21.32 km2 (12 glaciers) in 2013 to 19.67 km2 (11 glaciers) in 2022. The Dibang Basin displayed a similar trend, with the coverage of 1–3 km2 of glaciers falling from 29.38 km2 (19 glaciers) in 1995 to 20.47 km2 (12 glaciers) in 2021. This widespread retreat is indicative of the glacier reduction trend across the basins.

Glaciers of large size (3–5 km2) exhibited a retreating pattern in both the Dibang Basin and the Subansiri Basin. The Dibang Basin, with 28.22 km2 of glacier coverage (seven glaciers) in 1995, experienced an area decrease to 19.48 km2 (five glaciers) in 2021. Similarly, the Subansiri Basin, with 9.68 km2 of glacier coverage (three glaciers) in 2013, witnessed a reduction to 6.28 km2 (two glaciers) in 2022. This decline is attributed to the melting of glaciers exceeding 5 km2, leading to their transformation into smaller glaciers. The Mago Basin displayed an opposite trend, characterized by an increase in glacier size ranging from 3 to 5 km2. The basin's glacier coverage expanded from 20.27 km2 (five glaciers) in 1988 to 25.3 km2 (six glaciers) in 2017. This growth is primarily attributed to the conversion of larger glaciers into smaller ones within the basin.

Large-size glaciers >5 km2 diminished in Dibang Basin and Mago Basin such that the Dibang Basin had a coverage of 10.70 km2 (two glaciers) in 1995 and Mago with 17.13 km2 coverage (three glaciers) in 1988. Subansiri Basin experienced a retreat in the area coverage of large glaciers from 28 km2 (three glaciers) in 2013 to 26.60 km2 (three glaciers) in 2022.

Small glaciers (less than 0.5 km2) exhibited dominance and a clear upward trend. This trend was characterized by an increase in the number of small glaciers, while the number of medium, large, and very large glaciers experienced a relative decline in the context of our study within Arunachal Pradesh. This observation aligns with a previous study conducted by Borah et al. (2022), which also noted glacier thinning and a subsequent transformation of larger glaciers into smaller ones.

The study has revealed a significant insight: the majority of glaciers in the study area are concentrated within the elevation range of 4,500–5,500 m.a.s.l. This range encompasses both the Mago Basin, where glaciers span from 5,000 to 5,500 m.a.s.l., and the Subansiri Basin, with glaciers extending between 4,500 and 5,000 m.a.s.l. In contrast, the Dibang Basin, situated at a lower elevation range of 4,000–5,000 m.a.s.l., has experienced the most pronounced deglaciation. This is evident in the data, where the Dibang Basin saw a substantial reduction in glacier area coverage from 13.56 km2 (17 glaciers) in 1995 to 1.28 km2 (3 glaciers) in 2021. Consequently, it is notable that the Dibang Basin has the smallest glacier area coverage, as illustrated in Figure 12 and Table 5.
Table 5

Glacier elevation distribution

Glacier elevation (m)Dibang Basin
Mago Basin
Subansiri Basin
No.
Area
No.
Area
No.
Area
199520211995202119882017198820172013202220132022
4,000–4,500 17 13.56 1.28 – – – – – – – – 
4,500–5,000 59 59 75.31 59.0 – – – – 0.28 0.28 
5,000–5,500 – – – – 43 34 47.52 28.96 37 37 48.27 40.93 
5,500–6,000 – – – – 12 15 32.44 28.7 13 13 26.22 26.38 
6,000–6,500 – – – – – – – – 0.28 0.27 
>6,500             
Total 76 62 88.88 60.31 55 49 79.97 57.66 52 52 75.06 67.85 
Glacier elevation (m)Dibang Basin
Mago Basin
Subansiri Basin
No.
Area
No.
Area
No.
Area
199520211995202119882017198820172013202220132022
4,000–4,500 17 13.56 1.28 – – – – – – – – 
4,500–5,000 59 59 75.31 59.0 – – – – 0.28 0.28 
5,000–5,500 – – – – 43 34 47.52 28.96 37 37 48.27 40.93 
5,500–6,000 – – – – 12 15 32.44 28.7 13 13 26.22 26.38 
6,000–6,500 – – – – – – – – 0.28 0.27 
>6,500             
Total 76 62 88.88 60.31 55 49 79.97 57.66 52 52 75.06 67.85 
Figure 12

Temporal variation in glacier elevation distribution.

