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Table 6

Relationship between changes in verification metrics and forecast performance

Performance improvementVerification metrics
Improved goodness-of-fit (regression line of the forecast better approximates the observations)  Index of Agreement (IoA)
 
  Coefficient of determination (R2)
 
  Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) 
Improved accuracy (reduced error measures)  Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
 
  Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)
 
  Percent Bias (PBIAS)
 
  Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)
 
  Brier Score (BS) 
Improved reliability  False Alarm Ratio (FAR) 
Improved discrimination attribute  Probability of Detection (POD) 
Performance improvementVerification metrics
Improved goodness-of-fit (regression line of the forecast better approximates the observations)  Index of Agreement (IoA)
 
  Coefficient of determination (R2)
 
  Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) 
Improved accuracy (reduced error measures)  Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
 
  Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)
 
  Percent Bias (PBIAS)
 
  Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)
 
  Brier Score (BS) 
Improved reliability  False Alarm Ratio (FAR) 
Improved discrimination attribute  Probability of Detection (POD) 

Increase, decrease.

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