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The annual baseline-to-scenario change in the key meteorological variables used in the various PET methods is shown in Table 1. NCAR precipitation increases the least (1.4%), while IPSL has the largest increase in precipitation of 12.3% (Table 1). CCCMA had the largest increase in mean temperature, with a value of 1.7 °C, and MPI having the smallest temperature increase (1.2 °C). Vapour pressure increases by between 0.8% (MPI) and 1.3 hPa (HadCM3, CCCMA), whilst net radiation decreases for all GCMs, by 0.3% (HadCM3) to 3.5% (CCCMA).

Table 1

The annual average change value for meteorological variables and each GCM

Tmean (°C)Tmin (°C)Tmax (°C)Vapour pressure (hPa)Radiation (%)Precipitation (%)
HadCM3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.3 5.0 
CCCMA 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 3.5 5.2 
IPSL 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.6 12.3 
MPI 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.3 7.6 
NCAR 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 
Tmean (°C)Tmin (°C)Tmax (°C)Vapour pressure (hPa)Radiation (%)Precipitation (%)
HadCM3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.3 5.0 
CCCMA 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 3.5 5.2 
IPSL 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.6 12.3 
MPI 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.3 7.6 
NCAR 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 

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