Figure 12

Temporal variation in glacier elevation distribution.

Close modal

Glacial lakes and their temporal analysis

Glacial lakes are produced by or fed by glacier meltwater (Cao et al. 2016). When a glacier retreats or melts, it leaves behind a plateau lake called a glacial lake, which serves as a water resource. Song & Sheng (2016) categorized high-altitude lakes into categories: glacier-fed lakes, non-glacier-fed lakes, and upstream lakes. In this study, we differentiated the extracted high-altitude lakes into glacier lakes which are fed by glaciers and non-glacier lakes which do not originate from any glacier source. The study observed that few noises were present in the output after extraction due to shadows and clouds, which were removed manually.

The accuracy assessment of waterbodies of the Dibang Basin obtained an overall accuracy of 79.70 and 72.60% in 1995 and 2021, respectively, as shown in Table 6. The overall accuracy of the Mago Basin in 1988 and 2017 was found to be 84.3 and 84%, respectively. The overall accuracy of the Subansiri Basin in 2013 and 2022 was found to be 53.30 and 54.7%, respectively. In comparison to the Dibang Basin and Mago Basin, the overall accuracy of the Subansiri Basin yielded a very low percentage initially due to obscuration from shadows in the region. The Subansiri Basin covers a vast area, exhibiting a broad range of topographical variations. This extensive area and the associated shadow effects make it challenging to attain a high level of accuracy using the proposed methodology at a basin-wide scale. However, the accuracy of the mapping was improved by manual delineation of waterbodies before analyzing the temporal changes. Each waterbody was carefully checked, and missing waterbodies were mapped with the help of a False Colour Composite combination of raw satellite data and high-resolution Google imageries. High-altitude lakes were created as shown in Table 7, Figure 13 (Mago Basin), Figure 14 (Subansiri Basin), and Figure 15 (Dibang Basin), indicating an increasing trend in the number and area coverage of high-altitude lakes.
Table 6

Accuracy assessment

BasinYearUser's accuracy (%)Producer's accuracy (%)Overall accuracy (%)
Dibang Basin 1995 99 80 79.7 
2021 99 73 72.6 
Mago Basin 1988 90 90 84.3 
2017 97 97 84.0 
Subansiri Basin 2013 80 62 53.3 
2022 83 59 54.7 
BasinYearUser's accuracy (%)Producer's accuracy (%)Overall accuracy (%)
Dibang Basin 1995 99 80 79.7 
2021 99 73 72.6 
Mago Basin 1988 90 90 84.3 
2017 97 97 84.0 
Subansiri Basin 2013 80 62 53.3 
2022 83 59 54.7 
Table 7

High-altitude lakes

River BasinHigh-altitude lakes created
High-altitude lakes area changes
YearNo. of High-altitude lakesIncrease in no.Total High-altitude lakes area (km2)Area increase (km2)
Mago Basin 1988 83 25 3.16 2.89 
2017 108 6.05 
Subansiri Basin 2013 146 10.22 0.23 
2022 148 10.45 
Dibang Basin 1995 595 25 55.55 2.32 
2021 620 57.87 
River BasinHigh-altitude lakes created
High-altitude lakes area changes
YearNo. of High-altitude lakesIncrease in no.Total High-altitude lakes area (km2)Area increase (km2)
Mago Basin 1988 83 25 3.16 2.89 
2017 108 6.05 
Subansiri Basin 2013 146 10.22 0.23 
2022 148 10.45 
Dibang Basin 1995 595 25 55.55 2.32 
2021 620 57.87 
Figure 13

Mago Basin waterbody.

Figure 13

Mago Basin waterbody.

Close modal
Figure 14

Subansiri Basin waterbody.

Figure 14

Subansiri Basin waterbody.

Close modal
Figure 15

Dibang Basin waterbody.

Figure 15

Dibang Basin waterbody.

