The future period is divided into three: near-term (2021–2040), medium-term (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods. The mean values of extreme precipitation indices in the Yangtze River Basin during different periods are shown in Table 3. Compared with the observed data, the average values of PRCPTOT and R95p increase in the future with the average increase rates of 30.54 and 51.09%, respectively. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the increase rate of PRCPTOT is the largest in the long term, increasing from 1,073 mm in the historical period to 1,504 mm, with a rate of 40.14%. The increase rates of R95p in three future periods are 44.11, 50.01 and 56.82%, respectively, showing an increasing trend with time. The main increase period of R95p in the Yangtze River Basin is from 2071 to 2100, while for R50 and RX5day, although they show the long-term upward trends, their mean values in the future are lower than that in the historical period (Table 3). Figure 4 and Table 3 suggest that the increase of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin in the future is mainly due to the increase of heavy precipitation, but the duration of extreme precipitation will decrease.

Table 3

The average of extreme precipitation indexes in the Yangtze River Basin under five scenarios

IndexPRCPTOT/mm
R50/day
R95p/mm
RX5day/mm
Period2021–20402041–20702071–21002021–21002021–20402041–20702071–21002021–21002021–20402041–20702071–21002021–21002021–20402041–20702071–21002021–2100
SSP1-1.9 1,371 1,431 1,439 1,419 1.08 1.18 1.20 1.16 383.3 401.5 403.7 397.8 50.7 51.8 51.8 51.5 
SSP1-2.6 1,352 1,429 1,455 1,419 1.07 1.24 1.30 1.22 382.3 404.3 411.7 401.6 50.6 53.0 53.0 52.4 
SSP2-4.5 1,319 1,372 1,442 1,385 1.02 1.25 1.44 1.26 380.5 396.0 417.3 400.1 49.9 52.7 54.8 52.8 
SSP3-7.0 1,308 1,342 1,423 1,364 1.03 1.27 1.67 1.36 387.1 396.9 421.5 403.7 50.1 53.6 58.7 54.6 
SSP5-8.5 1,336 1,383 1,504 1,417 1.02 1.31 1.98 1.49 396.1 409.6 445.2 419.6 50.1 53.8 62.5 56.1 
IndexPRCPTOT/mm
R50/day
R95p/mm
RX5day/mm
Period2021–20402041–20702071–21002021–21002021–20402041–20702071–21002021–21002021–20402041–20702071–21002021–21002021–20402041–20702071–21002021–2100
SSP1-1.9 1,371 1,431 1,439 1,419 1.08 1.18 1.20 1.16 383.3 401.5 403.7 397.8 50.7 51.8 51.8 51.5 
SSP1-2.6 1,352 1,429 1,455 1,419 1.07 1.24 1.30 1.22 382.3 404.3 411.7 401.6 50.6 53.0 53.0 52.4 
SSP2-4.5 1,319 1,372 1,442 1,385 1.02 1.25 1.44 1.26 380.5 396.0 417.3 400.1 49.9 52.7 54.8 52.8 
SSP3-7.0 1,308 1,342 1,423 1,364 1.03 1.27 1.67 1.36 387.1 396.9 421.5 403.7 50.1 53.6 58.7 54.6 
SSP5-8.5 1,336 1,383 1,504 1,417 1.02 1.31 1.98 1.49 396.1 409.6 445.2 419.6 50.1 53.8 62.5 56.1 

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