Estimated number of cases (cardiovascular disease mortality; bladder, lung, and skin cancer) and economic costs (2017 US dollars) due to exposure to arsenic in domestic well drinking water
| Health endpoint categoriesa . | Number of casesb . | Economic costs (2017$, millions)c . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point estimate . | Range estimate (P5–P95)d . | Point estimate . | Range estimate (P5–P95)d . | |
| Ischemic heart disease mortality | 500 | (395–576) | $4,730 | ($663–$10,200) |
| Lung cancer | ||||
| Fatal | 414 | (323–486) | $3,910 | ($544–$9,030) |
| Nonfatal: Stage 1 | 86 | (67–101) | $4.06 | ($3.17–$4.76) |
| Nonfatal: Stage 2 | 11 | (8–12) | $0.84 | ($0.658–$0.990) |
| Total | 511 | (398–599) | $3,920 | ($548–$9,040) |
| Bladder cancer | ||||
| Fatal | 82 | (64–96) | $774 | ($108–$1,790) |
| Nonfatal: invasive | 39 | (30–45) | $2.29 | ($1.79–$2.69) |
| Nonfatal: noninvasive | 359 | (280–422) | $7.81 | ($6.09–$9.16) |
| Total | 480 | (374–563) | $784 | ($115–$1,800) |
| Skin cancer | ||||
| Nonfatal: basal cell | 14 | (11–16) | $0.05 | ($0.0422–$0.0635) |
| Nonfatal: squamous cell invasive | 52 | (41–61) | $0.35 | ($0.269 – $0.405) |
| Nonfatal: squamous cell noninvasive | 17 | (13–20) | $0.07 | ($0.0526–$0.0792) |
| Total | 83 | (65–97) | $0.47 | ($0.364–$0.548) |
| Health endpoint categoriesa . | Number of casesb . | Economic costs (2017$, millions)c . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point estimate . | Range estimate (P5–P95)d . | Point estimate . | Range estimate (P5–P95)d . | |
| Ischemic heart disease mortality | 500 | (395–576) | $4,730 | ($663–$10,200) |
| Lung cancer | ||||
| Fatal | 414 | (323–486) | $3,910 | ($544–$9,030) |
| Nonfatal: Stage 1 | 86 | (67–101) | $4.06 | ($3.17–$4.76) |
| Nonfatal: Stage 2 | 11 | (8–12) | $0.84 | ($0.658–$0.990) |
| Total | 511 | (398–599) | $3,920 | ($548–$9,040) |
| Bladder cancer | ||||
| Fatal | 82 | (64–96) | $774 | ($108–$1,790) |
| Nonfatal: invasive | 39 | (30–45) | $2.29 | ($1.79–$2.69) |
| Nonfatal: noninvasive | 359 | (280–422) | $7.81 | ($6.09–$9.16) |
| Total | 480 | (374–563) | $784 | ($115–$1,800) |
| Skin cancer | ||||
| Nonfatal: basal cell | 14 | (11–16) | $0.05 | ($0.0422–$0.0635) |
| Nonfatal: squamous cell invasive | 52 | (41–61) | $0.35 | ($0.269 – $0.405) |
| Nonfatal: squamous cell noninvasive | 17 | (13–20) | $0.07 | ($0.0526–$0.0792) |
| Total | 83 | (65–97) | $0.47 | ($0.364–$0.548) |
aIschemic heart disease (defined by ICD-10 I20-25 and I30-52), lung cancer (non-small cell), bladder cancer (transitional cell carcinoma), and nonmelanoma skin cancers (basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma).
bCase values were rounded to the nearest whole number.
cValuations were rounded to three significant figures.
d5th–95th percentile range (P5–P95) reflects uncertainty in arsenic exposure for nonfatal health endpoints and uncertainty in exposure and the VSL for fatal health endpoints.