Close modal
The quantitative analysis in this study involved the mapping of glacial lakes with an area exceeding 0.008 km2, as detailed in Table 8 and Figure 16. A notable observation is the significant increase in both the number and area coverage of these lakes. Among the basins, the Dibang Basin stands out with the highest number of glacier lakes and the largest glacier lake area coverage. Over the observation period, the Dibang Basin witnessed growth from 20 glacial lakes out of 595 high-altitude lakes (covering 55.55 km2) in 1995 to 22 glacial lakes (4.30 km2) out of 620 high-altitude lakes (57.87 km2) in 2021, equating to a 0.68% annual rate of increase. The Mago Basin also displayed an increase from 15 glacial lakes (0.71 km2) out of 83 high-altitude lakes (3.16 km2) in 1988 to 25 glacial lakes (2.11 km2) out of 108 high-altitude lakes (6.05 km2) in 2017, reflecting a 3.31% annual growth rate. In the Subansiri Basin, the number of glacial lakes increased from four (0.81 km2) out of 146 high-altitude lakes in 2013 to an area coverage of 0.85 km2 (five glacier lakes) in 2022, marking a 0.54% annual increase. The temporal expansion of glacier lakes is shown in Figure 17.
Table 8

Glacier lakes analysis

Glacier lake analysis
River BasinGlacier lake created
Glacier lake area changes
YearNo. of glacier lakesTotal glacier lake area (km2)Total change (km2)Percentage difference (%) Increase (km2/year)Increase rate (% per year)
Mago Basin 1988 15 0.71 1.4 99.29 0.05 3.31 
2017 29 2.11     
Subansiri Basin 2013 0.81 0.04 74.82 0.004 0.48 
2022 0.85     
Dibang Basin 1995 20 3.58 0.72 18.27 0.03 0.68 
2021 22 4.30     
Glacier lake analysis
River BasinGlacier lake created
Glacier lake area changes
YearNo. of glacier lakesTotal glacier lake area (km2)Total change (km2)Percentage difference (%) Increase (km2/year)Increase rate (% per year)
Mago Basin 1988 15 0.71 1.4 99.29 0.05 3.31 
2017 29 2.11     
Subansiri Basin 2013 0.81 0.04 74.82 0.004 0.48 
2022 0.85     
Dibang Basin 1995 20 3.58 0.72 18.27 0.03 0.68 
2021 22 4.30     
Figure 16

Temporal glacier lake distribution.

Figure 16

Temporal glacier lake distribution.

Close modal
Figure 17

Glacier lakes: (a) Mago Basin, (b) Dibang Basin, and (c) Subansiri Basin.

Figure 17

Glacier lakes: (a) Mago Basin, (b) Dibang Basin, and (c) Subansiri Basin.

Close modal
The glacier lakes were categorized based on their size: large lakes (>1 km2), medium lakes (1‒0.1 km2), and small lakes (<0.1 km2). The results underscore the prevalence of small glacier lakes (<0.1 km2) in the study area. As detailed in Table 9 and Figure 18, observations reveal an increasing trend in the number of small and medium-sized glacier lakes in the Mago Basin from 1988 (13 small glacier lakes and 2 medium glacier lakes, covering 0.71 km2) to 2017 (24 small glacier lakes and 5 medium glacier lakes, covering 2.11 km2). In the Subansiri Basin, there was a change in the number of small and medium glacier lakes, along with their area coverage, over the observation period from 2013 (two small glacier lakes and two medium glacier lakes, covering 0.81 km2) to 2022 (three small glacier lakes and three medium glacier lakes, covering 0.85 km2). In the Dibang Basin, glacier lakes and their area coverage experienced an overall increase during the study period from 1995 (12 small glacier lakes, 8 medium glacier lakes, and 1 large glacier lake, covering 4.59 km2) to 2021 (10 small glacier lakes and 11 medium glacier lakes, covering 3.19 km2). However, small glacier lakes (<0.1 km2) exhibited a retreating trend, resulting in the diminishing of two small lakes and the transformation of a single large glacier lake in 1995 (1.02 km2) in the Dibang Basin into a medium-sized glacier lake in 2021, owing to the loss of a feeding source due to glacier retreat. Throughout the observation period, the Dibang Basin recorded the largest glacier lake area coverage (3.19 km2) in the year 2021.
Table 9

