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Figure 8 shows the weighted average FDCs, where the proportions (Table 5) are applied to the discerned FDCs for deficit and non-deficit years (Figure 6). The discrepancies in the average FDCs for different scenarios are rather large, especially for low durations (Table 6). An example in Figure 9 clearly illustrates the discrepancies for the 10% low duration. As FDC is one of the basic tools for water management, the identified range of uncertainties may be useful for risk assessment studies.
Table 6

Runoff (m3/s) for different durations at present and for the GCM scenarios

GCMs
Duration (%)PresentCanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5GFDL-ESM2MMIROC-ESMMIROC-ESM-CHEMNorESM1-M
Weihe 
 90 32.3 23.2 27.9 23.5 26.0 21.6 23.0 32.6 
 75 59.1 43.3 51.5 43.8 48.1 40.5 42.9 59.6 
 50 118.5 85.6 102.5 86.6 95.5 79.6 84.6 119.5 
 25 235.8 167.3 202.6 169.4 188.1 154.8 165.2 237.9 
 10 445.1 312.1 380.6 316.2 352.4 288.0 308.1 449.1 
Beijiang 
 90 259.7 276.6 228.8 292.6 243.3 290.4 230.9 269.4 
 75 362.5 396.2 301.0 427.9 329.9 423.6 305.3 381.8 
 50 630.2 698.8 504.9 763.4 563.6 754.6 513.7 669.4 
 25 1,274.6 1,406.8 1,033.0 1,531.4 1,146.3 1,514.4 1,050.0 1,350.1 
 10 2,468.3 2,709.0 2,028.1 2,935.9 2,234.4 2,905.0 2,059.0 2,605.8 
Qingjiang 
 90 47.5 44.0 42.7 46.7 43.4 48.8 43.2 48.0 
 75 72.0 64.8 62.0 70.3 63.5 74.7 63.1 73.0 
 50 139.2 123.3 117.2 135.3 120.5 145.1 119.6 141.4 
 25 298.5 257.0 241.2 288.5 249.7 314.0 247.3 304.3 
 10 643.9 535.0 493.7 617.6 516.0 684.4 509.6 658.9 
GCMs
Duration (%)PresentCanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5GFDL-ESM2MMIROC-ESMMIROC-ESM-CHEMNorESM1-M
Weihe 
 90 32.3 23.2 27.9 23.5 26.0 21.6 23.0 32.6 
 75 59.1 43.3 51.5 43.8 48.1 40.5 42.9 59.6 
 50 118.5 85.6 102.5 86.6 95.5 79.6 84.6 119.5 
 25 235.8 167.3 202.6 169.4 188.1 154.8 165.2 237.9 
 10 445.1 312.1 380.6 316.2 352.4 288.0 308.1 449.1 
Beijiang 
 90 259.7 276.6 228.8 292.6 243.3 290.4 230.9 269.4 
 75 362.5 396.2 301.0 427.9 329.9 423.6 305.3 381.8 
 50 630.2 698.8 504.9 763.4 563.6 754.6 513.7 669.4 
 25 1,274.6 1,406.8 1,033.0 1,531.4 1,146.3 1,514.4 1,050.0 1,350.1 
 10 2,468.3 2,709.0 2,028.1 2,935.9 2,234.4 2,905.0 2,059.0 2,605.8 
Qingjiang 
 90 47.5 44.0 42.7 46.7 43.4 48.8 43.2 48.0 
 75 72.0 64.8 62.0 70.3 63.5 74.7 63.1 73.0 
 50 139.2 123.3 117.2 135.3 120.5 145.1 119.6 141.4 
 25 298.5 257.0 241.2 288.5 249.7 314.0 247.3 304.3 
 10 643.9 535.0 493.7 617.6 516.0 684.4 509.6 658.9 
Figure 8

Average FDCs under different scenarios.

Figure 8

Average FDCs under different scenarios.

Figure 9

Differences (%) in the runoff with the 10% duration between the FDCs under different scenarios.

Figure 9

Differences (%) in the runoff with the 10% duration between the FDCs under different scenarios.

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