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Table 3

Evaluation of the deterministic results of the raw ensemble inflow forecasts and the BMA probabilistic inflow forecasts with 1–3 d lead times

Method
Lead timeNSEMAE/(m3/s)RMSE/(m3/s)
Ensemble Calibration (2008–2011) 1 d 0.917 236 550 
2 d 0.846 338 757 
3 d 0.731 394 1033 
Validation (2012–2013) 1 d 0.778 225 466 
2 d 0.682 284 560 
3 d 0.665 310 561 
BMA probabilistic Calibration (2008–2011) 1 d 0.933 227 522 
2 d 0.861 304 726 
3 d 0.774 366 927 
Validation (2012–2013) 1 d 0.782 201 417 
2 d 0.709 247 524 
3 d 0.704 298 543 
Method
Lead timeNSEMAE/(m3/s)RMSE/(m3/s)
Ensemble Calibration (2008–2011) 1 d 0.917 236 550 
2 d 0.846 338 757 
3 d 0.731 394 1033 
Validation (2012–2013) 1 d 0.778 225 466 
2 d 0.682 284 560 
3 d 0.665 310 561 
BMA probabilistic Calibration (2008–2011) 1 d 0.933 227 522 
2 d 0.861 304 726 
3 d 0.774 366 927 
Validation (2012–2013) 1 d 0.782 201 417 
2 d 0.709 247 524 
3 d 0.704 298 543 
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