Glacier lake size distribution

Glacier lake size distribution
Glacier lake size (km2)Dibang Basin
Mago Basin
Subansiri Basin
No.
Area (km2)
No.
Area (km2)
No.
Area (km2)
199520211995202119882017198820172013202220132022
Small 12 10 0.71 0.78 13 24 0.45 0.81 0.10 0.12 
Medium 11 2.86 2.71 0.26 1.3 0.71 0.73 
Large – 1.02 – – – – – – – – – 
Total 20 22 4.59 3.19 15 29 0.71 2.11 0.81 0.85 
Glacier lake size distribution
Glacier lake size (km2)Dibang Basin
Mago Basin
Subansiri Basin
No.
Area (km2)
No.
Area (km2)
No.
Area (km2)
199520211995202119882017198820172013202220132022
Small 12 10 0.71 0.78 13 24 0.45 0.81 0.10 0.12 
Medium 11 2.86 2.71 0.26 1.3 0.71 0.73 
Large – 1.02 – – – – – – – – – 
Total 20 22 4.59 3.19 15 29 0.71 2.11 0.81 0.85 
Figure 18

Temporal glacier lake size distribution.

Figure 18

Temporal glacier lake size distribution.

Close modal

Glacial lakes are a valuable supply of fresh water and an integral part of the alpine environment, but they also catalyze numerous glacier risks (Richardson & Reynolds 2000). The average lake expansion rate of 889.08 m2/year was seen in the Mago Basin between 1988 and 2017. The average lake expansion rate of 154.45 m2/year was observed for Subansiri Basin during the observation period (2013–2022), and 137.93 m2/year for Dibang Basin during the observation period (1995–2021). These lakes may pose a risk for GLOF in the basin's drainage regions and further study on the GLOF susceptibility and hazard classification of these lakes can be performed.

Glaciers are natural freshwater reservoirs as well as a dynamic element of energy and mass interchange on Earth. It is a significant element of the water balance and contributes to the global water cycle (Rai et al. 2017); therefore, obtaining precise information about glacier surface areas and monitoring their changes regularly is of utmost importance. However, conducting field measurements for observing glacier variations is incredibly challenging and often unfeasible at consistent intervals, particularly in rugged terrains like the Himalayan region. This study introduced glacier inventory within the study area by comparing and selecting the best glacier delineation method among various remote sensing methods, namely, NDSI, single BRs (NIR/SWIR, Red/SWIR), and AGEI, for assessing glacier extent using Landsat series images. Meticulous determination of the optimal threshold value for each method and comparison of their results with the Google Earth images was performed to identify the most effective remote sensing technique for our study area. The comparative analysis established that the AGEI method with a 0.5 weighted coefficient was the best approach for mapping glaciers. Subsequently, the glacier map was derived for Mago Basin, Subansiri Basin, and Dibang Basin using AGEI and manually delineated up to the snouts of the glaciers. The final validation was conducted by comparing it with RGI v6.0, revealing a strong agreement between the two datasets.

It is critical to have reliable data on glacier surface area and to monitor changes regularly (Worni et al. 2013; Nie et al. 2017). When employing low revisit images like Landsat 8-OLI, it can be challenging to choose cloud-free images (Zhang et al. 2021). Due to the limited availability of cloud- and snow-free scenes, mapping glacier lakes using satellite imagery is a difficult undertaking in the Himalayas. Landsat imagery resources are scarce within the region encompassing our study area due to the presence of cloud cover (>10%), along with substantial snow cover, which compounded the complexity and limited the research task in 2017, 2021, and 2022. Hence, the subsequent latest years were selected for Mago Basin, Dibang Basin, and Subansiri Basin, respectively.

This study showed that the AGEI method with a weighted coefficient (α = 0.5) and water bodies extraction indices (NDWI, MNDWI, and NDTI) proficiently extracted glacier boundary and high-altitude lakes, which were differentiated into glacier-fed lakes, in the glaciated River Basins of Arunachal Pradesh. Further analysis concluded an inference that glaciers are retreating, and glacier lakes are increasing in number and area due to the global scenario of climate change.

