In the context of climate change, estimations of FDCs in terms of probable futures, as well as possible changes in variation patterns of monthly runoff, are extremely important. The precipitation scenarios generated from seven GCMs (Figure 7) offer a sufficient diversity to show how FDCs and average monthly runoff patterns can be projected into the future using the suggested approach. To demonstrate the approach, these scenarios, having a moderate predictive performance by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (0.69–0.77) between the simulated and observed annual precipitation, are acceptable (e.g., Chen et al. 2012; Du et al. 2015). We estimated the proportion of deficit/non-deficit precipitation years for the future period 2010–2099 (relative to the average annual precipitation for the observation period) for each scenario (Table 5). Based on a strong correlation between P_ann and Q_ann, we assume that these proportions are applied as weights for deficit/non-deficit runoff years.