The two models (RCA4 and CCCma) project an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures, regardless of the period and the scenario considered (Figure 10 and Table 10). In general, this temperature rise will gradually increase over the decades, and only peak towards the end of the century (Figure 11). The RCP8.5 scenario also appears to be the one for which the increase is greater, especially after the 1960s (Table 10 and Figure 11). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average maximum temperature of the 2100 decade exceeds 35°, regardless of the model considered. However, it does not exceed 32° under the RCP4.5 scenario (Figure 11). The observation is practically the same for minimum temperatures. Those predicted by the two models under the RCP8.5 scenario are generally about 2° higher than those predicted under the RCP4.5 scenario during the last two decades of the century. Seasonally, both models predict a larger increase in winter and spring minimum temperatures. For maximum temperatures, on the other hand, the expected increase is almost regular throughout the year (Figure 10).
Changes in temperatures (°C) across the two RCMs in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios
RCMs . | RCP4.5 . | RCP8.5 . | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2022–2060 . | 2061–2100 . | 2022–2060 . | 2061–2100 . | |
Tmax | ||||
RCA4 | +3.9 | +5.7 | +4.1 | +7.6 |
CCCma | +3.6 | +4.6 | +4.1 | +7 |
Tmin | ||||
RCA4 | +1.5 | +3.3 | +1.7 | +5.3 |
CCCma | +1 | +1.9 | +1.4 | +3.7 |
RCMs . | RCP4.5 . | RCP8.5 . | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2022–2060 . | 2061–2100 . | 2022–2060 . | 2061–2100 . | |
Tmax | ||||
RCA4 | +3.9 | +5.7 | +4.1 | +7.6 |
CCCma | +3.6 | +4.6 | +4.1 | +7 |
Tmin | ||||
RCA4 | +1.5 | +3.3 | +1.7 | +5.3 |
CCCma | +1 | +1.9 | +1.4 | +3.7 |