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There is a wide range of approaches used to look at the aptitude of precipitation conjectures (Abbot & Marohasy 2014). The skill score of a model is calculated to get an indication about the performance of forecasts for future events. In an attempt to assess the accuracy of forecasts, skill score has been calculated for each month of the eight different sites. Skill score is a technique that is used to demonstrate the accuracy of a specific method in prediction. Skill score assesses the accuracy of a model based on a reference model. Our model was compared and evaluated against climatology. Climatology is a technique for forecasting rainfall based on the average of months, e.g. rainfall forecast for a specific month is the average of the rainfall values collected from the previous same month back to a specific time. Formula of skill score:
formula
where RMSEref is the RMSE value calculated for the reference forecasts (climatology), and RMSE is related to the model to be assessed (ANNs model). Skill Score can be either positive or negative. A 0 skill-score means that the tested model has no skill in prediction; 100 means perfect forecasts. Skill score values were generated for each approach. Climatology forecasts were collected from BOM. Table 5 represents skill scores for seasonal forecasts with the all months optimization approach, Table 6 represents skill scores for seasonal forecasts with single month optimization, Table 7 represents annual forecasts with all months optimization, and Table 8 represents annual forecasts skill score results for annual forecasts with single month optimization.
Table 5

Skill score results for the eight cities used in this study, all months optimization seasonal forecasts

 City
MonthBingeraFairymeadKalamiaMacknadeMaryboroughMossmanPlane CreekVictoria Plantation
January 49.2 70.1 7.6 56.9 52.2 22.6 −47.8 49.4 
February 32.1 51.0 39.9 33.2 35.8 30.7 11.5 59.9 
March 25.6 43.7 18.1 25.6 13.7 23.2 31.4 19.0 
April −2.0 23.3 −5.8 35.2 11.7 −6.9 −38.5 −13.2 
May 10.9 1.2 −45.3 −29.0 −13.4 −8.1 −11.0 −18.4 
June −2.8 2.9 −31.3 −14.3 −13.5 −2.5 −3.4 12.5 
July 14.9 −1.6 −40.3 −30.3 12.0 −6.5 −64.3 9.0 
August 4.2 −9.7 10.0 −36.5 −4.1 −5.7 −49.0 −1.1 
September 4.6 53.0 0.9 12.9 −19.3 2.1 36.4 −1.7 
October −40.8 −8.6 −22.8 −3.2 −16.9 −1.0 −7.5 −4.9 
November −26.2 −6.1 6.6 −4.1 −24.3 −14.3 12.8 6.8 
December 58.9 66.8 −1.8 38.0 51.6 18.5 22.2 −46.3 
 City
MonthBingeraFairymeadKalamiaMacknadeMaryboroughMossmanPlane CreekVictoria Plantation
January 49.2 70.1 7.6 56.9 52.2 22.6 −47.8 49.4 
February 32.1 51.0 39.9 33.2 35.8 30.7 11.5 59.9 
March 25.6 43.7 18.1 25.6 13.7 23.2 31.4 19.0 
April −2.0 23.3 −5.8 35.2 11.7 −6.9 −38.5 −13.2 
May 10.9 1.2 −45.3 −29.0 −13.4 −8.1 −11.0 −18.4 
June −2.8 2.9 −31.3 −14.3 −13.5 −2.5 −3.4 12.5 
July 14.9 −1.6 −40.3 −30.3 12.0 −6.5 −64.3 9.0 
August 4.2 −9.7 10.0 −36.5 −4.1 −5.7 −49.0 −1.1 
September 4.6 53.0 0.9 12.9 −19.3 2.1 36.4 −1.7 
October −40.8 −8.6 −22.8 −3.2 −16.9 −1.0 −7.5 −4.9 
November −26.2 −6.1 6.6 −4.1 −24.3 −14.3 12.8 6.8 
December 58.9 66.8 −1.8 38.0 51.6 18.5 22.2 −46.3 
Table 6

Skill score results for the eight cities used in this study, one single month optimization seasonal forecasts

 Area
MonthBingeraFairymeadKalamiaMacknadeMaryboroughMossmanPlane CreekVictoria Plantation
January 79.1 18.0 27.8 59.6 56.0 17.14 33.9 27.7 
February 77.6 69.5 55.0 53.0 33.4 45.3 34.1 48.4 
March 50.5 68.9 71.0 50.9 20.9 68.2 41.7 78.7 
April 77.2 40.3 57.9 70.3 35.5 72.5 44.8 38.2 
May 49.7 28.1 34.5 72.9 57.4 45.5 81.5 39.8 
June 77.0 85.5 41.2 70.0 74.0 33.5 57.3 77.7 
July 64.7 42.6 81.8 66.3 52.1 51.8 67.6 38.4 
August 39.8 69.5 72.4 49.6 15.0 60.3 50.4 56.7 
September 66.9 69.8 62.6 72.4 69.2 76.8 52.2 24.6 
October 26.3 60.3 31.9 75.3 51.2 76.5 47.2 83.7 
November 77.6 72.5 46.3 88.7 55.2 41.6 61.1 38.1 
December 40.9 60.0 78.6 71.6 47.5 29.0 50.2 52.8 
 Area
MonthBingeraFairymeadKalamiaMacknadeMaryboroughMossmanPlane CreekVictoria Plantation
January 79.1 18.0 27.8 59.6 56.0 17.14 33.9 27.7 
February 77.6 69.5 55.0 53.0 33.4 45.3 34.1 48.4 
March 50.5 68.9 71.0 50.9 20.9 68.2 41.7 78.7 
April 77.2 40.3 57.9 70.3 35.5 72.5 44.8 38.2 
May 49.7 28.1 34.5 72.9 57.4 45.5 81.5 39.8 
June 77.0 85.5 41.2 70.0 74.0 33.5 57.3 77.7 
July 64.7 42.6 81.8 66.3 52.1 51.8 67.6 38.4 
August 39.8 69.5 72.4 49.6 15.0 60.3 50.4 56.7 
September 66.9 69.8 62.6 72.4 69.2 76.8 52.2 24.6 
October 26.3 60.3 31.9 75.3 51.2 76.5 47.2 83.7 
November 77.6 72.5 46.3 88.7 55.2 41.6 61.1 38.1 
December 40.9 60.0 78.6 71.6 47.5 29.0 50.2 52.8 
Table 7

