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Domain mean changes in daily discharges from 1980–2009 to 2041–2070 are shown in Table 2. The results show that several of the GCM-RCM and MOS-method combinations project decreases in the annual mean discharge. These values are somewhat lower than the results obtained in recent literature (Donnelly et al. 2013; van Vliet et al. 2015). However, there are large regional variations. In Norway, discharges seem to mainly increase, while in southern Sweden and Denmark discharges are projected to decrease (not shown). Variations between the GCM-RCMs are also substantial (as also seen by van Vliet et al. (2015)). Some models project increases also at annual level, which underlines the uncertainty related to the choice of the GCM-RCM component.

Table 2

Relative changes in the annual mean river discharge for each GCM-RCM and MOS-method combination from years 1980–2009 to 2041–2070

 Annual mean change (%)
DCDQBQAll
CNRM-RM5.1 −8.64% −7.18% −7.84% − 7.77% 
ETHZ-CLM −4.08% −2.53% −0.75% − 2.45% 
METO-HC-Q3 6.15% 7.40% 8.94% 7.50% 
METO-HC-Q16 −12.72% −9.72% −9.14% − 10.53% 
MPI-M-REMO −8.24% −6.86% −4.82% − 6.64% 
SMHIRCA-B −1.17% 2.46% 0.66% 0.65% 
All − 4.78% − 2.74% − 2.10% − 3.21% 
 Annual mean change (%)
DCDQBQAll
CNRM-RM5.1 −8.64% −7.18% −7.84% − 7.77% 
ETHZ-CLM −4.08% −2.53% −0.75% − 2.45% 
METO-HC-Q3 6.15% 7.40% 8.94% 7.50% 
METO-HC-Q16 −12.72% −9.72% −9.14% − 10.53% 
MPI-M-REMO −8.24% −6.86% −4.82% − 6.64% 
SMHIRCA-B −1.17% 2.46% 0.66% 0.65% 
All − 4.78% − 2.74% − 2.10% − 3.21% 

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