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MISDc was tested for flood forecasting operations considering the whole period of data available. The results of the reliability analysis are shown in Table 3. In terms of skill scores, the results estimate an acceptable performance. POD, FOH, FOM and FAR reached the values of 0.57, 0.88, 0.43 and 0.12, respectively. A positive result is that POD is greater than FAR, therefore the probability of flood event detection is greater than the false alarms. The scores are similar to those obtained by Norbiato et al. (2008), Vincendon et al. (2009) and Werner & Cranston (2009), which highlighted a POD value greater than 0.5 and a FAR value lower than 0.5.

Table 3

The contingency table adopted to estimate flood forecasting performance

 # Flood observed   
# Flood forecast  Yes No Total 
 Yes H = 29 F = 4 33 
 No M = 22 Q = 60 82 
 Total 51 64 115 
 # Flood observed   
# Flood forecast  Yes No Total 
 Yes H = 29 F = 4 33 
 No M = 22 Q = 60 82 
 Total 51 64 115 

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