There have been many droughts in China that have caused severe losses. Previous studies evaluating droughts were from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. We measure the Chinese drought of 2000 based on a static computable general equilibrium model of China's macroeconomy, which describes the relationships between drought, agricultural production, and rural households' welfare from an economic perspective. In the model, the irrigation water inputs of the 16 regions of China are estimated and combined with the same regions' cropland inputs. Thus, the drought is simulated as an external impact by reducing the productivity of different crops in different regions. The reductions in 10 crop outputs and the rural households' welfare, total consumption and food consumption from 16 regions are more severe than those from a perfect market reaction. The findings herein are also distinct in that the five rural households that suffer most as a result of drought are from southern areas. The results provide an available reference for the Chinese government's decision on what measures to take to prevent drought and its impacts. The model can be further improved by incorporating meteorological and hydrological models to identify droughts using more accurate indexes.
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Research Article|
February 08 2016
Measuring drought based on a CGE model with multi-regional irrigation water
Shuai Zhong;
Shuai Zhong
aSchool of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
bKey Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources (Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics, China University of Geosciences Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
cInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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Jinghua Sha;
Jinghua Sha
*
aSchool of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
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Lei Shen;
Lei Shen
cInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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Mitsuru Okiyama;
Mitsuru Okiyama
dReitaku Institute of Political Economics and Social Studies, Reitaku University, 2-1-1, Hikarigaoka, Kashiwa, Chiba-ken 277-8686, Japan
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Suminori Tokunaga;
Suminori Tokunaga
eFaculty of Economics and Business Administration, Reitaku University, 2-1-1, Hikarigaoka, Kashiwa, Chiba-ken 277-8686, Japan
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Jingjing Yan;
Jingjing Yan
aSchool of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
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Litao Liu
Litao Liu
cInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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Water Policy (2016) 18 (4): 877–891.
Article history
Received:
May 21 2015
Accepted:
December 15 2015
Citation
Shuai Zhong, Jinghua Sha, Lei Shen, Mitsuru Okiyama, Suminori Tokunaga, Jingjing Yan, Litao Liu; Measuring drought based on a CGE model with multi-regional irrigation water. Water Policy 1 August 2016; 18 (4): 877–891. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2016.120
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