Qualitative future changes in drought, flood and tropical cyclone risk predicted for Pacific Island nations
| Country . | Population . | Description . | Future change in drought risk . | Future change in average rainfall . | Future change in tropical cyclone risk . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Islands | 15,000 | 15 dispersed islands, low coral atolls to the north and volcanic islands to the south | Slight increase in the north and decrease in the south under a very high emissions scenarioa | Little change, possible decrease in dry season in the northb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| FSM | 105,000 | Over 600 islands ranging from mountainous volcanic islands to low coral atolls | Decreasea | Increaseb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Fiji | 887,000 | 2 large and over 300 smaller volcanic islands | Slight decreasea | No consensus, with model results spanning moderate decreases to large increasesc | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| French Polynesia | 277,000 | Over 100 islands with mixed terrain | No country-specific projections found | No country-specific projections found | No country-specific projections found |
| Guam | 173,000 | One volcanic island (544 km2) | Uncertain, but may increase if El Niño events become more intensed | Moderate increasee | Less frequent weak cyclones and more frequent strong cyclones, track location may move polewarde,f |
| Kiribati | 115,000 | 34 widely dispersed, mostly low coral islands | Overall slight decrease, but increased duration of extreme droughts under a very high emissions scenario for the Line Islandsa | Increaseb | No country-specific projections found |
| Marshall Islands | 55,000 | 34 small, low-lying islands | Decreasea | Increaseb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Nauru | 11,000 | One small raised coral atoll (21 km2) | Overall decrease, but frequency of mild droughts may increase slightly under a very low emissions scenarioa | Probable increase, with models spanning slight decrease to very large increasec | No country-specific projections found |
| New Caledonia | 272,000 | One large and five smaller islands with varying geography | No country-specific projections found | No country-specific projections found | No country-specific projections found |
| Niue | 2,000 | One raised coral atoll (269 km2) | Decrease under a very high emissions scenarioa | No consensusb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Northern Mariana Islands | 56,000 | 14 small islands, volcanic to the north and limestone to the south | No country-specific projections found, but outlook for (nearby) Guam is uncertaind | No country-specific projections found, but moderate increase projected for Guame | No country-specific projections found, but less frequent weak cyclones and more frequent strong cyclones projected for Guam, track location may move polewarde,f |
| Palau | 18,000 | 8 large and >300 smaller islands, ranging from high volcanic to low coral islands | Decreasea | Increase, especially in the wet seasonb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| PNG | 8,559,000 | >150 mostly mountainous islands, includes eastern half of New Guinea | Overall decrease, but frequency of mild droughts may increase slightly under a very low emissions scenarioa | Increase in most areasb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Samoa (and American Samoa) | 253,000 | 2 main and 20 smaller islands (Samoa), 1 main and 6 smaller islands (American Samoa), volcanic archipelago | Slight decreasea | Little change projected by most models although some show moderate increases/decreasesc | Less frequent weak cyclones and more frequent strong cyclones under moderate emissions scenarios but less frequent strong cyclones under high emissions scenariof |
| Solomon Islands | 681,000 | Archipelago with around 900 volcanic islands and small atolls | Decreasea | Slight increaseb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Tokelau | 2,000 | Three small, low-lying coral atolls | No country-specific projections found, but slight decrease projected for nearby countriesa | No country-specific projections found, no consensus for nearby countriesb,c | No country-specific projections found but decreased frequency and increased average intensity projected for nearby countriesa |
| Tonga | 100,000 | 169 islands, volcanic to the west and mostly low coral limestone to the east | Slight decreasea | No consensusb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Tuvalu | 10,000 | Three reef islands and six atolls, low-lying | Decreasea | No consensusb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Vanuatu | 282,000 | Over 80 islands of volcanic origin | Slight decreasea | No consensus, ensemble mean close to zero but some individual models predict moderate increases/decreasesc | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Wallis and Futuna | 12,000 | Two main volcanic islands | No country-specific projections found, but slight decrease projected for nearby countriesa | No country-specific projections found, no consensus for nearby countriesb,c | No country-specific projections found but decreased frequency and increased average intensity projected for nearby countriesa |