The Mago Basin, Subansiri Basin, and Dibang Basin observed glacier retreat at the rate of 1.08, 1.01, and 1.42% per year, respectively, over the study period. The Dibang Basin experienced the most retreat (178–5,421 m.a.s.l.) whereas the Subansiri Basin (2,304–6,409 m.a.s.l.) experienced the least retreat. Most glaciers span across elevations 5,000 and 6,000 m.a.s.l. (Zhang et al. 2021), and the least glacier coverage was observed in elevations above 6,000 m only in the Subansiri Basin. This indicates that the deglaciation rate is increasing inversely to the elevation range, such that lower elevation is experiencing maximum deglaciation. Comprehending temporal analysis of glacier size, it can be inferred that the larger-sized glaciers retreated to form medium-sized glaciers and smaller-sized glaciers. The small-sized glaciers (<0.5 km2) are dominant due to their location at lower elevations (4,000–4,500 m), which experienced maximum deglaciation and will be diminished in future years at a higher rate due to the rising global warming scenario.

The formation of glacial lakes is due to variations in topography, elevation, meteorology, climate change, rate of glacier change, and the presence of ice areas with gentle slopes (Mir et al. 2014). The glacier lakes inventory showed that the largest glacier lake area coverage (3.19 km2) in 2021 was in the Dibang Basin. The Dibang Basin consists of the highest number of glacier lakes due to its relatively lower elevation compared to the other two basins and higher deglaciation factor leading to glacier melt feeding glacial lake formed by topographical structures holding the feed. The Subansiri Basin with the highest elevation is composed of the least numbers of glacial lakes due to direct drainage of glacier melt to the streams. Retreating glaciers feed glacier lakes, leading to increasing tendencies quantitatively both in number and area extent at the rate of 3.31, 0.48, and 0.68% per year for the Mago Basin, Subansiri Basin, and Dibang Basin, respectively.

In Dibang Basin, glacier lakes and area coverage experienced an overall increase during the study period, but two small glacier lake (<0.1 km2) diminished and one large glacier lake (1.02 km2) notably retreated in 1995 to form a medium-sized glacier lake in 2021 due to the reduced feeding from the diminishing glacier.

These fluctuations will impact the pace of lake expansion and the likelihood of outburst events in each of the sub-regions in the future (Wilson et al. 2018). According to the study, the Eastern Himalayas' cryosphere is adapting to climate change via retreating glaciers and changing glacial lakes. Other studies have noted a similar pattern in the Eastern Himalayas (Shrestha & Joshi 2009; Yao et al. 2012; Che et al. 2014; Ye et al. 2017; Shukla et al. 2018; Debnath et al. 2019; Alam & Bhardwaj 2020; Mal et al. 2020; Borah et al. 2022). Drawing upon the study analysis, it is inferred that the changes in climatic conditions are the key factor responsible for the decrease in glacier coverage observed in the study area.

This study illustrates a comparative analysis of various remote sensing, namely NDSI, single BR (NIR/SWIR, Red/SWIR), and AGEI methods to delineate glaciers by employing Landsat image. The newly developed AGEI method, which excelled in the accuracy assessment, was used to delineate the glacier boundary within the study region to improve the accuracy of mapping glaciers at the end of the melt season. The Mago Basin, Dibang Basin, and Subansiri Basin of Arunachal Pradesh in the Eastern Himalayas were selected for the study. Weighted coefficient α ∈ [0,1] as 0.5 was assigned to obtain the optimal threshold for mapping glaciers by optimizing multiple thresholds between 1.5 and 2.5 to automatically obtain the glacier pixels and thereby the glacier map of the basins. The Mago Basin, Subansiri Basin, and Dibang Basin observed glacier retreat at the rate of 1.08, 1.01, and 1.42% per year, respectively, over the study period. High-altitude lakes were extracted using NDWI, MNDWI, and NDTI, which were further differentiated into glacier-fed lakes as glacial lakes. Water indices pixel value ranged from −1 to 1; the higher range of positive values observed in water indices indicate water pixel class, and negative values indicate non-water land cover types. The negative NDTI indicates clear water, whereas the positive NDTI indicates highly turbid water. The thresholding or reclassification method was applied to create a binary image in terms of foreground (water pixels) and background (non-water pixels) which compared each pixel of an image to an optimum threshold value and pixels with higher water area probability were extracted. Retreating glaciers are feeding glacier lakes, leading to ascending tendencies quantitatively both in number and area extent was observed at the rate of 3.31, 0.48, and 0.68% per year for the Mago Basin, Subansiri Basin, and Dibang Basin, respectively. Glacier recession, largely attributed to the consequences of warming global climate, has led to the formation and sustenance of glacial lakes, thereby contributing to heightened risk of GLOFs. Simultaneously, the diminishing or recession of glaciers has led to the eventual disappearance of glacial lakes, impacting water source availability in the region. The outcomes of this current study are anticipated to provide valuable insights for governmental agencies, policymakers, and officials, enabling them to make informed decisions and implement essential measures for the sustainable management of water resources within the region.

