First, change points in the data series for All India and Homogenous regions at annual and monsoon season scales were identified by using the Pettitt test and the results are given in Table 3. Change points were found to be significant in three cases only – Central NE India – monsoon season and NE India for both annual and monsoon. For most regions, the year of change corresponds to 1957 to 1965; for the data series of North-West India region, the change year corresponds to 1942. It is conjectured that the period 1950 to 1965 was the time when many large industries were set up in India and many water resources projects (dams and diversions) were constructed. In order to feed the rising population, much emphasis was given to increasing agricultural production by expanding agricultural areas and irrigation. Such changes might be one of the reasons behind the changes in the processes that impact rainfall. Of course, the rainfall in a region also depends on teleconnections. More about this topic will be discussed in the attribution section.
Results of the Pettitt test for All India – annual and monsoon rainfall series
Region . | Change point . | |
---|---|---|
Location . | p-value . | |
All India – Annual | 94 | 0.5063 |
Monsoon data series | 94 | 0.2993 |
North-West – Annual | 71 | 0.4917 |
Monsoon data series | 71 | 0.7149 |
West Central – Annual | 94 | 0.2777 |
Monsoon data series | 94 | 0.3144 |
Central NE – Annual | 93 | 0.1004 |
Monsoon data series | 94 | 0.0474a |
Peninsular – Annual | 44 | 0.7333 |
Monsoon data series | 75 | 0.7249 |
NE – Annual | 86 | 0.008a |
Monsoon data series | 86 | 0.005a |
Region . | Change point . | |
---|---|---|
Location . | p-value . | |
All India – Annual | 94 | 0.5063 |
Monsoon data series | 94 | 0.2993 |
North-West – Annual | 71 | 0.4917 |
Monsoon data series | 71 | 0.7149 |
West Central – Annual | 94 | 0.2777 |
Monsoon data series | 94 | 0.3144 |
Central NE – Annual | 93 | 0.1004 |
Monsoon data series | 94 | 0.0474a |
Peninsular – Annual | 44 | 0.7333 |
Monsoon data series | 75 | 0.7249 |
NE – Annual | 86 | 0.008a |
Monsoon data series | 86 | 0.005a |
aSignificant at 5% significance level.