Skill score results for the eight cities used in this study, all months optimization annual forecasts

 Area
MonthBingeraFairymeadKalamiaMacknadeMaryboroughMossmanPlane creekVictoria Plantation
January 31.2 17.5 53.8 44.9 48.4 36.4 −15.2 12.1 
February 10.7 17.7 62.7 18.3 43.3 10.1 43.1 14.7 
March 27.6 12.1 14.6 4.1 60.7 38.1 18.7 39.3 
April −0.5 10.7 −4.8 −0.3 −0.2 46.7 −4.6 16.5 
May 9.0 5.2 −39.7 −25.7 9.5 −14.9 −24.9 −24.1 
June −7.1 −21.6 −2.2 −4.0 −25.1 −21.0 −9.8 −16.8 
July 2.8 16.7 −19.1 2.7 −4.4 −48.2 −11.0 −2.0 
August −17.0 −5.1 −1.9 29.6 1.5 13.1 −0.6 −27.5 
September 34.5 −12.8 −8.5 11.6 4.6 −0.2 −3.2 −3.8 
October 10.0 30.2 −49.4 −8.9 12.0 −25.8 16.4 −10.4 
November 3.3 −1.4 −8.2 60.3 1.2 −12.2 16.2 1.8 
December 30.4 18.6 45.8 65.8 37.4 22.5 −5.3 2.5 
 Area
MonthBingeraFairymeadKalamiaMacknadeMaryboroughMossmanPlane creekVictoria Plantation
January 31.2 17.5 53.8 44.9 48.4 36.4 −15.2 12.1 
February 10.7 17.7 62.7 18.3 43.3 10.1 43.1 14.7 
March 27.6 12.1 14.6 4.1 60.7 38.1 18.7 39.3 
April −0.5 10.7 −4.8 −0.3 −0.2 46.7 −4.6 16.5 
May 9.0 5.2 −39.7 −25.7 9.5 −14.9 −24.9 −24.1 
June −7.1 −21.6 −2.2 −4.0 −25.1 −21.0 −9.8 −16.8 
July 2.8 16.7 −19.1 2.7 −4.4 −48.2 −11.0 −2.0 
August −17.0 −5.1 −1.9 29.6 1.5 13.1 −0.6 −27.5 
September 34.5 −12.8 −8.5 11.6 4.6 −0.2 −3.2 −3.8 
October 10.0 30.2 −49.4 −8.9 12.0 −25.8 16.4 −10.4 
November 3.3 −1.4 −8.2 60.3 1.2 −12.2 16.2 1.8 
December 30.4 18.6 45.8 65.8 37.4 22.5 −5.3 2.5 
Table 8

Skill score results for the eight cities used in this study, one single month optimization annual forecasts

 Area
MonthBingeraFairymeadKalamiaMacknadeMaryboroughMossmanPlane creekVictoria Plantation
January 87.8 69.6 34.1 42.4 72.0 60.1 42.8 80.5 
February 63.8 91.7 62.1 38.8 46.6 22.3 34.7 87.4 
March 57.2 40.5 86.4 46.0 77.4 62.5 31.2 79.0 
April 43.6 57.9 72.3 60.8 46.6 61.0 73.2 71.4 
May 66.8 48.5 56.0 86.9 74.8 80.4 57.5 57.5 
June 37.1 30.8 67.4 39.1 64.0 59.4 42.7 59.1 
July 53.0 53.1 51.7 33.9 34.6 81.4 53.8 48.2 
August 73.5 47.7 69.0 38.0 23.9 93.1 56.9 74.3 
September 70.5 69.7 47.2 33.8 40.0 68.5 29.3 47.8 
October 41.7 61.9 67.0 62.0 85.2 77.4 92.4 59.1 
November 35.7 60.6 67.8 56.7 53.9 51.0 75.6 69.7 
December 38.0 40.4 58.6 69.7 55.6 62.8 38.7 74.3 
 Area
MonthBingeraFairymeadKalamiaMacknadeMaryboroughMossmanPlane creekVictoria Plantation
January 87.8 69.6 34.1 42.4 72.0 60.1 42.8 80.5 
February 63.8 91.7 62.1 38.8 46.6 22.3 34.7 87.4 
March 57.2 40.5 86.4 46.0 77.4 62.5 31.2 79.0 
April 43.6 57.9 72.3 60.8 46.6 61.0 73.2 71.4 
May 66.8 48.5 56.0 86.9 74.8 80.4 57.5 57.5 
June 37.1 30.8 67.4 39.1 64.0 59.4 42.7 59.1 
July 53.0 53.1 51.7 33.9 34.6 81.4 53.8 48.2 
August 73.5 47.7 69.0 38.0 23.9 93.1 56.9 74.3 
September 70.5 69.7 47.2 33.8 40.0 68.5 29.3 47.8 
October 41.7 61.9 67.0 62.0 85.2 77.4 92.4 59.1 
November 35.7 60.6 67.8 56.7 53.9 51.0 75.6 69.7 
December 38.0 40.4 58.6 69.7 55.6 62.8 38.7 74.3 
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