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Considering the available data, the agreement between the observed and simulated discharge is very good, with NSE and RMSE values of 0.92 and 1.36 m3 s−1, respectively (Table 2). The 95% confidence interval for NSE [0.88–0.94] indicates that the goodness-of-fit evaluation moves from good to very good with no bias or outliers. The value of ANSE equal to 0.81 shows that the model was reliable in reproducing both the peak and the shape of the observed hydrographs, particularly during high flow conditions that correspond to flood events.

Table 2

Goodness-of-fit evaluation of the MISDc hydrological model applied on the Seveso catchment. The NSE probability distribution obtained by bootstrapping and the corresponding NSE statistical significance are also shown

Performance ratingNSE range by Ritter & Muñoz-Carpena (2013) Probability of fit being (%)
Calibration period (from 2005 to 2010) 
 Very good 0.900–1.000 86.8% 
 Good 0.800–0.899 13.2% 
 Acceptable 0.650–0.799 0.0% 
 Unsatisfactory < 0.650 0.0% (P-value = 0.000) 
 Goodness-of-fit evaluation RMSE: 1.36 [1.14–1.68]* NSE: 0.92 [0.88–0.94]* Presence of outliers: (Q-test): NO Model bias: NO 
Validation period (from 2011 to 2015) 
 Very good 0.900–1.000 90.5% 
 Good 0.800–0.899 9.5% 
 Acceptable 0.650–0.799 0.0% 
 Unsatisfactory < 0.650 0.0% (P-value = 0.000) 
 Goodness-of-fit evaluation RMSE: 1.58 [1.31–2.06]* NSE: 0.91 [0.87–0.95]* Presence of outliers: (Q-test): YES** Model bias: NO 
Performance ratingNSE range by Ritter & Muñoz-Carpena (2013) Probability of fit being (%)
Calibration period (from 2005 to 2010) 
 Very good 0.900–1.000 86.8% 
 Good 0.800–0.899 13.2% 
 Acceptable 0.650–0.799 0.0% 
 Unsatisfactory < 0.650 0.0% (P-value = 0.000) 
 Goodness-of-fit evaluation RMSE: 1.36 [1.14–1.68]* NSE: 0.92 [0.88–0.94]* Presence of outliers: (Q-test): NO Model bias: NO 
Validation period (from 2011 to 2015) 
 Very good 0.900–1.000 90.5% 
 Good 0.800–0.899 9.5% 
 Acceptable 0.650–0.799 0.0% 
 Unsatisfactory < 0.650 0.0% (P-value = 0.000) 
 Goodness-of-fit evaluation RMSE: 1.58 [1.31–2.06]* NSE: 0.91 [0.87–0.95]* Presence of outliers: (Q-test): YES** Model bias: NO 

*95% confidence interval.

**Presence of outliers (Q-test): present and maybe affecting indicators. Potential outlier at: (108.35, 10.81).

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