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Figure 4 and Table 3 show that the simulated CTs under the different GCM experiments considered in this work do not deviate from what is observed in the current climate using the reanalysis data as reference (congruence match of the SLP composite patterns >0.98 in all cases indicating an excellent match). The results suggest that the reproducibility of the CTs is not constrained by future climate change under the considered emission scenarios. However, there are observable changes in the isopleth of the composite patterns of the CTs under the future warming scenarios compared to the historical ones. Hence, while future climate change will not impact the existence/stationarity of the CTs, localized changes in geographical synoptic features associated with the CTs are plausible. To further investigate projected changes in the spatial structure of the CTs, Figure 5 shows the difference between the historical CTs and their counterparts under future climate change. It can be seen that the spatial structure of the composite patterns of the CTs changed in the future emission scenarios, relative to the historical patterns, and the change is more robust under the higher warming scenario. In Supplementary Material, Figs. A2 and A3, it can be seen from the austral summer dominant CTs that when the Angola low is well expressed (e.g., CT1−, CT2+, and CT4−), northwest winds are evident. The westerly winds typically transport the moisture feeding into the low to the subtropical parts of southern Africa. Figure 5 shows an anomalous increase in SLP over Angola under the future climate change scenarios, suggesting a weakening of the cyclonic system over Angola. The weakening of the Angola low can impact the rate at which westerly moisture fluxes converge with easterly moisture fluxes driven by the western branch of the Mascarene high. This can have a direct impact on the strength of the South Indian Ocean convergence Zone.
Table 3

Congruence match between the SLP composite anomaly patterns of the CTs from the ERA5 and the counterparts from the ensemble median SLP composite anomaly patterns of the simulated CTs under different emission scenarios

DataCT1+CT1−CT2+CT2−CT3+CT3−CT4+CT4−
    ERA5     
Historical 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 
SSP2-4.5 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 
SSP5-8.5 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.99 
    Historical     
SSP2-4.5 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 
SSP5-8.5 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 
DataCT1+CT1−CT2+CT2−CT3+CT3−CT4+CT4−
    ERA5     
Historical 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 
SSP2-4.5 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 
SSP5-8.5 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.99 
    Historical     
SSP2-4.5 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 
SSP5-8.5 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 
Figure 4

SLP composite patterns of the CTs from ERA5 and the ensemble median of the 11 GCMs under the historical analysis and SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 emission scenarios. The ensemble median is calculated as the median of SLP composite patterns of the CTs simulated by each of the 11 GCMs under each of the experiments.

Figure 4

SLP composite patterns of the CTs from ERA5 and the ensemble median of the 11 GCMs under the historical analysis and SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 emission scenarios. The ensemble median is calculated as the median of SLP composite patterns of the CTs simulated by each of the 11 GCMs under each of the experiments.

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Figure 5

Difference between the SLP composite patterns of the historical CTs and their counterparts under the future emission scenarios (i.e., SLP composite of the CTs under future climate change minus the SLP composites of the same CTs under the historical analysis). Only values exceeding the 90% confidence limit based on the permutation test are plotted.

Figure 5

Difference between the SLP composite patterns of the historical CTs and their counterparts under the future emission scenarios (i.e., SLP composite of the CTs under future climate change minus the SLP composites of the same CTs under the historical analysis). Only values exceeding the 90% confidence limit based on the permutation test are plotted.

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