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With the use of projected LSAVs by GCMs and the proposed ANN models, seasonal rainfall in the Ping River Basin was forecasted until 2040. The base period data from 1971 to 2000 and the climatology period data from 2011 to 2040 were analyzed to discover the trends in observed and forecasted rainfall. Table 7 presents the results of the regression analysis, and the Mann–Kendall test, including Sen's slope. While none of the trends is significant at 95% confidence level (α = 0.05), the directions of these trends are similar in the three analyses for all the seasons.

Table 7

Summary of results of trend analysis

RegressionMann–KendallSen'sAt 95% of confidence level
Seasonanalysistest (Z)slope (S)SminSmax
Observed data (1971–2000) 
 MJJ −1.10 −0.46 −1.21 −5.469 3.175 
 ASO −2.20 −1.43 −2.13 −5.274 1.063 
 NDJ −1.20 −0.86 −0.73 −3.078 1.078 
 FMA 1.25 0.75 0.76 −1.128 2.795 
CSIRO Mk3.6 (2011–2040) 
 MJJ −1.10 −0.89 −1.16 −3.958 1.127 
 ASO 1.08 0.43 0.42 −2.209 3.138 
 NDJ −0.43 −1.28 −0.44 −1.567 0.197 
 FMA −1.32 −0.93 −1.25 −3.340 0.984 
MPI-ESM-MR (2011–2040) 
 MJJ −1.80 −1.46 −1.88 −4.208 0.448 
 ASO 0.90 0.36 0.45 −2.964 4.183 
 NDJ −0.61 −0.86 −0.04 −0.289 0.070 
 FMA 0.92 0.86 1.11 −1.323 3.329 
RegressionMann–KendallSen'sAt 95% of confidence level
Seasonanalysistest (Z)slope (S)SminSmax
Observed data (1971–2000) 
 MJJ −1.10 −0.46 −1.21 −5.469 3.175 
 ASO −2.20 −1.43 −2.13 −5.274 1.063 
 NDJ −1.20 −0.86 −0.73 −3.078 1.078 
 FMA 1.25 0.75 0.76 −1.128 2.795 
CSIRO Mk3.6 (2011–2040) 
 MJJ −1.10 −0.89 −1.16 −3.958 1.127 
 ASO 1.08 0.43 0.42 −2.209 3.138 
 NDJ −0.43 −1.28 −0.44 −1.567 0.197 
 FMA −1.32 −0.93 −1.25 −3.340 0.984 
MPI-ESM-MR (2011–2040) 
 MJJ −1.80 −1.46 −1.88 −4.208 0.448 
 ASO 0.90 0.36 0.45 −2.964 4.183 
 NDJ −0.61 −0.86 −0.04 −0.289 0.070 
 FMA 0.92 0.86 1.11 −1.323 3.329 

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