Summary of dose–response and valuation estimates for arsenic health effects
| Health effecta | Central estimate of annual risk per 1 μg/L as exposure | Type of statistical case (percent) | Value per statistical case, in 2017 US dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bladder cancer | Females: 2.92 × 10−6b Males: 3.41 × 10−6b | Fatal (17) | 10.7 millione |
| Nonfatal, invasive (8) | 37,500f/2,500g | ||
| Nonfatal, noninvasive (75) | 13,700f/900g | ||
| Lung cancer | Females: 4.69 × 10−6b Males: 1.98 × 10−6b | Fatal (81) | 10.7 millione |
| Nonfatal, Stage II (2) | 72,300f/900g | ||
| Nonfatal, Stage I (17) | 39,300f/900g | ||
| Skin cancer | Females: 3.52 × 10−7c Males: 7.49 × 10−7c | Nonfatal, squamous cell invasive (63) | 3,200f/400g |
| Nonfatal, squamous cell noninvasive (21) | 1,600f/300g | ||
| Nonfatal, basal cell (16) | 1,300f/300g | ||
| Ischemic heart disease mortality | Ages 0–59: 5.97 × 10−7d Ages 60 + : 1.84 × 10−5d | Fatal (100) | 10.7 millione |
| Health effecta | Central estimate of annual risk per 1 μg/L as exposure | Type of statistical case (percent) | Value per statistical case, in 2017 US dollars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bladder cancer | Females: 2.92 × 10−6b Males: 3.41 × 10−6b | Fatal (17) | 10.7 millione |
| Nonfatal, invasive (8) | 37,500f/2,500g | ||
| Nonfatal, noninvasive (75) | 13,700f/900g | ||
| Lung cancer | Females: 4.69 × 10−6b Males: 1.98 × 10−6b | Fatal (81) | 10.7 millione |
| Nonfatal, Stage II (2) | 72,300f/900g | ||
| Nonfatal, Stage I (17) | 39,300f/900g | ||
| Skin cancer | Females: 3.52 × 10−7c Males: 7.49 × 10−7c | Nonfatal, squamous cell invasive (63) | 3,200f/400g |
| Nonfatal, squamous cell noninvasive (21) | 1,600f/300g | ||
| Nonfatal, basal cell (16) | 1,300f/300g | ||
| Ischemic heart disease mortality | Ages 0–59: 5.97 × 10−7d Ages 60 + : 1.84 × 10−5d | Fatal (100) | 10.7 millione |
aBladder cancer (transitional cell carcinoma), lung cancer (non-small cell), nonmelanoma skin cancers (basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma), and cardiovascular disease (ischemic heart disease and other forms of heart disease mortality as defined by ID-10 I20-25 and I30-52).
bAnnual drinking water risk per μg/L is lifetime drinking water risk divided by life expectancy (81.1 years for females; 76.3 years for males). Lifetime drinking water risk is computed from the central oral slope factor using an ingestion rate of 2 L/day and a bodyweight of 70 kg. The central oral slope factors are 13.3 (female) and 5.3 (male) for lung cancer; 8.3 (female) and 9.1 (male) for bladder cancer; all units are risk per mg/kg-day. The oral slope factors are calculated from 1% effective dose (ED01) estimates in Table 5-3 of U.S. EPA (2010) as 0.01/ED01.
cAnnual drinking water risk per μg/L is lifetime drinking water risk divided by life expectancy (81.1 years for females; 76.3 years for males). Lifetime drinking water risk is computed from the central oral slope factor using an ingestion rate of 2 L/day and a bodyweight of 70 kg. The central oral slope factors are 1 (females) and 2 (males); all units are risk per mg/kg-day. The U.S. EPA IRIS entry reports an oral slope factor of 1.5 per mg/kg-day and lifetime drinking water unit risk of 5E-5 per μg/L.
dAnnual drinking water risk per μg/L is the baseline cardiovascular disease death rate multiplied by 
. The value of 
of 2.21 × 10−3 is derived from the cardiovascular disease (ICD-10 I20-25, I30-52) mortality HR of 1.29 per 115 μg/L increase in well water arsenic (Chen et al. 2011). Baseline ischemic disease death rate per 100,000 is 27.7 for ages 0–59 and 832 for ages 60+ (CDC WONDER National Average for 2010).
eThe U.S. EPA-estimated VSL of $4.8 million (in 1990 USD) (U.S. EPA 1999) was adjusted for inflation and real growth between 1990 and 2017.
fAuthors' cost-of-illness estimate in the year of diagnosis. See Supplementary Materials Section 3 for more information.
gAuthors' annual cost-of-illness estimate in subsequent years. See Supplementary Materials Section 3 for more information.