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Following the procedure detailed above under ‘Reproduction of past climate at key stations and bias-correction’, the monthly bias-correction (Johnson & Sharma 2012) was applied over the period 1950–1989 and it was validated for the period 1990–2010. Table 6 shows the statistics of precipitation reproduced by the downscaling model developed at key station 79046 when it was run with the 20C3M outputs of HadCM3, before and after the application of the monthly bias-correction. Note that the statistics of evaporation, minimum temperature and maximum temperature reproduced by the downscaling model developed at key station 79046 before and after the monthly bias-correction are not shown in tabular form.

Table 6

Statistics of precipitation reproduced by downscaling model at key station 79046, with 20C3M outputs of HadCM3, before and after bias-correction

  Application (1950–1989)
Validation (1990–1999)
Season
Season
ModelStatisticSummerAutumnWinterSpringSummerAutumnWinterSpring
Observed Avg 40.9 67.9 108.5 80.8 42.3 53.1 119.0 77.8 
Before B-C 66.3 102.2 156.5 83.4 69.9 106.1 137.0 82.6 
After B-C 41.1 68.1 108.5 80.8 44.5 75.4 101.8 81.1 
Observed Std 32.2 49.6 50.2 43.2 37.2 42.9 57.8 41.8 
Before B-C 32.1 34.4 137.0 47.6 35.1 39.4 93.6 52.5 
After B-C 31.9 49.2 50.2 43.2 35.0 70.7 37.1 47.5 
Observed Min 2.3 3.1 14.5 10.4 0.0 4.0 29.8 21.8 
Before B-C 17.7 18.4 0.0 0.0 21.3 46.3 0.0 0.0 
After B-C 0.0 0.0 2.4 17.0 0.0 9.0 3.5 20.6 
Observed Max 163.4 246.7 273.7 246.2 155.0 137.8 234.2 189.6 
Before B-C 183.7 189.6 1091.1 187.9 145.4 212.7 420.7 163.7 
After B-C 144.0 245.4 323.6 193.5 126.2 298.1 209.3 236.8 
Before B-C NSE –1.17 –0.40 –9.29 –1.00 –1.30 –1.91 –2.70 –0.87 
After B-C –0.54 –0.27 –1.03 –0.90 –0.64 –2.46 –0.48 –1.22 
  Application (1950–1989)
Validation (1990–1999)
Season
Season
ModelStatisticSummerAutumnWinterSpringSummerAutumnWinterSpring
Observed Avg 40.9 67.9 108.5 80.8 42.3 53.1 119.0 77.8 
Before B-C 66.3 102.2 156.5 83.4 69.9 106.1 137.0 82.6 
After B-C 41.1 68.1 108.5 80.8 44.5 75.4 101.8 81.1 
Observed Std 32.2 49.6 50.2 43.2 37.2 42.9 57.8 41.8 
Before B-C 32.1 34.4 137.0 47.6 35.1 39.4 93.6 52.5 
After B-C 31.9 49.2 50.2 43.2 35.0 70.7 37.1 47.5 
Observed Min 2.3 3.1 14.5 10.4 0.0 4.0 29.8 21.8 
Before B-C 17.7 18.4 0.0 0.0 21.3 46.3 0.0 0.0 
After B-C 0.0 0.0 2.4 17.0 0.0 9.0 3.5 20.6 
Observed Max 163.4 246.7 273.7 246.2 155.0 137.8 234.2 189.6 
Before B-C 183.7 189.6 1091.1 187.9 145.4 212.7 420.7 163.7 
After B-C 144.0 245.4 323.6 193.5 126.2 298.1 209.3 236.8 
Before B-C NSE –1.17 –0.40 –9.29 –1.00 –1.30 –1.91 –2.70 –0.87 
After B-C –0.54 –0.27 –1.03 –0.90 –0.64 –2.46 –0.48 –1.22 

Avg, average of monthly precipitation in mm; Std, standard deviation of monthly precipitation in mm; Min, minimum of monthly precipitation in mm; Max, maximum of monthly precipitation in mm; NSE, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency; Before B-C, before bias-correction; After B-C, after bias-correction.

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