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Silhouette analysis was performed for the 1980–2020 period encompassing 41 years of data, indicating that the cosine distance method yielded the optimum result for determining the cluster members (Table 1). The analysis shows that when the n_clusters are equal to 3 and 4, all the plots portray similar thickness, and hence, similar sizes as also confirmed from the labelled scatter plot (Figure 4). Other silhouettes showed more ambiguous and misleading results in deciding the proper number of clusters. With the cosine distance method, the average silhouette score and the number of negative values are 0.287 and 3, respectively, for n-clusters which equal 5. In other words, the optimum cluster number is defined based on the minimum negative values and the maximum average silhouette value.
Table 1

The silhouette analysis for the 1980–2020 period with the resulting optimum method and number of clusters (highlighted in bold and italics)

Cluster periodDistance methodSilhoutte informationCluster members
345678
1980–2020 Squared Euclidean Average silhouette value 0.412 0.387 0.398 0.402 0.392 0.316 
Number of negative value 56 44 32 25 33 30 
Cosine Average silhouette value 0.260 0.277 0.287 0.282 0.268 0.255 
Number of negative value 3 
Cityblock Average silhouette value 0.243 0.233 0.249 0.135 0.184 0.160 
Number of negative value 36 36 29 39 32 24 
Correlation Average silhouette value 0.228 0.266 0.280 0.253 0.249 0.247 
Number of negative value 17 16 14 13 
Cluster periodDistance methodSilhoutte informationCluster members
345678
1980–2020 Squared Euclidean Average silhouette value 0.412 0.387 0.398 0.402 0.392 0.316 
Number of negative value 56 44 32 25 33 30 
Cosine Average silhouette value 0.260 0.277 0.287 0.282 0.268 0.255 
Number of negative value 3 
Cityblock Average silhouette value 0.243 0.233 0.249 0.135 0.184 0.160 
Number of negative value 36 36 29 39 32 24 
Correlation Average silhouette value 0.228 0.266 0.280 0.253 0.249 0.247 
Number of negative value 17 16 14 13 
Figure 4

Silhouette plots based on cosine distance metric (left) and the visualization of clustered data for the period of 1980–2020 with n-clusters =5 (right).

Figure 4

Silhouette plots based on cosine distance metric (left) and the visualization of clustered data for the period of 1980–2020 with n-clusters =5 (right).

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