The authors gratefully acknowledge the help, encouragement, and financial support provided by the Climate Change Programme (CCP), Strategic Programmes, Large Initiatives and Coordinated Action Enabler (SPLICE), Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India under National Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) through Grant No. DST/CCP/MRDP/184/2019.

The authors gratefully acknowledge the help, encouragement, and financial support provided by the Climate Change Programme (CCP), Strategic Programmes, Large Initiatives and Coordinated Action Enabler (SPLICE), Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India under National Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) through Grant No. DST/CCP/MRDP/184/2019.

All data used in this study are openly available in the public domain.

ArcMap and ArcGIS Pro are used under license which needs to be procured from ESRI. ERDAS Imagine is used under license which needs to be procured from Hexagon Geospatial.

Rimum Murtem rendered support in data acquisition, data preparation, methodology, and original draft preparation. Sameer Mandal rendered support in data acquisition, data preparation, and methodology. V. Nunchhani rendered support in data acquisition, data preparation, and methodology. Megozeno rendered support in data acquisition, data preparation, and methodology. Arnab Bandyopadhyay rendered support in supervision, manuscript editing, and communicating, and as a grant recipient. Aditi Bhadra rendered support in conceptualization, supervision, and visualization.

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.

The authors declare there is no conflict.

Alam
M.
&
Bhardwaj
S.
2020
Temporal variation in glacier's area and identification of glacial lakes in Sikkim
.
Geoecology of Landscape Dynamics
, 2020,
103
114
.
Baumhoer
C. A.
,
Dietz
A. J.
,
Kneisel
C.
&
Kuenzer
C.
2019
Automated extraction of antarctic glacier and ice shelf fronts from sentinel-1 imagery using deep learning
.
Remote Sensing
11
(
21
),
2529
.
Bhambri
R.
,
Bolch
T.
&
Chaujar
R. K.
2011
Mapping of debris-covered glaciers in the Garhwal Himalayas using ASTER DEMs and thermal data
.
International Journal of Remote Sensing
32
(
23
),
8095
8119
.
https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2010.532821
.
Bhambri
R.
,
Misra
A.
,
Kumar
A.
,
Gupta
A. K.
,
Verma
A.
&
Tiwari
S. K.
2018
Glacier lake inventory of Himachal Pradesh
.
Himalayan Geology
39
(
1
),
1
32
.
Bid
S.
&
Siddique
G.
2019
Identification of seasonal variation of water turbidity using NDTI method in Panchet Hill Dam, India
. In:
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment
, Vol.
5
, No.
4
.
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
, pp.
1179
1200
.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00609-8
.
Bolch
T.
,
Menounos
B.
&
Wheate
R.
2010
Landsat-based inventory of glaciers in western Canada, 1985–2005
.
Remote Sensing of Environment
114
(
1
),
127
137
.
Borah
S. B.
,
Das
A. K.
,
Hazarika
N.
&
Basumatary
H.
2022
Monitoring and assessment of glaciers and glacial lakes: Climate change impact on the Mago Chu Basin, Eastern Himalayas
.
Regional Environmental Change
22
(
4
).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01984-2
.
Cao
X. C.
,
Liu
Z. Z.
&
Li
W. S.
2016
Glacial lake mapping and analysis of the potentially dangerous glacial lakes before Nepal 4 25 Earthquake in 2015
.
Journal of Glaciology
38
(
3
),
573
583
.
Debnath
M.
,
Sharma
M. C.
&
Syiemlieh
H. J.
2019
