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Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that causes hydrological imbalances, significantly impacting agricultural production in Ethiopia. This study aims to assess and map drought-risk areas in the East Hararge zone using satellite data and global climate models. We analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of historical droughts through remotely sensed Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) rainfall and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation data, utilizing the CanESM5 dataset from CMIP6 to identify drought risk under changing climate conditions. Drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), adjusted SPI (aSPI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and NDVI anomaly were employed, with validation against crop yield anomalies showing correlation coefficients of r = 0.72, 0.74, and 0.78 for SPI, NDVI, and NDVI anomaly, respectively. The analysis revealed that 29.8 and 26.7% of the area experienced moderate and slight drought over the past 12 years, respectively. Trend analysis indicated a significant increase in drought occurrences with a rate of −0.003 (p = 0.046) based on SPI_6, while aSPI analysis showed a general decrease in drought risk areas at a rate of 0.466. Frequency analysis projected drought occurrence every 2 years under the SSP2 4.5 scenario. This study provides essential baseline information and future predictions to monitor real-time drought situations and inform adaptation strategies in East Hararge, Ethiopia.

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  • The study aimed to assess and map drought-risk areas in the East Hararge zone of Ethiopia using satellite data and global climate models.

  • The analysis utilized remotely sensed CHIRPS rainfall and MODIS vegetation data, employing the SPI and NDVI anomaly to assess drought-risk areas.

  • The years 2015, 2016, and 2022 were identified as the worst drought years in the last decade, while 2019 was noted as the wettest.

CHIRPS, CMIP6, drought indices, East Hararge zone in Ethiopia, MODIS
© 2025 The Authors
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