Future impacts of river flow on hydropower generation in Great Britain

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Climate change is likely to alter Great Britain (GB)'s water resource availability for hydropower generation. These changes affect hydropower production due to uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of water availability, particularly run of river (RoR) schemes that lack the necessary storage capacity to buffer seasonal flow variability. This study examines the likely future changes on RoR potential at locations across GB using the enhanced future flows (eFLaG) dataset of future flow projections. Results show that annual river flows are projected to increase in winter and spring but reduce in summer and autumn. These changes have an impact on RoR potential with a projected decrease in the near (2030–2059) and far future (2050–2079) for both summer (−19%, −32%) and autumn (−11%, −19%) throughout GB. Therefore, results indicate a general decrease in the annual RoR potential in GB. This study underscores the importance of incorporating climate change considerations in the planning and operation of RoR schemes to ensure sustainable energy generation. This could be achieved by upgrading existing turbines to handle higher flows or designing new turbines capable of accommodating larger discharges to fully utilise the increased flows during winter. However, this should be done with consideration of the technical limitations and the opportunities for optimisations for system generation.

• Climate change disrupts Great Britain (GB's) water resources, impacting hydropower through increased variability.

• The study focuses on future water availability, especially for storage-limited run of river (RoR) schemes.

• Using the enhanced future flows (eFLaG) dataset, research maps future RoR hydropower changes in GB.

• Results show reduced annual river flows near RoR sites, with varied trends impacting hydropower.