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In the context of climate change, estimations of FDCs in terms of probable futures, as well as possible changes in variation patterns of monthly runoff, are extremely important. The precipitation scenarios generated from seven GCMs (Figure 7) offer a sufficient diversity to show how FDCs and average monthly runoff patterns can be projected into the future using the suggested approach. To demonstrate the approach, these scenarios, having a moderate predictive performance by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (0.69–0.77) between the simulated and observed annual precipitation, are acceptable (e.g., Chen et al. 2012; Du et al. 2015). We estimated the proportion of deficit/non-deficit precipitation years for the future period 2010–2099 (relative to the average annual precipitation for the observation period) for each scenario (Table 5). Based on a strong correlation between Pann and Qann, we assume that these proportions are applied as weights for deficit/non-deficit runoff years.
Table 5

Percent of deficit/non-deficit years for the GCM scenarios

River
Weihe
Beijiang
Qingjiang
ScenarioDeficitNon-deficitDeficitNon-deficitDeficitNon-deficit
CanESM2 93 30 70 86 14 
CCSM4 76 24 96 99 
CNRM-CM5 92 92 60 40 
GFDL-ESM2M 83 17 76 24 92 
MIROC-ESM 99 11 89 39 61 
MIROC-ESM-CHEM 94 93 94 
NorESM1-M 59 41 40 60 47 53 
Present 56 44 64 36 53 47 
River
Weihe
Beijiang
Qingjiang
ScenarioDeficitNon-deficitDeficitNon-deficitDeficitNon-deficit
CanESM2 93 30 70 86 14 
CCSM4 76 24 96 99 
CNRM-CM5 92 92 60 40 
GFDL-ESM2M 83 17 76 24 92 
MIROC-ESM 99 11 89 39 61 
MIROC-ESM-CHEM 94 93 94 
NorESM1-M 59 41 40 60 47 53 
Present 56 44 64 36 53 47 
Figure 7

Precipitation scenarios (upper) and percent of years with annual precipitation deficit at present and under different scenarios (lower).

Figure 7

Precipitation scenarios (upper) and percent of years with annual precipitation deficit at present and under different scenarios (lower).

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