In addition, the changes of disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin in different periods are mainly manifested in the decrease of low-risk areas (Levels I and II) and the increase of medium-risk areas (Levels III and IV) (Table 4). Under the scenarios of SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, the area of risk Level IV continues to expand in the western Sichuan Basin from the near term to the medium term and in the long term, the area of risk Level IV increases to 34.79% and 34.00%, respectively. Under the scenario of SSP2-4.5, compared with the near term, the area of risk Levels III and IV increased by 3.98% in the future long term and with the expansion of the medium-risk area, the area of risk Level II in the southwest of the Yangtze River Basin decreased from 15.92% in the near term to 13.40% in the medium term and even to 12.50% in the long term. It is worth noting that the area of risk Level V shows an obvious expansion trend under the scenarios of SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and continues to expand to the Dongting Lake Basin, the Han River Basin and the middle and lower main streams of the Yangtze River. In the long term, the area of risk Level V increase to 11.36% and 12.02%, respectively, which is twice as much as that in the near term.
Area of different risk levels in different periods in the Yangtze River Basin
Risk level . | SSP1-1.9 . | SSP1-2.6 . | SSP2-4.5 . | SSP3-7.0 . | SSP5-8.5 . | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | 2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | 2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | 2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | 2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | |
I | 25.4 | 25.9 | 25.2 | 25.8 | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.6 | 24.9 | 24.0 | 26.5 | 24.4 | 23.9 | 25.6 | 24.9 | 23.8 |
II | 28.8 | 24.4 | 21.5 | 29.7 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 28.7 | 24.1 | 22.5 | 41.4 | 25.5 | 21.3 | 36.4 | 29.3 | 23.5 |
III | 56.1 | 55.3 | 53.1 | 53.9 | 54.3 | 53.7 | 54.2 | 54.6 | 54.0 | 45.2 | 53.4 | 54.0 | 49.5 | 52.9 | 52.8 |
IV | 52.3 | 59.4 | 62.6 | 54.9 | 61.1 | 61.2 | 57.4 | 60.6 | 64.8 | 57.8 | 59.6 | 60.4 | 56.2 | 58.6 | 58.3 |
V | 17.4 | 14.9 | 17.7 | 15.7 | 14.6 | 14.9 | 14.2 | 15.9 | 14.7 | 9.1 | 17.1 | 20.5 | 12.2 | 14.2 | 21.6 |
Risk level . | SSP1-1.9 . | SSP1-2.6 . | SSP2-4.5 . | SSP3-7.0 . | SSP5-8.5 . | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | 2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | 2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | 2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | 2021–2040 . | 2041–2070 . | 2071–2100 . | |
I | 25.4 | 25.9 | 25.2 | 25.8 | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.6 | 24.9 | 24.0 | 26.5 | 24.4 | 23.9 | 25.6 | 24.9 | 23.8 |
II | 28.8 | 24.4 | 21.5 | 29.7 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 28.7 | 24.1 | 22.5 | 41.4 | 25.5 | 21.3 | 36.4 | 29.3 | 23.5 |
III | 56.1 | 55.3 | 53.1 | 53.9 | 54.3 | 53.7 | 54.2 | 54.6 | 54.0 | 45.2 | 53.4 | 54.0 | 49.5 | 52.9 | 52.8 |
IV | 52.3 | 59.4 | 62.6 | 54.9 | 61.1 | 61.2 | 57.4 | 60.6 | 64.8 | 57.8 | 59.6 | 60.4 | 56.2 | 58.6 | 58.3 |
V | 17.4 | 14.9 | 17.7 | 15.7 | 14.6 | 14.9 | 14.2 | 15.9 | 14.7 | 9.1 | 17.1 | 20.5 | 12.2 | 14.2 | 21.6 |