Glacier dynamics in Changme Khangpu Basin, Sikkim Himalaya, India, between 1975 and 2016
.
Geosciences (Switzerland)
9
(
6
).
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060259
.
Gardelle
J.
,
Hiernaux
P.
,
Kergoat
L.
&
Grippa
M.
2010
Hydrology and earth system sciences less rain, more water in ponds: A remote sensing study of the dynamics of surface waters from 1950 to present in pastoral Sahel (Gourma region, Mali)
.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
14
.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-309-2010
.
Gurung
D. R.
,
Kulkarni
A. V.
,
Giriraj
A.
,
Aung
K. S.
,
Shrestha
B.
&
Srinivasan
J.
2011
Changes in seasonal snow cover in Hindu Kush-Himalayan region
.
The Cryosphere Discussions
5
(
2
),
755
777
.
Guyot
G.
1989
Signatures spectrales des surfaces naturelles. Télédétection satellitaire, 5, Col. SAT, Ed. Paradigme, 178
.
Haibo
Y.
,
Zongmin
W.
,
Hongling
Z.
&
Yu
G.
2011
Water body extraction methods study based on RS and GIS
.
Procedia Environmental Sciences
10
,
2619
2624
.
Huang
C.
,
Chen
Y.
,
Zhang
S.
&
Wu
J.
2018
Detecting, extracting, and monitoring surface water from space using optical sensors: A review
.
Reviews of Geophysics
56
(
2
),
333
360
.
Kargel
J. S.
,
Leonard
G. J.
,
Bishop
M. P.
,
Kääb
A.
&
Raup
B. H.
2014
Global Land Ice Measurements From Space
.
2014, Springer Praxis Books
,
UK.
Kaushik
S.
,
Joshi
P. K.
&
Singh
T.
2019
Development of glacier mapping in Indian Himalaya: A review of approaches
. In:
International Journal of Remote Sensing
, Vol.
40
, No.
17
.
Taylor and Francis Ltd
, pp.
6607
6634
.
https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2019.1582114
.
Kulkarni
A. V.
,
Rathore
B. P.
,
Mahajan
S.
&
Mathur
P.
2005
Alarming retreat of Parbati glacier, Beas basin, Himachal Pradesh
.
Current Science
88
(
11
),
1844
1850
.
Kulkarni
A. V.
,
Bahuguna
I. M.
,
Rathore
B. P.
,
Singh
S. K.
,
Randhawa
S. S.
,
Sood
R. K.
&
Dhar
S.
2007
Glacial retreat in Himalaya using Indian remote sensing satellite data
.
Current Science
92
(
1
),
69
74
.
Lacaux
J. P.
,
Tourre
Y. M.
,
Vignolles
C.
,
Ndione
J. A.
&
Lafaye
M.
2007
Classification of ponds from high-spatial resolution remote sensing: Application to Rift Valley Fever epidemics in Senegal
.
Remote Sensing of Environment
106
(
1
),
66
74
.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2006.07.012
.
Mal
S.
,
Kumar
A.
,
Bhambri
R.
,
Schickhoff
U.
&
Singh
R. B.
2020
Inventory and spatial distribution of glacial lakes in Arunachal Pradesh, Eastern Himalaya, India
.
Journal of the Geological Society of India
96
(
6
),
609
615
.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12594-020-1610-1
.
Mir
R. A.
,
Jain
S. K.
,
Saraf
A. K.
&
Goswami
A.
2014
Glacier changes using satellite data and effect of climate in Tirungkhad basin located in western Himalaya
.
Geocarto International
29
(
3
),
293
313
.
Mir
R. A.
,
Jain
S. K.
,
Jain
S. K.
,
Thayyen
R. J.
&
Saraf
A. K.
2017
Assessment of recent glacier changes and its controlling factors from 1976 to 2011 in Baspa Basin, Western Himalaya
.
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research
49
(
4
),
621
647
.
Mishra
K.
&
Prasad
P.
2015
Automatic extraction of water bodies from Landsat imagery using perceptron model
.
Journal of Computational Environmental Sciences
2015
,
1
9
.
Naik
B. C.
&
Anuradha
B.
2018
Extraction of water-body area from high-resolution Landsat imagery
.
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE)
8
(
6
),
4111
4119
.
Nie
Y.
,
Sheng
Y.
,
Liu
Q.
