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Table 4

Linear and quadratic regression equations for storage state transitions

Transition type	Linear regression		Quadratic regression
	equation	R²	Equation	R²
Depletion	P_y = 1.09 P_m + 0.03	0.869	P_y = –3.92 P_m² + 6.1 P_m–1.61	0.925
Improving	P_y = 0.36 P_m + 0.02	0.771	P_y = –1.81 P_m² + 0.94 P_m–7.97E-3	0.884
Neutral	P_y = 1.29 P_m–0.25	0.953	P_y = 1.79 P_m²–0.96 P_m + 0.43	0.967

Transition type	Linear regression		Quadratic regression
	equation	R²	Equation	R²
Depletion	P_y = 1.09 P_m + 0.03	0.869	P_y = –3.92 P_m² + 6.1 P_m–1.61	0.925
Improving	P_y = 0.36 P_m + 0.02	0.771	P_y = –1.81 P_m² + 0.94 P_m–7.97E-3	0.884
Neutral	P_y = 1.29 P_m–0.25	0.953	P_y = 1.79 P_m²–0.96 P_m + 0.43	0.967

P_y – Storage state transition probability during Yala season.

P_m – Storage state transition probability during Maha season.