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Table 3

Cryptosporidium spp. risk assessment considering (a) fresh contamination due to accidental faecal release and (b) after 50% water turnover

Exponential dose–response models
Beta-Poisson dose–response models
r = 0.05720a,b
r = 0.00526b
r = 0.00491c
α = 0.270, β = 1.40d
α = 0.114, β = 1.04e
α = 0.145, β = 1.52b
AdultsChildrenAdultsChildrenAdultsChildrenAdultsChildrenAdultsChildrenAdultsChildren
(oocy./L)97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.
(a)
DL 1.07 × 10−3 1.83 × 10−3 9.93 × 10−5 1.69 × 10−4 9.24 × 10−5 1.58 × 10−4 3.60 × 10−3 6.12 × 10−3 2.05 × 10−3 3.45 × 10−3 1.78 × 10−3 3.02 × 10−3 
7.50 × 10−3 1.52 × 10−2 6.98 × 10−4 1.41 × 10−3 6.46 × 10−4 1.31 × 10−3 2.40 × 10−2 4.61 × 10−2 1.36 × 10−2 2.57 × 10−2 1.20 × 10−2 2.33 × 10−2 
1.11 × 10−2 2.30 × 10−2 1.03 × 10−3 2.15 × 10−3 9.66 × 10−4 1.99 × 10−3 3.49 × 10−2 6.65 × 10−2 1.96 × 10−2 3.69 × 10−2 1.75 × 10−2 3.38 × 10−2 
10 1.99 × 10−2 4.17 × 10−2 1.84 × 10−3 3.91 × 10−3 1.72 × 10−3 3.65 × 10−3 5.84 × 10−2 1.08 × 10−1 3.25 × 10−2 5.96 × 10−2 2.96 × 10−2 5.61 × 10−2 
13 2.48 × 10−2 5.29 × 10−2 2.31 × 10−3 4.96 × 10−3 2.15 × 10−3 4.63 × 10−3 7.09 × 10−2 1.30 × 10−1 3.93 × 10−2 7.09 × 10−2 3.61 × 10−2 6.76 × 10−2 
(b)
DL 4.75 × 10−4 8.17 × 10−4 4.34 × 10−5 7.39 × 10−5 4.08 × 10−5 6.90 × 10−5 1.58 × 10−3 2.69 × 10−3 9.07 × 10−4 1.55 × 10−3 7.84 × 10−4 1.33 × 10−3 
3.36 × 10−3 6.68 × 10−3 1.16 × 10−4 6.16 × 10−4 2.83 × 10−4 5.75 × 10−4 1.08 × 10−2 2.14 × 10−2 6.26 × 10−3 1.23 × 10−2 5.38 × 10−3 1.07 × 10−2 
4.93 × 10−3 1.01 × 10−2 4.54 × 10−4 9.37 × 10−4 4.24 × 10−4 8.75 × 10−4 1.60 × 10−2 3.16 × 10−2 9.02 × 10−3 1.78 × 10−2 7.96 × 10−3 1.59 × 10−2 
10 8.73 × 10−3 1.85 × 10−2 8.07 × 10−4 1.72 × 10−3 7.53 × 10−4 1.60 × 10−3 2.75 × 10−2 5.45 × 10−2 1.55 × 10−2 3.03 × 10−2 1.38 × 10−2 2.76 × 10−2 
13 1.11 × 10−2 2.34 × 10−2 1.01 × 10−3 2.18 × 10−3 9.44 × 10−4 2.20 × 10−3 3.39 × 10−2 6.68 × 10−2 1.90 × 10−2 7.82 × 10−2 1.70 × 10−2 3.40 × 10−2 
Exponential dose–response models
Beta-Poisson dose–response models
r = 0.05720a,b
r = 0.00526b
r = 0.00491c
α = 0.270, β = 1.40d
α = 0.114, β = 1.04e
α = 0.145, β = 1.52b
AdultsChildrenAdultsChildrenAdultsChildrenAdultsChildrenAdultsChildrenAdultsChildren
(oocy./L)97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.97.5th p.
(a)
DL 1.07 × 10−3 1.83 × 10−3 9.93 × 10−5 1.69 × 10−4 9.24 × 10−5 1.58 × 10−4 3.60 × 10−3 6.12 × 10−3 2.05 × 10−3 3.45 × 10−3 1.78 × 10−3 3.02 × 10−3 
7.50 × 10−3 1.52 × 10−2 6.98 × 10−4 1.41 × 10−3 6.46 × 10−4 1.31 × 10−3 2.40 × 10−2 4.61 × 10−2 1.36 × 10−2 2.57 × 10−2 1.20 × 10−2 2.33 × 10−2 
1.11 × 10−2 2.30 × 10−2 1.03 × 10−3 2.15 × 10−3 9.66 × 10−4 1.99 × 10−3 3.49 × 10−2 6.65 × 10−2 1.96 × 10−2 3.69 × 10−2 1.75 × 10−2 3.38 × 10−2 
10 1.99 × 10−2 4.17 × 10−2 1.84 × 10−3 3.91 × 10−3 1.72 × 10−3 3.65 × 10−3 5.84 × 10−2 1.08 × 10−1 3.25 × 10−2 5.96 × 10−2 2.96 × 10−2 5.61 × 10−2 
13 2.48 × 10−2 5.29 × 10−2 2.31 × 10−3 4.96 × 10−3 2.15 × 10−3 4.63 × 10−3 7.09 × 10−2 1.30 × 10−1 3.93 × 10−2 7.09 × 10−2 3.61 × 10−2 6.76 × 10−2 
(b)
DL 4.75 × 10−4 8.17 × 10−4 4.34 × 10−5 7.39 × 10−5 4.08 × 10−5 6.90 × 10−5 1.58 × 10−3 2.69 × 10−3 9.07 × 10−4 1.55 × 10−3 7.84 × 10−4 1.33 × 10−3 
3.36 × 10−3 6.68 × 10−3 1.16 × 10−4 6.16 × 10−4 2.83 × 10−4 5.75 × 10−4 1.08 × 10−2 2.14 × 10−2 6.26 × 10−3 1.23 × 10−2 5.38 × 10−3 1.07 × 10−2 
4.93 × 10−3 1.01 × 10−2 4.54 × 10−4 9.37 × 10−4 4.24 × 10−4 8.75 × 10−4 1.60 × 10−2 3.16 × 10−2 9.02 × 10−3 1.78 × 10−2 7.96 × 10−3 1.59 × 10−2 
10 8.73 × 10−3 1.85 × 10−2 8.07 × 10−4 1.72 × 10−3 7.53 × 10−4 1.60 × 10−3 2.75 × 10−2 5.45 × 10−2 1.55 × 10−2 3.03 × 10−2 1.38 × 10−2 2.76 × 10−2 
13 1.11 × 10−2 2.34 × 10−2 1.01 × 10−3 2.18 × 10−3 9.44 × 10−4 2.20 × 10−3 3.39 × 10−2 6.68 × 10−2 1.90 × 10−2 7.82 × 10−2 1.70 × 10−2 3.40 × 10−2 

aPreferred model.

bMessner et al. (2001).

cDuPont et al. (1995).

dChappell et al. (2006).

eOkhuysen et al. (2002).

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