,
Liu
L.
,
Liu
S.
,
Zhang
Y.
&
Song
C.
2017
A regional-scale assessment of Himalayan glacial lake changes using satellite observations from 1990 to 2015
.
Remote Sensing of Environment
189
,
1
13
.
Panigrahy
S.
,
Patel
J. G.
&
Parihar
J. S.
2012
National Wetland Atlas: high altitude lakes of India
.
Space Applications Centre
,
ISRO, Ahmedabad, India
.
Patel
A.
,
Prajapati
R.
,
Dharpure
J. K.
,
Mani
S.
&
Chauhan
D.
2019
Mapping and monitoring of glacier areal changes using multispectral and elevation data: A case study over Chhota-Shigri glacier
.
Earth Science Informatics
12
(
4
),
489
499
.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-019-00388-x
.
Paul
F.
,
Barrand
N. E.
,
Baumann
S.
,
Berthier
E.
,
Bolch
T.
,
Casey
K.
,
Frey
H.
,
Joshi
S. P.
,
Konovalov
V.
&
Le Bris
R.
2013
On the accuracy of glacier outlines derived from remote-sensing data
.
Annals of Glaciology
54
(
63
),
171
182
.
Peng
C. U. I.
,
Rong
C.
,
Lingzhi
X.
&
Fenghuan
S.
2014
Risk analysis of mountain hazards in Tibetan Plateau under global warming
.
Advances in Climate Change Research
10
(
2
),
103
.
Rai
P. K.
,
Mishra
V. N.
,
Singh
S.
,
Prasad
R.
&
Nathawat
M. S.
2017
Remote sensing-based study for evaluating the changes in glacial area: A case study from Himachal Pradesh, India
.
Earth Systems and Environment
1
(
1
).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-017-0001-2
Richardson
S. D.
&
Reynolds
J. M.
2000
An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas
.
Quaternary International
65
,
31
47
.
Rokni
K.
,
Ahmad
A.
,
Selamat
A.
&
Hazini
S.
2014
Water feature extraction and change detection using multitemporal Landsat imagery
.
Remote Sensing
6
(
5
),
4173
4189
.
Song
C.
&
Sheng
Y.
2016
Contrasting evolution patterns between glacier-fed and non-glacier-fed lakes in the Tanggula Mountains and climate cause analysis
.
Climatic Change
135
(
3–4
),
493
507
.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1578-9
.
Tuan
V. A.
,
Hang
L. T. T.
&
Quang
N. H.
2019
Monitoring urban surface water bodies change using MNDWI estimated from pan-sharpened optical satellite images
. In:
Proceedings of the FIG Working Week
,
Hanoi, Vietnam
, pp.
22
26
.
Verbyla
D. L.
1995
Satellite remote sensing of natural resources
.
Lewis Publishers/CRC Press LLC
,
Boca Raton, FL
.
https://doi.org/10.1201/9780138740191
.
Wilson
R.
,
Glasser
N. F.
,
Reynolds
J. M.
,
Harrison
S.
,
Anacona
P. I.
,
Schaefer
M.
&
Shannon
S.
2018
Glacial lakes of the Central and Patagonian Andes
.
Global and Planetary Change
162
,
275
291
.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.01.004
.
Xu
H.
2006
Modification of normalised difference water index (NDWI) to enhance open water features in remotely sensed imagery
.
International Journal of Remote Sensing
27
(
14
),
3025
3033
.
https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160600589179
.
Yao
T.
,
Thompson
L.
,
Yang
W.
,
Yu
W.
,
Gao
Y.
,
Guo
X.
,
Yang
X.
,
Duan
K.
,
Zhao
H.
&
Xu
B.
2012
Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings
.
Nature Climate Change
2
(
9
),
663
667
.
Ye
Q.
,
Zong
J.
,
Tian
L.
,
Cogley
J. G.
,
Song
C.
&
Guo
W.
2017
Glacier changes on the Tibetan Plateau derived from Landsat imagery: Mid-1970s – 2000-13
.
Journal of Glaciology
63
(
238
),
273
287
.
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.137
.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits copying and redistribution for non-commercial purposes with no derivatives, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).