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The annual PET percentage change for the PET methods under each GCM is shown in Table 2. With the exception of the HadCM3 scenario, the two physical PET methods (Penman, Granger) have the smallest increase or a decrease in annual PET. Granger decreases for three of the five GCM scenarios. The radiation and temperature-based methods have increases in annual PET for all GCMs. The Jensen-Haise and the Priestley-Taylor methods give relatively similar results for each GCM, whereas the Hamon and Hargreaves are frequently quite different. This is largely due to the variation in the Hargreaves method between GCMs, which ranges from a relatively small increase (MPI, 4.1% or 12.1 mm from the 294 mm baseline) to the largest increase across all method and scenarios (NCAR, 17.1% or 50.3 mm).

Table 2

The annual PET percentage change for each PET method. The numbers in bold type are the mean of the range across GCMs (final column) and PET methods (final row)

CCCMAHadCM3IPSLMPINCARRange
H-S 5.7 5.7 9.8 4.1 17.1 13.0 
Ham 10.3 10.2 7.9 7.2 9.9 3.1 
J-H 7.0 10.4 6.1 6.1 9.1 4.3 
P-T 7.7 11.2 7.3 7.1 9.8 4.1 
Pen 4.8 6.5 0.6 6.0 6.9 6.3 
Gran 1.0 11.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 10.4 (6.7) 
Range 11.3 5.7 9.2 6.8 16.6 (9.9)  
CCCMAHadCM3IPSLMPINCARRange
H-S 5.7 5.7 9.8 4.1 17.1 13.0 
Ham 10.3 10.2 7.9 7.2 9.9 3.1 
J-H 7.0 10.4 6.1 6.1 9.1 4.3 
P-T 7.7 11.2 7.3 7.1 9.8 4.1 
Pen 4.8 6.5 0.6 6.0 6.9 6.3 
Gran 1.0 11.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 10.4 (6.7) 
Range 11.3 5.7 9.2 6.8 16.6 (9.9)  

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