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The above optimal operation schemes would be determined for the individual scenarios through the optimization model. Table 6 compares the predictions of EWD satisfaction rates in different scenarios of Case I. Assuming no effect of reservoirs (Scenario 0), the SVR-based model results show that the EWD satisfaction rates for all lake regions are moderately larger than 100% during the high-risk period, implying that the ‘natural’ river regimes in the normal condition can meet the environmental water requirements of the lake. However, the presence of upper reservoirs causes a marked decrease in EWD satisfaction rates. With the existing reservoir operation schemes (Scenario 1), it is estimated that all lake regions' EWD satisfaction rates would fall within the range of 80–90%. In particular, the value for the western region significantly decreases from 139.47% to 87.14% because of the dual effects of the TGR and 4 tributary reservoirs.

Table 6

EWD satisfaction rates for different scenarios (late September to late October, Case I)

Lake regionScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
The eastern region 111.60% 82.38% 87.16% 83.64% 97.86% 
The southern region 114.10% 89.26% 91.65% 92.22% 94.44% 
The western region 139.47% 87.14% 91.83% 87.66% 92.30% 
Dongting Lake 117.92% 85.40% 89.44% 87.02% 95.73% 
Lake regionScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
The eastern region 111.60% 82.38% 87.16% 83.64% 97.86% 
The southern region 114.10% 89.26% 91.65% 92.22% 94.44% 
The western region 139.47% 87.14% 91.83% 87.66% 92.30% 
Dongting Lake 117.92% 85.40% 89.44% 87.02% 95.73% 

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