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The test results for the observed data and the different combinations of D components are presented in Table 5. The M-K trend analysis of the observed temperature data shows increasing tendencies at all the stations except one. Moreover, two stations (İzmir and Eskişehir) show a significance trend at the 10% significance level. The results demonstrate that the average annual temperature data in Western Turkey have a warming tendency for the 1951 to 2005 period. This was confirmed by the decreases in the precipitation data as found in the section above. It can be said that an increase in temperature coincides generally with a decrease in precipitation. On the other hand, it is interesting that the Eskişehir station presents a strong decreasing trend at the 10% significance level.

Table 5

Mann–Kendall test values of the annual temperatures: observed data, detail components (D1–D5), approximations (A4), and a set of combination of the details and approximation

DataMuğlaİzmirAydınManisaEdirneBursaAfyonEskişehir
Observed 0.90 1.73* 0.47 0.81 0.57 1.09 1.35 −1.72* 
D1 0.20 0.27 0.01 0.20 0.01 0.08 0.23 −0.13 
D2 −0.11 −0.05 −0.02 −0.14 −0.47 −0.11 0.33 −0.37 
D3 1.26 1.66 1.49 1.65 1.66 0.75 0.33 −0.36 
D4 2.77** 2.71** 2.25** 2.72** 2.29** 2.25** 3.00** −0.49 
D5 −0.59 1.37 −0.50 0.71 −1.36 4.10** 0.82 −6.70** 
−0.58 1.65 −0.55 0.58 −1.30 3.15** 0.90 −5.47** 
D1 + A 0.21 2.09** 0.46 1.07 0.27 1.45 1.07 −2.26** 
D2 + A −0.23 0.92 −0.72 0.01 −1.59 0.94 0.53 −3.65** 
D3 + A 0.72 1.56 0.49 0.52 −0.04 1.78* 0.66 −4.84** 
D4 + A 1.17 1.94** 0.50 1.69* −0.52 2.39** −0.33 −4.98** 
D5 + A −0.53 1.49 −0.55 0.75 −1.32 3.92** 0.90 −6.41** 
DataMuğlaİzmirAydınManisaEdirneBursaAfyonEskişehir
Observed 0.90 1.73* 0.47 0.81 0.57 1.09 1.35 −1.72* 
D1 0.20 0.27 0.01 0.20 0.01 0.08 0.23 −0.13 
D2 −0.11 −0.05 −0.02 −0.14 −0.47 −0.11 0.33 −0.37 
D3 1.26 1.66 1.49 1.65 1.66 0.75 0.33 −0.36 
D4 2.77** 2.71** 2.25** 2.72** 2.29** 2.25** 3.00** −0.49 
D5 −0.59 1.37 −0.50 0.71 −1.36 4.10** 0.82 −6.70** 
−0.58 1.65 −0.55 0.58 −1.30 3.15** 0.90 −5.47** 
D1 + A 0.21 2.09** 0.46 1.07 0.27 1.45 1.07 −2.26** 
D2 + A −0.23 0.92 −0.72 0.01 −1.59 0.94 0.53 −3.65** 
D3 + A 0.72 1.56 0.49 0.52 −0.04 1.78* 0.66 −4.84** 
D4 + A 1.17 1.94** 0.50 1.69* −0.52 2.39** −0.33 −4.98** 
D5 + A −0.53 1.49 −0.55 0.75 −1.32 3.92** 0.90 −6.41** 

*Indicates significant trend values at p = 10%.

**Indicates significant trend values at p = 5%.

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