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In order to develop a proper model, we assume that rainfall and air temperature predetermine the flow rate. One should note that these climatic data were the only reliable numeric information about the investigated watershed, which is the reason why the prediction model is developed solely as a function of rainfall and air temperature. Input data for these two main input parameters are provided by the observations made at 16 meteorological stations (Figure 1(a)). Averaged monthly time series of rainfall and temperature are obtained by Thiessen polygons which define individual areas of influence around each set of meteorological stations. In the present case, a model is formulated for the observations made in the period 1950–1990, while its predictive power is verified for the period 1991–2012. Input data used for model formulation are shown in Figure 1(b). The necessary hydrologic time series were obtained from the Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (Table 1) (Hydrometeorological Yearbooks 2014).

Table 1

Analyzed meteorological stations (m.s.) in Great Morava river basin with mean annual sums of precipitation (mm), mean annual temperatures (°C), and standard deviation of mean annual sums of rainfall (σP) and temperature (σT)

StationMean annual sums of precipitation (mm)σP (mm)Mean annual values of temperature (°C)σT (°C)
m.s. Smederevska P. 637.2 113.5 11.5 0.740 
m.s. Zaječar 607.8 120.4 10.8 0.723 
m.s. Crni vrh 789.1 142.9 8.6 2.058 
m.s. Ćuprija 656.8 120.7 11.1 0.717 
m.s. Kragujevac 628.1 114.0 11.4 0.732 
m.s. Valjevo 782.7 131.7 11.2 0.730 
m.s. Kruševac 647.0 131.7 11.2 0.752 
m.s. Kraljevo 750.6 132.2 11.3 0.676 
m.s. Zaltibor 967.2 144.9 7.5 0.745 
m.s. Niš 588.0 99.1 11.8 0.743 
m.s. Novi Pazar 625.7 115.1 9.4 0.888 
m.s. Sjenica 726.1 129.2 6.5 0.707 
m.s. Dimitrovgrad 632.8 114.3 10.0 0.729 
m.s. Leskovac 619.0 111.7 11.1 0.711 
m.s. Vranje 604.8 118.3 11.1 0.651 
m.s. Kuršumlija 647.1 123.8 10.3 0.703 
StationMean annual sums of precipitation (mm)σP (mm)Mean annual values of temperature (°C)σT (°C)
m.s. Smederevska P. 637.2 113.5 11.5 0.740 
m.s. Zaječar 607.8 120.4 10.8 0.723 
m.s. Crni vrh 789.1 142.9 8.6 2.058 
m.s. Ćuprija 656.8 120.7 11.1 0.717 
m.s. Kragujevac 628.1 114.0 11.4 0.732 
m.s. Valjevo 782.7 131.7 11.2 0.730 
m.s. Kruševac 647.0 131.7 11.2 0.752 
m.s. Kraljevo 750.6 132.2 11.3 0.676 
m.s. Zaltibor 967.2 144.9 7.5 0.745 
m.s. Niš 588.0 99.1 11.8 0.743 
m.s. Novi Pazar 625.7 115.1 9.4 0.888 
m.s. Sjenica 726.1 129.2 6.5 0.707 
m.s. Dimitrovgrad 632.8 114.3 10.0 0.729 
m.s. Leskovac 619.0 111.7 11.1 0.711 
m.s. Vranje 604.8 118.3 11.1 0.651 
m.s. Kuršumlija 647.1 123.8 10.3 0.703 

The mean annual flow and its standard deviation at considered hydrological station (h.s.) Ljubičevski Most are 229.3 m3/s and 73.2 m3/s, respectively.

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