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The ERA5 data are obtained at a horizontal resolution of 0.25° longitude and latitude. All the available CMIP6 GCMs are examined and ranked based on their applicability for circulation typing in the study region. The ranking of the GCMs is based on their capability to replicate the circulation patterns and their characteristics as obtained from ERA5 reanalysis under the historical, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, experiments. GCMs that replicate the circulation patterns from ERA5 are pre-selected to be suitable for this particular study. Overall, 11 CMIP6 GCMs, outlined in Table 1, passed this test and thus are used in studying the impact of future climate change on the CTs. The GCMs were obtained at a common realization (i.e., r1i1p1f1).

Table 1

Congruence match between the PC loading vectors from the four retained components and the correlation vector that indexes the highest loading magnitude at a given PC

Data set	Historical	SSP2-4.5	SSP5-8.5
ACCESS-ESM1-5	0.99; 1.00; 0.98; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.91	1.00; 1.00; 1.00; 0.90
CanESM5	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.92	0.99; 0.99; 1.00; 0.90	0.99; 1.00; 0.99; 0.91
CESM2	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.91	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.90
EC-EARTH3-CC	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.92	0.99; 1.00; 1.00; 0.93	1.00; 0.98; 1.00; 0.95
FGOALS-g3	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.92	0.99; 1.00; 0.99; 0.91	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90
GFDL-ESM4	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.94	1.00; 1.00; 1.00; 0.90
IPSL-CM6A-LR	1.00; 1.00; 0.98; 0.93	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.91
MPI-ESM1-2-HR	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90	0.94; 1.00; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.91
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.91	0.99; 1.00; 0.98; 0.96	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90
TaiESM1	0.99; 0.99; 1.00; 0.91	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.90
NorESM2-LM	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.93	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.90
ERA5	1.00; 1.00; 1.00; 0.94	–	–

Data set	Historical	SSP2-4.5	SSP5-8.5
ACCESS-ESM1-5	0.99; 1.00; 0.98; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.91	1.00; 1.00; 1.00; 0.90
CanESM5	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.92	0.99; 0.99; 1.00; 0.90	0.99; 1.00; 0.99; 0.91
CESM2	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.91	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.90
EC-EARTH3-CC	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.92	0.99; 1.00; 1.00; 0.93	1.00; 0.98; 1.00; 0.95
FGOALS-g3	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.92	0.99; 1.00; 0.99; 0.91	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90
GFDL-ESM4	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.94	1.00; 1.00; 1.00; 0.90
IPSL-CM6A-LR	1.00; 1.00; 0.98; 0.93	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.91
MPI-ESM1-2-HR	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90	0.94; 1.00; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.91
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.91	0.99; 1.00; 0.98; 0.96	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90
TaiESM1	0.99; 0.99; 1.00; 0.91	1.00; 0.99; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.90
NorESM2-LM	1.00; 1.00; 0.99; 0.90	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.93	1.00; 0.99; 1.00; 0.90
ERA5	1.00; 1.00; 1.00; 0.94	–	–

The congruence coefficients are arranged in descending order from the first to the fourth component. Further information on the GCMs is available from Eyring et al. (2016).

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Table 2

Congruence match between the SLP composite anomaly patterns of the CTs from ERA5 and their counterparts as simulated by the individual GCMs

Data	CT1+	CT1−	CT2+	CT2−	CT3+	CT3−	CT4+	CT4−	Average
ACCESS	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.98
CanESM5	0.97	0.95	0.97	0.95	0.95	0.98	0.94	0.95	0.96
CESM2	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.97	0.99	0.98	0.99	0.99
EC-EARTH	0.99	0.98	0.96	0.99	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.98
FGOALS	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.96	0.99	0.97	0.97	0.98
GFDL	0.98	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.97	0.98	0.95	0.97
IPSL	0.99	0.96	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.98
MPI-ESM-HR	0.99	0.98	0.96	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.99	0.98
MPI-ESM-LR	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.99	0.97	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98
TaiESM1	0.99	0.98	0.95	0.99	0.95	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
NorESM2	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.98	0.99	0.93	0.96	0.98
Ensemble median	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99

Data	CT1+	CT1−	CT2+	CT2−	CT3+	CT3−	CT4+	CT4−	Average
ACCESS	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.98
CanESM5	0.97	0.95	0.97	0.95	0.95	0.98	0.94	0.95	0.96
CESM2	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.97	0.99	0.98	0.99	0.99
EC-EARTH	0.99	0.98	0.96	0.99	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.98
FGOALS	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.98	0.96	0.99	0.97	0.97	0.98
GFDL	0.98	0.96	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.97	0.98	0.95	0.97
IPSL	0.99	0.96	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.98
MPI-ESM-HR	0.99	0.98	0.96	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.99	0.98
MPI-ESM-LR	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.99	0.97	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98
TaiESM1	0.99	0.98	0.95	0.99	0.95	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
NorESM2	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.98	0.99	0.93	0.96	0.98
Ensemble median	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99

The Ensemble median is the median of the SLP composite patterns of the CTs classified from each of the individual GCMs.

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