The robustness of the three strategies has been analysed by comparing the structures implied by the strategies with those implied by the four delta-scenarios (Bruggeman et al. 2013). These four scenarios (called Steam, Busy, Warm and Quiet) combine climate change with socio-economic changes, in particular possible demographic, economic and spatial trends focusing on the years 2050 and 2100. The authors have analysed how the institutional and socio-cultural structures would change in the four delta-scenarios (Table 5) and where tensions would arise between the institutional and socio-cultural conditions implied by the strategies and those implied by the delta-scenarios. Tension means that the required conditions in the strategy are different from those in the scenario. If tensions were identified, the authors argued that the institutional and socio-cultural robustness decreased. Switching to another strategy might in that case be necessary. Therefore, the authors argued that in those cases the need to keep transfer options open, increased and proceeded with examining how these transfer options could be kept open.

Table 5

Changes in the institutional and socio-cultural structures implied by the four delta-scenarios

Structure elementsSteamBusyWarmQuiet
Infrastructural 
  • Land use

  • Water

  • Infrastructure artefacts

 
  • Urbanization, less agriculture, more nature

  • More extremes

  • Less room for water

  • More infrastructure and stronger

 
  • Urbanization, less agriculture, more nature

  • Less room for water

  • More infrastructure

 
  • More nature, less agriculture, less urbanization

  • More extremes

  • More room for water

  • Stronger infrastructure

 
  • More nature, less agriculture, less urbanization

  • More room for water

  • Less infrastructure

 
Institutional 
  • Responsibilities

  • Norms

  • Legislation

  • Policy plans

  • Budget

  • Procurement

 
  • Public Private Partnerships

  • Higher safety norms

  • Large budget for water management

 
  • Public authorities

  • Higher safety norms

  • Higher water quality norms

  • Large budget for water management

 
  • Public Private Partnerships

  • Same norms

  • Small budget for water management

 
  • Public authorities, self-supportive

  • Same norms

  • Small budget for water management

 
Social 
  • Belief systems

  • Awareness

 
  • Economy first

  • Government and private parties are responsible for water safety and supply

  • Support for large investments in water infrastructure

 
  • Sustainability first

  • Government is responsible for water safety and supply

  • Support for large investments in sustainable water infrastructure

 
  • Climate Adaptation first

  • Government and private parties are responsible for water safety and supply

  • Low support for large investments in water infrastructure

 
  • Self-supporting region first

  • Community and Government are responsible for water safety and supply

  • Low support for large investments in water infrastructure. Adaption on local scale

 
Economic 
  • Economic activity

  • Logistic

 
  • High, urban

  • High water demand

 
  • High, urban

  • High water demand

 
  • Low, agriculture

  • High water demand

 
  • Low, agriculture

  • Self-supportive

 
Knowledge 
  • Research programs

  • Simulation/forecasting software

  • Technology

 
  • High tech

 
  • High tech

 
  • Low tech

 
  • Low tech

 
Structure elementsSteamBusyWarmQuiet
Infrastructural 
  • Land use

  • Water

  • Infrastructure artefacts

 
  • Urbanization, less agriculture, more nature

  • More extremes

  • Less room for water

  • More infrastructure and stronger

 
  • Urbanization, less agriculture, more nature

  • Less room for water

  • More infrastructure

 
  • More nature, less agriculture, less urbanization

  • More extremes

  • More room for water

  • Stronger infrastructure

 
  • More nature, less agriculture, less urbanization

  • More room for water

  • Less infrastructure

 
Institutional 
  • Responsibilities

  • Norms

  • Legislation

  • Policy plans

  • Budget

  • Procurement

 
  • Public Private Partnerships

  • Higher safety norms

  • Large budget for water management

 
  • Public authorities

  • Higher safety norms

  • Higher water quality norms

  • Large budget for water management

 
  • Public Private Partnerships

  • Same norms

  • Small budget for water management

 
  • Public authorities, self-supportive

  • Same norms

  • Small budget for water management

 
Social 
  • Belief systems

  • Awareness

 
  • Economy first

  • Government and private parties are responsible for water safety and supply

  • Support for large investments in water infrastructure

 
  • Sustainability first

  • Government is responsible for water safety and supply

  • Support for large investments in sustainable water infrastructure

 
  • Climate Adaptation first

  • Government and private parties are responsible for water safety and supply

  • Low support for large investments in water infrastructure

 
  • Self-supporting region first

  • Community and Government are responsible for water safety and supply

  • Low support for large investments in water infrastructure. Adaption on local scale

 
Economic 
  • Economic activity

  • Logistic

 
  • High, urban

  • High water demand

 
  • High, urban

  • High water demand

 
  • Low, agriculture

  • High water demand

 
  • Low, agriculture

  • Self-supportive

 
Knowledge 
  • Research programs

  • Simulation/forecasting software

  • Technology

 
  • High tech

 
  • High tech

 
  • Low tech

 
  • Low tech

 

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