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Table 2 shows the discharge diversion ratio of the main stream at Zhicheng to the JTO from 1994 to 2014. The discharge diversion ratio at the JTO can reflect the interactive strength between the Yangtze River and the Dongting Lake. The observed total discharge diversion ratio is 17.31% and 15.11% in 1994–2002 and 2003–2014, respectively. The estimated total discharge diversion ratio under no channel changes is 16.79% in 2003–2014. The observed total discharge diversion ratio in 2003–2014 decreases by approximately 2.20% compared with that in 1994–2002. The channel changes reduce the total decrease of the discharge diversion ratio to 1.68% (Table 2), which is nearly 76.36% of the total decrease of the discharge diversion ratio in 2003–2014. This result reveals that the channel changes are the major factor that affects the decrease of the discharge diversion ratio after the TGD operation. This result is also consistent with the perspectives obtained from several previous studies (Chang et al. 2010; Lu et al. 2012).

Table 2

Comparison of the observed and estimated discharge diversion ratios in 2003–2014

 Xinjiangkou (%)
Shadaoguan (%)
Mituosi (%)
Ouchi (kang) (%)
Ouchi (guan) (%)
Total (%)
YearObsEstObsEstObsEstObsEstObsEstObsEst
1994–2002 7.46 7.46 1.90 1.89 3.51 3.46 0.26 0.26 4.19 4.18 17.31 17.26 
2003 7.34 7.94 2.04 2.22 3.09 3.76 0.21 0.31 3.81 4.73 16.50 18.96 
2004 7.52 7.74 1.83 1.82 3.18 3.69 0.15 0.22 3.32 4.01 16.00 17.49 
2005 8.22 8.00 2.18 2.09 3.43 3.78 0.20 0.28 3.90 4.53 17.94 18.68 
2006 5.14 5.76 0.53 0.63 1.73 2.30 0.02 0.04 1.46 1.84 8.89 10.57 
2007 7.64 7.75 1.89 2.02 3.04 3.59 0.18 0.28 3.72 4.43 16.46 18.08 
2008 7.31 7.64 1.72 1.82 2.86 3.60 0.12 0.22 3.39 3.95 15.41 17.22 
2009 6.89 7.54 1.62 1.75 2.84 3.52 0.11 0.21 3.05 3.83 14.51 16.85 
2010 7.87 7.78 1.93 1.95 3.30 3.68 0.18 0.25 4.07 4.22 17.35 17.88 
2011 6.23 6.47 0.95 1.08 1.94 2.83 0.03 0.10 1.87 2.59 11.02 13.07 
2012 8.35 8.08 2.10 2.16 3.12 3.83 0.18 0.29 3.94 4.67 17.70 19.05 
2013 7.10 7.34 1.49 1.64 2.45 3.41 0.06 0.19 2.76 3.61 13.85 16.19 
2014 7.49 7.88 1.90 1.95 2.67 3.76 0.10 0.24 3.56 4.20 15.71 18.03 
2003–2014 7.26 7.45 1.68 1.76 2.81 3.48 0.13 0.22 3.24 3.89 15.11 16.79 
 Xinjiangkou (%)
Shadaoguan (%)
Mituosi (%)
Ouchi (kang) (%)
Ouchi (guan) (%)
Total (%)
YearObsEstObsEstObsEstObsEstObsEstObsEst
1994–2002 7.46 7.46 1.90 1.89 3.51 3.46 0.26 0.26 4.19 4.18 17.31 17.26 
2003 7.34 7.94 2.04 2.22 3.09 3.76 0.21 0.31 3.81 4.73 16.50 18.96 
2004 7.52 7.74 1.83 1.82 3.18 3.69 0.15 0.22 3.32 4.01 16.00 17.49 
2005 8.22 8.00 2.18 2.09 3.43 3.78 0.20 0.28 3.90 4.53 17.94 18.68 
2006 5.14 5.76 0.53 0.63 1.73 2.30 0.02 0.04 1.46 1.84 8.89 10.57 
2007 7.64 7.75 1.89 2.02 3.04 3.59 0.18 0.28 3.72 4.43 16.46 18.08 
2008 7.31 7.64 1.72 1.82 2.86 3.60 0.12 0.22 3.39 3.95 15.41 17.22 
2009 6.89 7.54 1.62 1.75 2.84 3.52 0.11 0.21 3.05 3.83 14.51 16.85 
2010 7.87 7.78 1.93 1.95 3.30 3.68 0.18 0.25 4.07 4.22 17.35 17.88 
2011 6.23 6.47 0.95 1.08 1.94 2.83 0.03 0.10 1.87 2.59 11.02 13.07 
2012 8.35 8.08 2.10 2.16 3.12 3.83 0.18 0.29 3.94 4.67 17.70 19.05 
2013 7.10 7.34 1.49 1.64 2.45 3.41 0.06 0.19 2.76 3.61 13.85 16.19 
2014 7.49 7.88 1.90 1.95 2.67 3.76 0.10 0.24 3.56 4.20 15.71 18.03 
2003–2014 7.26 7.45 1.68 1.76 2.81 3.48 0.13 0.22 3.24 3.89 15.11 16.79 

‘Obs’ represents the actual discharge diversion ratio. ‘Est’ represents the discharge diversion ratio under no channel change.

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