Table 2

Statistical indexes related to probability distributions of critical variables

Investment costs
Ex ante saleable gross production
Ex post saleable gross production
Variable statisticsHypothesis valuesTriangular distributionHypothesis valuesTriangular distributionHypothesis valuesTriangular distribution
Number of tests 10,000 — 10,000 — 10,000 — 
Base case 12,459,722.41 12,459,722.41 1,505,913.19 1,505,913.19 1,958,956.10 1,958,956.10 
Mean 12,457,030.81 12,459,722.41 1,331,271.78 1,330,771.87 1,906,688.80 1,904,488.29 
Median 12,455,977.92 12,459,722.41 1,354,809.88 1,355,245.98 1,910,265.88 1,907,951.86 
Mode — 12,459,722.41 — 1,505,913.19 — 1,918,920.03 
Standard deviation 253,678.54 254,333.02 146,773.93 146,435.51 161,445.60 161,347.96 
Variance 64,352,801,619.56 64,685,284,389.27 21,542,587,652.81 21,443,358,640.59 26,064,683,168.52 26,033,162,645.26 
Shift −0.01 0.00 −0.54 −0.55 −0.07 −0.05 
Kurtosis 2.40 5.40 2.40 5.40 2.41 5.40 
Coeff. of variation 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.08 
Minimum 11,845,697.01 11,836,736.29 919,997.17 918,156.15 1,509,796.26 1,502,249.93 
Maximum 13,073,101.72 13,082,708.53 1,565,807.00 1,568,246.27 2,286,853.38 2,292,294.91 
Mean standard error 2,536.79 — 1,467.74 — 1,614.46 — 
Investment costs
Ex ante saleable gross production
Ex post saleable gross production
Variable statisticsHypothesis valuesTriangular distributionHypothesis valuesTriangular distributionHypothesis valuesTriangular distribution
Number of tests 10,000 — 10,000 — 10,000 — 
Base case 12,459,722.41 12,459,722.41 1,505,913.19 1,505,913.19 1,958,956.10 1,958,956.10 
Mean 12,457,030.81 12,459,722.41 1,331,271.78 1,330,771.87 1,906,688.80 1,904,488.29 
Median 12,455,977.92 12,459,722.41 1,354,809.88 1,355,245.98 1,910,265.88 1,907,951.86 
Mode — 12,459,722.41 — 1,505,913.19 — 1,918,920.03 
Standard deviation 253,678.54 254,333.02 146,773.93 146,435.51 161,445.60 161,347.96 
Variance 64,352,801,619.56 64,685,284,389.27 21,542,587,652.81 21,443,358,640.59 26,064,683,168.52 26,033,162,645.26 
Shift −0.01 0.00 −0.54 −0.55 −0.07 −0.05 
Kurtosis 2.40 5.40 2.40 5.40 2.41 5.40 
Coeff. of variation 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.08 
Minimum 11,845,697.01 11,836,736.29 919,997.17 918,156.15 1,509,796.26 1,502,249.93 
Maximum 13,073,101.72 13,082,708.53 1,565,807.00 1,568,246.27 2,286,853.38 2,292,294.91 
Mean standard error 2,536.79 — 1,467.74 — 1,614.46 — 
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