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Climate change may influence flood occurrences through its effects on the variability of storm characteristics and the seasonality of rainfall and evapotranspiration, which affect the antecedent watershed conditions for individual storm events (Marchi et al. 2010). Assessments of the influences of climatic factors on hydrologic variables, such as precipitation and flow, are usually undertaken to interpret changes in these variables. To explore possible climatic causes of the annual peak flow changes in BRB, five climatic indices were selected after considering global and regional climate characteristics, i.e. EASMI, SASMI, SCSSMI, MEI and DMI. We used MLR to investigate the relationships between annual peak flows in the Fenshi, Lishi, Pingshi stations and these indices, and the contributions of these indices to peak flows. We did not consider the Shijiao station series because this station should be influenced by the Feilaixia reservoir, where the effect of the subjective operation may be greater than the climate change impact. The results indicate that the five indices, except the SCSSMI, may positively influence peak flows (Table 6). Of all the indices, SASMI contributed the most to the peak flow changes; a strengthened/weakened South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) may increase/decrease peak flows at the Fenshi, Lishi and Pingshi Stations in BRB.

Table 6

Contributions of the five climatic indices to the peak flows at the Fenshi, Pingshi and Lishi stations

StationIndicesEASMISASMISCSSMIMEIDMI
Fenshi Coefficient 0.024 0.334 0.152 0.147 0.089 
Contribution 0.033 0.447 0.204 0.197 0.119 
Pingshi Coefficient 0.203 0.347 −0.101 0.198 0.021 
Contribution 0.234 0.399 0.116 0.227 0.024 
Lishi Coefficient 0.129 0.283 −0.070 0.131 0.075 
Contribution 0.188 0.411 0.102 0.190 0.109 
StationIndicesEASMISASMISCSSMIMEIDMI
Fenshi Coefficient 0.024 0.334 0.152 0.147 0.089 
Contribution 0.033 0.447 0.204 0.197 0.119 
Pingshi Coefficient 0.203 0.347 −0.101 0.198 0.021 
Contribution 0.234 0.399 0.116 0.227 0.024 
Lishi Coefficient 0.129 0.283 −0.070 0.131 0.075 
Contribution 0.188 0.411 0.102 0.190 0.109 

Coefficient means MLR coefficient. Magnitude of contribution is calculated according to Equation (3).

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