| Country . | Population . | Description . | Future change in drought risk . | Future change in average rainfall . | Future change in tropical cyclone risk . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Islands | 15,000 | 15 dispersed islands, low coral atolls to the north and volcanic islands to the south | Slight increase in the north and decrease in the south under a very high emissions scenarioa | Little change, possible decrease in dry season in the northb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| FSM | 105,000 | Over 600 islands ranging from mountainous volcanic islands to low coral atolls | Decreasea | Increaseb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Fiji | 887,000 | 2 large and over 300 smaller volcanic islands | Slight decreasea | No consensus, with model results spanning moderate decreases to large increasesc | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| French Polynesia | 277,000 | Over 100 islands with mixed terrain | No country-specific projections found | No country-specific projections found | No country-specific projections found |
| Guam | 173,000 | One volcanic island (544 km2) | Uncertain, but may increase if El Niño events become more intensed | Moderate increasee | Less frequent weak cyclones and more frequent strong cyclones, track location may move polewarde,f |
| Kiribati | 115,000 | 34 widely dispersed, mostly low coral islands | Overall slight decrease, but increased duration of extreme droughts under a very high emissions scenario for the Line Islandsa | Increaseb | No country-specific projections found |
| Marshall Islands | 55,000 | 34 small, low-lying islands | Decreasea | Increaseb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Nauru | 11,000 | One small raised coral atoll (21 km2) | Overall decrease, but frequency of mild droughts may increase slightly under a very low emissions scenarioa | Probable increase, with models spanning slight decrease to very large increasec | No country-specific projections found |
| New Caledonia | 272,000 | One large and five smaller islands with varying geography | No country-specific projections found | No country-specific projections found | No country-specific projections found |
| Niue | 2,000 | One raised coral atoll (269 km2) | Decrease under a very high emissions scenarioa | No consensusb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Northern Mariana Islands | 56,000 | 14 small islands, volcanic to the north and limestone to the south | No country-specific projections found, but outlook for (nearby) Guam is uncertaind | No country-specific projections found, but moderate increase projected for Guame | No country-specific projections found, but less frequent weak cyclones and more frequent strong cyclones projected for Guam, track location may move polewarde,f |
| Palau | 18,000 | 8 large and >300 smaller islands, ranging from high volcanic to low coral islands | Decreasea | Increase, especially in the wet seasonb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| PNG | 8,559,000 | >150 mostly mountainous islands, includes eastern half of New Guinea | Overall decrease, but frequency of mild droughts may increase slightly under a very low emissions scenarioa | Increase in most areasb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Samoa (and American Samoa) | 253,000 | 2 main and 20 smaller islands (Samoa), 1 main and 6 smaller islands (American Samoa), volcanic archipelago | Slight decreasea | Little change projected by most models although some show moderate increases/decreasesc | Less frequent weak cyclones and more frequent strong cyclones under moderate emissions scenarios but less frequent strong cyclones under high emissions scenariof |
| Solomon Islands | 681,000 | Archipelago with around 900 volcanic islands and small atolls | Decreasea | Slight increaseb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Tokelau | 2,000 | Three small, low-lying coral atolls | No country-specific projections found, but slight decrease projected for nearby countriesa | No country-specific projections found, no consensus for nearby countriesb,c | No country-specific projections found but decreased frequency and increased average intensity projected for nearby countriesa |
| Tonga | 100,000 | 169 islands, volcanic to the west and mostly low coral limestone to the east | Slight decreasea | No consensusb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Tuvalu | 10,000 | Three reef islands and six atolls, low-lying | Decreasea | No consensusb | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Vanuatu | 282,000 | Over 80 islands of volcanic origin | Slight decreasea | No consensus, ensemble mean close to zero but some individual models predict moderate increases/decreasesc | Decreased frequency but increased average intensitya,b |
| Wallis and Futuna | 12,000 | Two main volcanic islands | No country-specific projections found, but slight decrease projected for nearby countriesa | No country-specific projections found, no consensus for nearby countriesb,c | No country-specific projections found but decreased frequency and increased average intensity projected for nearby countriesa |
aAustralian Bureau of Meteorology & CSIRO (2014).
bCSIRO et al. (2015).
cEvans et al. (2016).
dPREL (2014).
eKeener et al. (2015).
fWang (2016).